You missed the other - he may be Mafia, and is telling us a tale. Not right up top of my list as likely, but I've learned in this game Never take anything at face value, theres always a reason for someone doing what they are doing,

I'd like to hear Reds reasoning for coming out with this info, to be honest. You don't have to reveal any more information if it could be dangerous, but I would like to hear why you thought it was necessary?

But why would they target me?

It was as Orryyrro said a one shot one, hence why I am revealing it. Also I deemed that before speculations got derailed by other considerations it was of best interest to know for town.

Basically I deemed that Vitek was the one with the most scummy act and took a gamble, turned out to be true.

Could you explain what was scummy about Vitek? Just so that I, a newbie, can get a handle on what sort of things I might want to look out for in the future.

Not that I'm trusting you completely, but it's always nice to have information about these sort of things :3

I don't know, but you're the only one who is known to have been protected, and blocked for that matter.

I'll try, though it was also somewhat feeling based. I am grateful you posted something as I wanted to add more to my last post after I noticed what others have written while I was typing :)

But yea, basically what I did was that I compared the two lynches we had and the voting pattern of its participants. Then I concluded upon if there was a certain pattern that stuck out or something that seemed to be unmotivated. (I was very close at picking Twilightbard as well, but decided against it as I ended up deciding that he play was influenced by lack of time as well). Then I also considered Cruward_Darkeyes, but killing him for just lurking and short sentences would have been less informative. So I went with Vitek calculating that it would remove a suspect I felt was scum, it would remove that odd pattern I noticed and it would tell me something about Cruward aswell, due to his voting pattern. I can't really put a specific finger on it, but thats how mafia games tend to be.

And yea with this one I had hoped to avoid revealing who performed the action, but since it was oneshot and it could be taken the wrong way if I kept trying to hint at something, I felt it was best to get it out in the open - thus my choice to reveal it.

I see. That's kinda how I'm going about things...on feeling and intuition. So far it's served me not too badly.

OK - had a read back through the whole thread...this is Rod talking to Baz way back on page 12...

So, going with the rule that Town doesn't lie (although you never know with Rod!!), and the fact that Rod is confirmed Town, it would appear that Baz is indeed in the clear. So everyone can ignore the blather I've come out with so far today - I KNEW reading back through would be a good idea!

Which , moving on from that, would put Jefe in the clear as well..i still wonder whether he will try to kill himself again tonight though, or whether the protection has done its job..i suppose we'll see .

Red_Baron claims to have one-shot vigged Vitek.

Now MafiaWiki throws up many many possibilities for the Traitor role. One of which is that Mafia are aware of a Traitor role, and have to hunt it out.

As well as this we have the fact that IF it was a Vig kill, there was NO Mafia NK. We have 1 known protection - Baz protected Jefe. So Red_Baron is asking us to believe that the Mafia hit a 11-1 shot and went after the protected person, while he handily Vigged Vitek.

Now, the only thing I cant work out is why Red_Baron would volunteer this info, with absolutely NO pressure on him at all. Also very handily for him, he claims a one-shot, which makes it ok as he has used it, therefore is not revealing a power role any more....

Its a lot to believe right there, just on the say of one person. The acceptance of Baz as Town, coupled with the events of today so far, really really make me wonder.

Mind you, you would have to be one brave Mafia to actually Claim the kill of the Night before! Or one very clever one.

FoS Red_Baron for now - I've been playing this enough times to just KNOW someone will be along soon to shoot all this down in flames!

Pre-post-edit - i suppose the odds could be 10-1 - if Red is telling the truth and Vigged Vitek, and Mafia went after Vitek as well! Still a stretch for me though...

Well, good, and I'm glad he didn't suicide, but that still doesn't solve the problem of his alignment...

Actually, that's not true... Rod's information told us that what appear to be power roles are undermined by invisible conditions - paranoia being the main one. This was presumably supposed to be balanced by Rod's backup role, but he kind of ruined that rather spectacularly...! :s

Heya, sorry ofr lurking abit, uni is taking up loads of my time (Semester project hand in on wednesday)
This seems to me like you know something about jefe?

I just had to point this out - this is horrible statistics. Simply because it makes no sense, at all. The chance of mafia targeting jefe who was (if we trust in baz) protected, or Vitek who was targeted for death (if we trust in Red_Baron) would be far greater than 11-1 or 10-1 - your statistics imply there are no mafia. At all. we are now 11 people, making us 12 during the passed night. Let's assume one mafia with three members, with the traitor thrown in for balance (Making it about 3 and a half mafia - just bear with me here). Let us further assume the mafia did not know of Vitek's role, this brings us down to 9 potential hits. Considering that Rod outspoke rather brashly that there are two doctors (Let us assume as such, though he might have infered to himself as potential doctor) brings us to three potential nightkills that would not result in a death (assuming no strongman), it would make 3 in 9 chance, or 1 in 3 chance of striking a person which would lead to only the vigilante kill. This theory takes a lot of assumptions, but stating purely "1 in 10 chance" is assuming so much more, and doesn't take account for the assumptions.

I'm sorry Rob, but I just had to point it out :p


Oh, yeah, and on the whole discussion on Traitor with regards to balance - the presence of a traitor doesn't show us anything with regards to balance, as it can be used to make mafia less powerful or make the more powerful (If it reduces the number of mafia by 1, assume a powerful mafia, if it does not reduce the number of mafia, assume a powerful town). What I'm saying here is just the fact that there was a traitor speaks nothing of the mafia power level (other than it needing balance) or can be used as any indication of multiple mafia factions.

I'm gonna disagree on Baz being claimed, and here's why

I don't know what reasoning Rod had in claiming that Baz was a Townie, but he did contradict himself here. It's either that or I'm guessing that Rod was going with the fact that doctor made him automatically town.

I think the final straw for me in believing that Baz is town, is a fairly simple one. He's a CLAIMED DOCTOR since Day 1 and still moving around. Yeah, I know this sounds bad, and I'm willing to give this one some doubt, but I find it odd that the Mafia went for the protected target and not the protector, knowing full well who he is.

I guess, I just think we're missing something.

(In other news, cooking almost done ^_^\/)

I feel very embarrassed and am going to go sit in the corner for a bit....you are of course correct. I still think its slightly odd we have a claimed Vigilante kill, but no NK, but the odds of it happening are indeed a lot better than I was making out. I blame a long working day and tired thoughts - others would just say I'm a bit stupid..;o)

@Twilight - you have a point there, I missed that on the read through.....hmmmm Town dont lie (or aren't supposed to) , yet Rod appears to have a clear contradiction there.

After my last really really poor statistical effort, I'm going to take a step back and let some others come up with stuff - theres plenty of quiet people about, we must be near a prod for some of em!

Why the heck are we still analyzing Rod's posts? Was one of his powers influencing the discussion from beyond the grave :3? I mean, we all know he blatantly lied at least once, and he was confirmed town. So what is the point of examining his apparent contradictions? He had his own agenda.

Because the most powerful tool we have is to go back and reread a persons posts once their alignment is confirmed by lynch / NK. Its the whole reason I wanted to lynch Rod in the first place - his alignment being known throws a whole new light on all the information he gave out!

Ahh. I see.