Ahh... so the ones where I was subtly making fun of everyone jumping on Bler144 for committing the horrible sin of talking about No Lynch on the first Day of a GOG Mafia game. I thought you might have meant the one where I professed wishing he had drawn out his voting joke a little longer, so I could watch people squirm some more.

Interesting choice. I wouldn't have suspected you would have picked that one.

Just a quick post before bed... I got pretty busy today around lunchtime and kept trying to read up but didn't have much of a chance to organize a post...

So JMich's bizarre vote on Wyrm gets noticed, and even shakes me a bit... and then just now RW posts the most limp-wristed drizzle of a post I've seen in a long year... all I can think is... "Wyrm, you lucky bastard!"

I will wait to see what JMich has to say overnight. Hope Vitek gives us at least until the weekend so we can get more players back in. Crazy times, crazy times... but this is why we do this!

1) Not amused? Why in heaven's name might that be?

2) And who is this bier person? Though that name is pretty ominous, referring to burials and all. It also refers to beer, but of course in German. And German leads to Nazis and Nazis lead to death. Ominous, indeed.

3) oh, you mean me. well, as for distancing, i'm not sure what you think I'm distancing myself from, given that my vote was originally for that which shall not be named or even referred to. So I'm distancing myself from...nobody? That would be a devious play - very devious indeed. Perhaps nobody and I are on the same team...best monitor that closely.

3) My answer to your more serious question ties back into flub's question, which I assumed I would respond to when someone picked it up again. Which no one did. If I were vigilante with only 1 shot, I wouldn't use it on RW, no. If I had 2 shots, maybe. Not so much because the odds of hunching right are good (they're not) but as a defensive play in the off chance I get knocked out in the first two days. Which, given my playstyle, is probably a decent bet. So if I had three shots, definitely. Plus I'd know the odds of anyone else being guilty for me with the shot are slightly higher than average since they'd be m/(n-1) rather than m/n. With three shots, darn right I'm shootin'.

Now, that said, that's not the task at hand, where however smart we think we are or how much we really think we know, the odds of us collectively lynching right are still just m / n. If a non-vote is so verboten so as to be beyond the pale (at long last, sir, have I no decency?), then my task is really to assess not who is definitively guilty, nor even more likely than not, but just who strikes me as in the pool where P>(m/13).

Knowing my own innocence, I look around the table and see the average likelihood of guilt in the pool as being m/13, and assuming m =4, that's 31%. I weigh the odds of RW being guilty at about 35-40%. Lynch him and more likely than not he comes up town. There's no way around that, with any of us. We're all more likely to turn up town than not.

Which is partly why I find the debate between JMich and yog a bit farcical. Though as a purely logical matter, JMich's statement on theory testing is indeed true, the whole gambit in my mind seems somewhat to rely on the assumption that wyrm's guilt is a 50/50 proposition, when from the group's perspective as much as anybody else the reality is that there's a 70% chance he's innocent and turns up town when flipped. Turn the gambit on trent and it would be just the same.

Can I make a compelling argument for that pretty minor swing in perceived guilt on RW? No. It's largely hunch around a few measly comments that struck me funny. It's also one reason I'm not inclined to try laying out a case for group dissection nor swaying anyone else to jump on the wagon. It's just a hunch. And one that's more likely wrong than not.

Not much I can do about that at this point.

You know, maybe I should do a little more work trying to build my own wagon...seems to be the way to go these days.

@Krypsen (As I am also about to go to bed)
I thought it useful advice or at least information. Along the same lines as people getting upset when people call themselves town (Flub always seems to get on lists that way). Or people being scummy for defending themselves because "town shouldn't care about being lynched", which is again a really silly concept as how can someone in good conscience let themselves get lynched knowing it would be a town miss...

There are quite a few bad habits of those relying on "gut feelings". Simple test, put yourself in that position and think about what your response options would be both as scum and as town. If the answer is the same for either faction, then there is nothing to see here. Equally pertinent, if you can't understand how either scum or town would make those posts (Hi Bookwyrm!), do you really have anything?

I agree. Smells like town violence.


BTW...............I'm still town.

First of all, by removing someone that plays scummy. How many times in the last few games has the phrase "but his playstyle doesn't help town" has been uttered?
Secondly, because even though by itself it won't help, additional wagons may be clearer.

The bolded part of my quote is not an advice to not vote on people playing scummy, it's an advice against playing scummy to trick scum or cause reactions.

