dedoporno: I'm sorry to say that I'm no longer as certain as I was until now when it comes your towniness.
There's no need to be sorry on my behalf. I'm more amused than perturbed.
1) Yes, lots of people have "explained." And by explained you mean "asserted." The arguments boil down to either "it's bad, trust us" or "that's no fun." The former of which I find unconvincing and the latter at least sympathetic. 'Tis a game, after all.
The third is more challenging and boils down to "if there's no lynch there's no data to analyze later," which I think is a fallacy in multiple ways, some of which I've already covered. But the gambler's fallacy and the Monty Hall problem (which Kryp also linked) is really the core problem with this assertion - people, in general, are terrible at estimating these things. Even a veteran who has played 20 games is making a guesstimate of "what works best" off a very tiny sample for making absolute statements about what works and doesn't as a statistical move. This isn't chess where there's an expansive data set to draw on to support such claims. At best it's an informed guess.
If you have a link to someone's doctoral thesis analyzing outcomes of Day 1 plays in bulk, by all means, I'm happy to take a look and be convinced otherwise. But as is there's no reason for me to think you aren't just all subject to some misperception of actual stats combined with a dose of availability heuristic. I could well be wrong too, but in terms of making a case for 'strategy' I don't buy anything that's been put forward as a logical argument - but sure, the emotional "fun" argument, ok, I'm not here to ruin anyone's fun.
I believe 'no lynch' is a viable strategy, y'all don't. /yawn. If you want to debate theorycraft with me, we should probably take it out of game since we've exhausted whatever it might tell us about this particular game I think.
2) Have I flaunted my newbishness as an expression of my innocence? I don't recall doing so, much less with intent. Though someone can probably find an exception if they dig deep enough. Dig away! Now, have I apologized for certain mistakes that have impacted play or the group? Yes. Several times. But that's not the same thing, and I'd apologize for being out of line if I were guilty or innocent. Whatever side I may be on my intent is not to upset the apple cart.
Though I realize this statement makes me a suspect if anyone turns up dead inside an apple cart.
3) My comment on Leonard was just a thought that had been idling for a while, and perhaps it was a mistake to put it on paper before having thought it through. However even as an introvert, sometimes you have to put an idea on the table and let it breathe to realize that it was a dumb idea.
As for Wyrm, I don't think he was scolding me. I didn't perceive it that way, though perhaps that was his intent, I don't think he'd say it was a scold either. He pointed out why he believed Leonard and I took that as an honest statement. If you want to read into it, by all means.
Practically speaking I'm unlikely to get out of the game alive one way or other. That's not just admitting I'm likely to make some fatal mis-step that will make me a target to one or more factions, but the practical reality that more than half of us probably won't. So even if my odds were average, I probably wouldn't make it out, and they're likely a bit worse than that.
Perhaps the best argument for not lynching me, unless you're wholly convinced, is that, if I were scum, I'd probably mess it up.