Personally, talking open knowledge scenarios that may involve the cult doesn't really bother me in terms of role talk. As the enemy has or will have more than one mind to hash it out, I go under the assumption they are more than capable of looking into scenarios.

What worries me is when it crosses the line into revealing one has or doesn't have a role or discusses specific players.

A questionable example you have used, Drealmer, is asking players how they would handle a Vig shot. If players state they will wait or state they would use it right away, it helps scum eliminate them when that event does not occur. Hence why I specifically ignored that question.

As to game composition, its obviously either CL or CL +1. If we play our cards right, using all our abilities in conjunction, we have a decent chance to pin down the CL in 3 days. But we need to lynch.

Let's look at it from the Deprogrammer's perspective...

There are 11 possible enemies. One gets lynched Day 1. Deprogrammer targets Night 1. We lynch Day 2, Deprogrammer N2. add in the Day 3 lynch. That's 5 unique players out of 11 eliminated with a decent possibility the Tracker has checked at least 1 if not 2 unique players not in that list. And the Vig could rule out another if he targets someone not investigated by the Deprogrammer. So, done right, we have about a 50/50 chance of catching the CL before his 3rd recruitment.

This is why No-Lynch is just a horrible idea...do you like the idea of just 4 out of 11, possibly 5 with a Tracker before the 3rd recruitment? I don't.

Now here's the tricky part...
As I think this through, just as No-Lynch is a terrible idea given the extreme power of the Cult's night ability because passing up even one chance to narrow down the field shifts the odds unfavorably, it's also a bad idea to waste both a Tracker investigation and a Day 2 lynch on people we believe are town. If I'm the Tracker, I will probably leave the threat of an investigation to be enough and check someone else. If I'm the Vig, I'm using my power in the first two nights.

But if we waste a Tracker check and a Day 2 lynch on someone we strongly suspect is town, now you only have 4 of 11 eliminated after Day 3 (only 3 eliminated if we are stupid enough to No-Lynch) and the Tracker has had only one chance to seek out a unique target to inform us about.

In short, if I were to guess for balancing purposes, CL + 1 is the most balanced setup assuming town plays their cards correctly.

Interesting.

Checking back over the whole Kill v Recruit debate.

RWarehall is the only who insists on it being a nightkill. Bookwyrm simply said it was more powerful than a nightkill. Just thought I'd point that out. May be useless, but it makes me feel better about myself. :-P



Suspect list (ordered most to least) is RWarehall, drealmer7, and docbear1975.

I won't vote until I see what the current vote standings are, however. I don't want to accidentally hammer anyone.

Eh, either way, I wasn't surprised. And no, no information on day-chat, I asked, somewhere back there <--- in the thread, and there was no information given. Cult may or may not have access to day-chat and/or night-chat, we don't know.

Did you re-look at the wording again of "there will be a cult"...because it could be read as either "there will be a cult in this game" or "there will be a cult once the cult leader gets to recruiting", I think it is intentionally ambiguous. Do you still think it is just the CL? (I think it is just the CL.) You agree that it is likely we will hit town today, and you're just okay with that? I know it is true most games, but we have weak wagon analysis in this game, almost no wagon worth anything on D1 anyway if there is only a CL, and are pretty much (broken record...) just narrowing the pool for the CL. It's different than a normal game.

unvote no lynch

vote RW

vote count / votecount / vote-count now this by my notes:

drealmer - 3 - Bookwyrm, Ixamyakxim, fantasysci5
Dessimu - 1 - RWarehall,
RW - 3 - Dessimu, docbear1975, drealmer7


12 alive means 7 to lynch

drealmer and RW are closest at L-4

so you aren't going to hammer anyone or even L-1 anyone at this point

You what's ironic? You people still called it a Nightkill in the Wraith game when every player was brought back to life and had powers to serve town...and stayed in the game for awhile...

You can argue the semantics however you wish, but functionally a Townie dies each night the CL is alive (as the target is no longer Town). JMich's examples of delayed deaths does not change one's faction making them useless to town...

And the whole reason it needed to be brought up is that two people were trying to use the Cult's lack of a nightkill as a justification for "no-lynch"; that this game was somehow unique enough that "no-lynch" is a viable option despite the fact that what the Cult does have is far more powerful than a normal nightkill.

CL + 1 is balanced. Town should have a greater than 50% chance to eliminate the faction kill by the end of Day 3 before 3 players have been recruited. Of course, town need to utilize all their abilities to get there:
1) Lynch
2) Deprogrammer
3) Tracker
4) Vig shot

Looking at this scenario should be telling you something...no-lynch is not appropriate for this game...at this time. Hint: You want to break the game later? If you know the Cult Leader is dead (he was tracked; pretty sure he was lynched, etc), THEN you can no-lynch and give the Deprogrammer free reign to target each player one by one until their heads explode.

In the last day or so I've felt / agreed with what RWarehall has said. It's made sense and been along the lines with what I was thinking. That the two people I've worried about the most (the no lynch crew) immediately switched their vote over to him has only made me more certain.

LOL yup 100% agree. It's why I gave Fantasy a pass for her initial No Lynch Vote. She's quickly come around to the notion that it's a bad move in this game. Learning townie or savvy cult player is yet to be determined obviously - but at the moment certainly lower for me on the radar than Dessimu or Drealmer.

