hedwards: The point I'm making, is that evidence supports or fails support the theory you have, it doesn't indicate one thing or another. Which is one of the reasons why trials are so complicated as evidence doesn't actually point at a specific reality, it just supports or fails to support possible chains of events.
The issue is that evidence supports many different events that are sometimes contradictory. It's not that some events have evidence and others don't, but that some events are more strongly supported by the evidence than others. If someone is judged to be guilty and it is later overruled, that doesn't mean that the original judgement had no support for it.
I'm positive it's not true, because it's not true. It doesn't show up in the Torah and I highly doubt that the Talmud includes any support for them having their Messiah. I mean hell, even the location of the future Israel isn't supposed to be revealed until that happens and there's no guarantee that it will be where the old one was.
Christianity was originally seen as a sect of Judaism, so which claim are you doubting? That Jesus was a Jew? His disciples were Jews? Initial believers were Jews?
If I grant for the moment that Jesus wasn't their Messiah, then when there Messiah does come, do the Jews that believe he came cease to be Jews? Have the Jews that don't believe their actual Messiah is the Messiah ceased to be Jews?