Already answered. Let me quote myself again.
I am not sure if it's me being frustrated with yog from the previous game and reading everything he says in this one in a more negative light, or if his posts are negative by themselves. I do not want to vote based on emotion, but on data and potential information. And yes, I do consider making someone rely less on gut feeling and more on logic worth a lynch.


Playstyle wildly different from last game, explicitly states that he didn't make a slip with the "a townie post", says he did double check that he didn't write "another townie" instead, LAMIST defense. None of those is reason enough to assume Wyrm is scum, though they are reasons to keep an eye on him. My paranoia is saying that Wyrm is trying to get himself lynched, though no idea why.


Here's the reason for me picking up that much speed.
Vitek is basing the deadline on the number of voters, not the number of players left nor the activity level of the thread. What I gather from that quote is that 14 vote posts with nothing else would have a bigger deadline than 140 posts with 0 votes, and that is something that I really don't like.

No. And one of my biggest concerns has been allayed somewhat, so I'm not even sure if I'm going to continue voting for him. I will continue to do so until I've taken some time to reassess who is at the top of my list.

Now it's time for the exactly same votecount as it would appear 13 hours ago:

Bookwyrm – 3 – yogsloth, agentcarr, Jmich
JMich – 2 - dedoporno, trentonlf
RWarehall – 2 – Krypsyn, bler
agentcarr – 1 – flubbucket
Krypsyn – 1 – Leonard
Sage – 1 – Rwarehall
trentonlf – 1 - Bookwyrm

not voting – 3 - CSPVG, cristigale, Sage

Bookwyrm is closest to lynch with 3 votes at L-5.

I see I have chat message but chat is not opening for me today. So if it is from any of you, you need to be patient. Eventually I should be able to read it.

I look at the current voting landscape. I would postulate one, maybe two scum are currently voting. I also strongly believe there are scum not voting.

My hypothesis is based on empirical data. Having played as scum many times I know it is quite easy to allow town to lynch town on Day One.

Not voting for the lynched townie allows scum to gain town cred to some degree.

I will suspend my vote against agentcarr16 and join a wagon in progress. One I believe to be guilty. I will continue to scrutinize agentcarr16.

Unvote: agentcarr16

Vote: Sage103082

On a personal note (last time):

I've been offered a new job!!!

The only downside is it's in management.

I guess now I can get rid of this pesky soul which has been holding me back all these years.

Congratulations.

You've only had a soul holding you back all this time? Could have fooled me, honestly.

Also, congratulations.

+++++++++++++++++

Game-related nonsense:

Heavens above, do some of you get paid by the word or something? I mean, I know I've typed out several long posts, but I feel like I've sat through a hundred or so posts of considerable length that haven't really moved the game forward much.

Also, sorry Sage. I'm unconvinced.

Vote: Sage103082

I think there is the possibility for value in the wagon analysis, and even more value in the discussion leading to the wagon votes, because people are reacting to something more than that gut feeling you mention. And people are reacting to other people's reactions (ex. I acted, Yogsloth reacted to me, JMich reacted to him and me, others react to JMich). If you think this doesn't have value, then so be it. I'm not sure how a wagon full of "Well, he just felt wrong" is better.

I think Vitek's delay-of-game was based on waiting for people to confirm receipt of PMs to make sure people are aware the game is about to start. I don't think there was anything nefarious in it, and I'm not the only one to think this.

Do you think I'm still deliberately inserting confusion into the mix?

I know, right? I figured my goose was just about cooked. I'm not as certain now, though I'm still on the menu.

Could you please point to where I said or implied that scum and town would react differently to my posting?

-So people can't try playing in a different way?
-You note I didn't slip, but don't mention how I didn't exclude myself from being town.
-Yes, I double checked to make sure I didn't slip. Is that wrong?
-Where is the LAMIST defense? How did I try to defend myself in that manner?

-My words indicating that I was careful in crafting my posts are trustworthy, but my explanations about what I'm trying to accomplish aren't trustworthy? Do you only accept my admissions when they could be damning for me?

And thank you for linking those posts of mine, JMich. I had forgotten about a question that RW hadn't answered:
RW, I asked this: What am I not being truthful about?

I don't recall ever getting an answer from you. Please answer my question or link me to you answer (in case I missed it).

Well I guess my freakish good looks have relegated me to nothing more than a pretty face.


Also thank you both.