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flubbucket: What is a "confirmed" town?? And what is to be done with the potential for that player to become cult the following Day??

A pool of confirmed players seems an unlikely and undependable possibility.
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Ixamyakxim: Confirmed long term yes. But again we're still early in the game, and for one day I don't mind making assumptions. I'm biased so here are my assumptions:

I don't feel bad, for just today, assuming Bookwyrm really is the deprogrammer. Thereby I'd like to know the townie he found last night. I also don't mind assuming cult wouldn't have wasted their conversion on Dessimu last night (though they'd be silly not to convert him in the next day or two - sorry Dess!).

So with myself there's a voting block I feel really strongly about for today. Other assumptions - right now we're at a really unique point in mafia games - we can get a really good idea of who, for the moment, is town. We can really "pare down" the potential lynch candidates for today.

Come LATER days, that's going to get harder and harder which is why it's very important to do now. So, here's my "no vote" list for today: Me (LOL), Dessimu, Bookwyrm, Bookwyrm's townie.

Ironically, as time goes on (ESPECIALLY without a better confirm on Wyrm) that list will become my MOST suspected list because cult CAN'T let known townies persist.

Vote flubb for consistently trying to obscure the value of learning a short term townie block by trying to equate it to what's going to happen in later days.

Still worry about drealmer and I will RADICALLY alter my view on Bookwyrm if I think he's using this deprogrammer "role" more as protection / manipulation than to help town.
Your vote is understandable. However my point consistently has been to NOT ASSUME and your post is rife with assumption.

The big danger in cult games is assumption. Ixamyakxim was town last round as well as Dessimu and Bookwyrm627. So this round two of those three must??? be town.

Natural Action Resolution puts Killing before Recruiting.

It's possible Dessimu could have been Vigilante last Night and woke up cult.

Therefore, assuming any player is anything (outside of deprogrammer) is unsafe. Why do you think Krypsyn HATES cult games so much??

/refresh......seven minutes after agentcarr16, so I'm safe.
@ flubbucket

Unless cultists get absolutely no message saying they have been recruited, then no, I am still town.

By the way, about Babark and bananas... I suggest to stay away from that one tree where you found Babark. That tree is...liquidly unsafe.
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docbear1975: Trust me, when I do catch them, I will share. Right now, I got nothing except my gut instincts. Which is not enough to go go on.
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Bookwyrm627: You may have to, eventually. Sometimes this game comes down to deciding which gut instincts to trust.

-----

I notice that J "Man With a Plan" Mich hasn't had much to say thus far on D2. He's mentioned schedule issues, and most recently submitted a plea about how he doesn't get reads right anyway. Need to review what he's added beyond said plan and semantics arguments.

Agent promised Walls of Text on D1 while catching up. Either he is bad at WoT, or he doesn't quite know the meaning. Or he had less to say than anticipated.

Drealmer's stance change-up has already been pointed out. I noticed that near the end of D1, he also came around pretty easily to CL+1 as a possible game start. Bears monitoring.

I still can't read Flub worth a boop. He seems to be contributing a little bit, at least at some level. He has indicated rereads he plans to perform, but hasn't revealed any conclusions or thoughts acquired by those rereads. Reminds me of JMich in this regard.

Cristigale has been very quiet. Too quiet?

I keep getting Docbear and Fantasy mixed up in my head. Really need to go back and sort out which one held what opinions.

Ix. What to do about Ix...

Dessimu. Yep, he's the vig alright.
I did reread agentcarr16 and found little remarkable.....or more accurately, evil

drealmer7 reread is a long process.....far too much thinking out loud to easily cull through.

Highlights?? from notes: #69 assumption of tracker clearing players, #115 & 148 LAMIST, #282 keep evaluations to yourself (whaaat??), #424 will bookwyrm live through the night (?!?!?)
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agentcarr16: @Bookwyrm - I think I see it, but I don't agree.
Do you have a mitigation for the problem?
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cristigale: Is the second emphasized portion an exception to the first emphasized portion?
Yes certainly. All the deprogrammer knows is that the next morning, someone dies, or doesn't. Unless they both target the same person.

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flubbucket: The big danger in cult games is assumption. Ixamyakxim was town last round as well as Dessimu and Bookwyrm627. So this round two of those three must??? be town.
Assumption IS dangerous - but not nearly as much right now. Later it gets much more difficult - now the cult is small which is why I wanted to know Bookwyrm's target last night. I'm willing to ASSUME that person is town and not the cult leader. All my assumptions are tied to time and this day.

As time / days go on, I'm going to assume I know less and less becauses more and more of you will be cult. I'll even rework my assumptions on whether I think Bookwyrm is being helpful and the deprogrammer, or a manipulative cultist.

Again let me reiterate - right now we have the best opportunity to ASSUME a townie voting block. Let's use it because that block is going to get smaller, smaller smaller and less certain as days go on.
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agentcarr16: @Bookwyrm - I think I see it, but I don't agree.
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Bookwyrm627: Do you have a mitigation for the problem?
I feel the benefits of a momentarily confirmed Town outweigh the WIFOM introduced by notifying the CL of your targets.

But that's just my opinion, so if you don't want to share, I'll deal with it. :-P
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agentcarr16: I feel the benefits of a momentarily confirmed Town outweigh the WIFOM introduced by notifying the CL of your targets.
I'll run through my targets D3 or D4.

In the meantime, I don't care to leave a trail of "I won't be visiting this person again for awhile" behind me.
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agentcarr16: I feel the benefits of a momentarily confirmed Town outweigh the WIFOM introduced by notifying the CL of your targets.
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Bookwyrm627: I'll run through my targets D3 or D4.

In the meantime, I don't care to leave a trail of "I won't be visiting this person again for awhile" behind me.
Fair enough.
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Ixamyakxim: Still worry about drealmer and I will RADICALLY alter my view on Bookwyrm if I think he's using this deprogrammer "role" more as protection / manipulation than to help town.
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Ixamyakxim: Thereby I'd like to know the townie [Bookwyrm] found last night.
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Bookwyrm627: If you can guarantee I visited a townie last night, I'll be happy to tell you who it was.
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Bookwyrm627: I'll run through my targets D3 or D4.

In the meantime, I don't care to leave a trail of "I won't be visiting this person again for awhile" behind me.
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agentcarr16: Fair enough.
No it's not fair enough. He's crossed the threshold for me. You mean you'll tell us on D3 or D4 after a critical mass of cult has been reached, and all your reads will be near meaningless because they could very well have been converted? You mean you won't say who you visited because they're totally not almost certainly town, they could be the cult leader? Wouldn't a smart cult leader just kill you right around that time too and just rely on the lynch to win out?

Unvote flubb

Vote Bookwyrm

If this means I become an easy lynch target for today, so be it. I still also say Drealmer is up there too on the suspect list.
Unvote

I'm an idiot. I've been overthinking so many things RE: Bookwyrm I missed the most obvious.
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Ixamyakxim: Vote Bookwyrm
*face-slap*
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Ixamyakxim: I'm an idiot. I've been overthinking so many things RE: Bookwyrm I missed the most obvious.
Oh good. Now you're thinking what I WANT you to think! >=D
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Ixamyakxim: Unvote

I'm an idiot. I've been overthinking so many things RE: Bookwyrm I missed the most obvious.
Well, I'm still missing it.
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docbear1975: Well, I'm still missing it.
The short version is that you should vote JMich.
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Ixamyakxim: Unvote

I'm an idiot. I've been overthinking so many things RE: Bookwyrm I missed the most obvious.
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docbear1975: Well, I'm still missing it.
Yes, can you explain?