In fact, if you think you are at LyLo, the Deprogrammer is alive and you even might have killed the Cult Leader. You can try to No-Lynch for the win as it might be your best chance. But for the love of God, don't even consider no-lynch until the Cult Leader might be dead...

So many things wrong with the above analysis. So many many things.

1) Let's start with the deprogrammer's targets. He visits X on N1. Can you guarantee that X won't be recruited on N2? He has been cleared, and you do say that it's a bad idea to waste a lynch on cleared people. Same case if the deprogrammer visits the CL. deprogrammer gets a failed note, CL remains alive, though he did lose his recruiting power.
2) With the tracker not knowing who the deprogrammer targets, nor who we plan to lynch on D2 and/or D3, why do you say there's a decent probability of the tracker having checked at least one if not two unique players not in that list? Yes, wyrm is most likely one the tracker will check, so there's one, but I don't think the odds of the tracker visiting a unique player is actually betting ones.

So yes, if your goal is identifying the CL, your logic may be valid. I'm just not sure if identifying the CL asap is actually the winning strategy, or if we'll end up clearing him as town as well.

Why the strawman by asking "Can you guarantee that X won't be recruited on N2?" Do you really feel its necessary to falsely discredit me?

Some here want Day 1 to end in a no-lynch...
You want the Tracker Night 1 to follow Bookwyrm who most people believe is town and then you want us to use our lynch on Bookwyrm's target. Because somehow using our power roles and claimed townies makes sense as we bleed a player and the cult grows a player every night...

If Bookwyrm is telling the truth, when exactly are we going to start trying to find the Cult Leader or even the Cult? If Bookwyrm doesn't pick correctly (1 in 11)...

At the beginning of Night 2, if you and the no-lynchers have their wish, we'll have cleared just 2 people, Bookwyrm which I think most people believe is town and the townie that Bookwyrm "cleared" and is now dead by our own hands.

Cult will be most likely be up 2 members after N2 and if we started CL + 1, there will be 4 cult to 7 town and 10 possibilities left for the Cult Leader. Does that sound like a winnable scenario to you? How many nights will it take to clear those 10 people? How many night do we have left at 7 to 4?

But I'd love to hear this wonderful plan you have to beat the cult by trying to confirm townies one by one.

Your plan only works if Bookwyrm is lying and is the Cult Leader and I'm not sure it makes much sense for him to do so...

Of course we have to stop the Cult Leader first. We could lynch with 100% accuracy and still lose to a cult. Cult creates a minion, we lynch that minion. End result = -1 townie, no loss in cultists. That is how powerful their "Not a Nightkill" ability is! You have to stop them asap.

First step to win a cult game, is stop the recruitment.
Second step is clean up the rest...

As to the Tracker, Night 1 with 1 person lynched and Bookwyrm, there are 10 players left. So 6 in 10 or 60% chance he chooses a target other than the future D2, D3 lynches or Bookwyrms N1 or N2. At night 2, with 8 players left after Bookwyrm's day 2 reveal and the D2 lynch and 2 unknown targets means he has a 75% chance of picking someone unique. Yes, he could be turned by then, but with roughly 60% and 75% chances of a unique target, in most scenarios, he'll have cleared at least another body.

***********************************************************
Official vote count

Dessimu: 1 - RWarehall
drealmer: 3 - Bookwyrm, Fantasiscy, Ixamyakxim
RWarehall: 3 - dessimu, drealmer, docbear

It takes 7 to lynch
drealmer and RWarehall tie at L-4
Not voting: JMich, flubbucket, agentcarr, babark, cristigale,
*************************************************************

Deadline is some time tomorrow.

*************************************************************

Got pulled away by other things, had a chance prior to that to re-read most players.

The back-and-forth about the term "kill" seems like a big distraction. Mostly bickering about semantics.

Early in the game (first 100 or so) posts, I was a bit suspicious of flubb. Seemed to be pushing away from confirming Bookwyrm's claim.

If Bookwyrm had not claimed, I might be pushing for his lynch. His early suspicion of Drealmer felt like an easy target. I have not seen anything unusual in Drealmer's play, the push on Drealmer seemed a bit convenient. I disagree with Drealmer about No-lynch, but that is nothing new.

The Go, Bookwyrm line struck me as LAMSIT. Not a big thing by itself.

While drealmer is basically saying the same thing, this push on RWarehall from Dessimu feels off. It seems more like finding a reason to throw suspicion on RWarehall.

I find this more defensive than expected.

If we No-lynch today, the CL needs to do nothing to 'stay hardly unnoticed'. How are we going to find the CL if we don't vote? Our PR's could get lucky, but I'm not banking on that.

My overall impression is Dessimu is trying too hard to make a defense.

Vote Dessimu

Vote is not unreasonable, just on the wrong target.

You forgot that it is possible to actually get rid of 2 cultists per day/night cycle, or 3 if we also use the vigilante. Your math reminds me of "You are buying for 2 and selling for 1, you are losing money", disregarding the fact that I am buying 1 for 2 and selling 20 for 1.

That is why I'm questioning you. You seem to ignore facts that can throw all your math out of the window, and cling to what I see as fear mongering.
And yes, I do see verifying wyrm as extremely important. Don't you?

Why is it so important?