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Hummm... the goal in 1 day, about 200k more the next.
I'll pull a projection from my butt and say it'll go down to 50k/day almost right away and even lower.
Hitting 2 million is probable, 2,5 possible and 3 unlikely.

I'm sure someone can make an accurate prediction a month from now,
but how about making a guess right now?
Post edited September 16, 2012 by Jarmo
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Jarmo: Hummm... the goal in 1 day, about 200k more the next.
I'll pull a projection from my butt and say it'll go down to 50k/day almost right away and even lower.
Hitting 2 million is probable, 2,5 possible and 3 unlikely.

I'm sure someone can make an accurate prediction a month from now,
but how about making a guess right now?
I'd say they hit between 2 and 2.2 million, you can count on one hand the KS projects who've gone above that.
Obsidion are a pretty big name on KS though. Many of the others have been new names or aiming much much lower or more niche in their market.

They could go higher, but, its iffy if they can. Two downsides they have got over others is:

1) Pledge rewards - they don't really have a scalable way to increase your rewards that you get for pledging more. Many of the KS I've seen gain great momentum have been not just from getting more people, but also unlocking new rewards that encouraged people to pledge more. These were mostly manufacturing products so each time they broke a barrier they could "reward" people with more products.
This game has rewards, but they don't translate to adding anything to the pledge levels, just to content in the far off to be released game. So they've a reduced chance to boost sales there.

2) Reward tiers - they've got big, very big, gaps between their pledge reward points. This can be a bit of a backfire as with bigger gaps you've got longer to bridge the gap between them (potentially of course, it depends how the momentum keeps up).



so they could lose some steam and indeed this could be one of the few KS which sees a reverse pattern of growth - that of having its biggest gaining days in its most early period with a dwindling growth as the month goes on before a push near the end. That is as opposed to many others which tend to operate the other way around - having a much reduced spike early on (up to the funding point).
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overread: Obsidion are a pretty big name on KS though. Many of the others have been new names or aiming much much lower or more niche in their market.

They could go higher, but, its iffy if they can. Two downsides they have got over others is:

1) Pledge rewards - they don't really have a scalable way to increase your rewards that you get for pledging more. Many of the KS I've seen gain great momentum have been not just from getting more people, but also unlocking new rewards that encouraged people to pledge more. These were mostly manufacturing products so each time they broke a barrier they could "reward" people with more products.
This game has rewards, but they don't translate to adding anything to the pledge levels, just to content in the far off to be released game. So they've a reduced chance to boost sales there.

2) Reward tiers - they've got big, very big, gaps between their pledge reward points. This can be a bit of a backfire as with bigger gaps you've got longer to bridge the gap between them (potentially of course, it depends how the momentum keeps up).



so they could lose some steam and indeed this could be one of the few KS which sees a reverse pattern of growth - that of having its biggest gaining days in its most early period with a dwindling growth as the month goes on before a push near the end. That is as opposed to many others which tend to operate the other way around - having a much reduced spike early on (up to the funding point).
As you've astutely noted, most of the super successful KS projects actually had existing tiers improving as more folks pledged, this motivated early pledgers to keep spreading the word. Obsidian has not done this in their KS and it may or may not cause them some problems. Still, they're funded, so it's hard to call it a backfired project.
Yeah. I don't think they are marketing it well, compared to other KS. From no communication at all until after the target was reached - and when it happened coming across as rather unexcited - to what feels like rather incidental stretch goals.

Doesn't mean it can't turn again, but I think there needs to be a lot more clear cut and passionate communication about what exactly they envision from here on for that to happen.
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Mnemon: Yeah. I don't think they are marketing it well, compared to other KS. From no communication at all until after the target was reached - and when it happened coming across as rather unexcited - to what feels like rather incidental stretch goals.

Doesn't mean it can't turn again, but I think there needs to be a lot more clear cut and passionate communication about what exactly they envision from here on for that to happen.
I noticed that also. The whole project seems quite vague to me. But now they have funding they can make their game. Hopefully it will turn out well for the people who paid good money to help it get made.
Well on the one hand what they have really is just a game concept. They've been pretty honest about the fact that, aside from the team itself, they've really got not much if anything set or fixed with the project itself barring the basic outline that its "an RPG".

They could be playing it a close game and keeping many facts held back, waiting until mid or even after the midpoint of the time frame before releasing more info - and indeed as strapped for info as they are this could be a good move for them (now that they have met their target) as building hype near the end is better than building it up and then letting it fizzle out (since its in the end dates that you can gain a lot of the people sitting on the fence as the timer runs out).

I hope that before they end they can at least get some very basic world info out barring the map that they have shown. Maybe bring a bit of life to some of the names written on the map or at least the key player factions present in the game - although its totally possible that many of these might not be fixed facts at this date - so if that being the case it is better that they remain quiet than to make false claims or claims which are highly likely to change before the end of the project.
Avellone mentioned a possible Kickstarter game months ago. He even solicited the opinion of people on the Obsidian forum. So it is a little odd that the KS is vague.
I do not like the lack of details, but I would accept that with Project Eternity, considering that there is an actual company and well-reputed people behind it. That is a key and crucial difference between Eternity and other kickstarter projects that skimp on the details.
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SLP2000: There's no question that for most gamers DRM thing is not important (or not that important).
It's just that they don't care unless it impacts them. Diablo 3 sells 8 million copies because no one cares about the DRM. DRM proceeds to not work well for a few days, people go apeshit. DRM then balances out and becomes more or less fine, people stop complaining.

SimonG's Sony example is perfect. Another is Starforce disc checks, or limited activation SecuROM which could actually lock you out of a game. People care when it impacts them, they don't care otherwise. The only way people would turn against Steam is when it fucks them over, which for the majority might very well be never.

I wish it were otherwise. I wish more people cared about game preservation and consumer rights, but I can't pretend they do.
35,343
backers
$1,390,128
pledged of $1,100,000 goal
29
days to go
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nijuu: 35,343
backers
$1,390,128
pledged of $1,100,000 goal
29
days to go
I'm still amazed at their initial success. Some of their stretch goals look very promising. I still haven't pledged yet. I'm waiting for some sample screenshots and their commitment to have a DRM free version, preferably, here on GOG.
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oldschool: I'm still amazed at their initial success. Some of their stretch goals look very promising. I still haven't pledged yet. I'm waiting for some sample screenshots and their commitment to have a DRM free version, preferably, here on GOG.
DRM info might happen, but there won't be screenshots, because... you know.. there's no game right now.
Might get a few concept art pictures though, if they've already pitched the game to some publisher.

I left a note I'll up my pledge from 20 to 100 if the boxed version is drm free, but no high hopes.
Post edited September 17, 2012 by Jarmo
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StingingVelvet: I wish it were otherwise. I wish more people cared about game preservation and consumer rights, but I can't pretend they do.
http://leibrockk.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/iverson21.jpg
+
http://silellak.com/lets_play/MAXIMUM_BROFIST.JPG
Damn, they sold on the early bird special. I guess what they say is true. You know the rest.