Posted July 09, 2015

It is at this point that I ask you to ask yourself three questions:
1) Is Wyrm a smart player or a dumb player?
Look at the results – most of the group is giving him the free pass.
Look into the future. Let’s say sometime in Day 2, Wyrm makes a Scummy slip. Well, no problem, right?
I think your case is a good one on the whole, though I don't agree that BW has bought himself immunity going forward. Certainly, as the newb I'm coming at this without entirely knowing what the established community culture is, so I'm likely looking at it from a somewhat different angle, right or wrong. Since group dynamics are, well, dynamic rather than static there's no guarantee a gambit that worked in one game will work in another game, or even that they would work elsewhere in the same game. So even a smart player can make a dumb gambit, especially early in the game when there's little to go on, and even the tendencies of one's peers can't be entirely known. He wouldn't have known I would react in a level 2 fashion, would he?
Though I think the bigger counter-argument that he has a permanent free pass is that he himself has made the argument that his early slip was intentional as a conversation starter. Ok, conversation started (post 600 or so). While I can't speak for the rest of the "level 2 crowd" (yay! I joined a clique!), I don't see how he sells that going forward. Both because the argument itself doesn't work, and that he is on a somewhat shorter leash with most of us already than, say, Christi is, even if most of us haven't moved so far as to pile on the wagon. Yet.
And FWIW, I was somewhat carefully trying to imply that my vote for RW doesn't mean BW is off the hook, not even necessarily for day 1, just that with limited info to go on RW strikes me as a hair more likely to be guilty of the two. BW was far enough from L-0 that my vote at this stage was relevant only in how it might have prompted other voters to fall, not as a vote in and of itself. I'm still ranking BW as 'more likely to be guilty than average' based on his play so far.
Your approach seems binary, with the proposition that he's either guilty or else he got a free pass! Gdmmt, people, how could you!"
Which isn't at all how I approach the game. He moved up my list, sure, just not far enough that I'm ready to cast the stone. Even if he survives day 1 he'll likely be going into Day 2 higher up my list. It's an interesting gambit, if true. If he can survive the town vote, he's made himself suspicious enough that he may have lowered his priority as an NK target, unless they think it's cover for him really being a high priority target so maybe they should kill him anyway, but maybe he's sacrificing himself and just want them to think that and OMG down the WIFOM slide we go... Not my problem, but I'm curious to see how it plays out.
His bigger problem, I think is that regardless of how town/mafia go, he's made himself look scummy enough to several people who clearly feel strongly about it, so he'd reeeeallly best hope none of them have a vigilante shot. So from that perspective, yeah, it was a risky play unless his goal all along really was to fall on his sword. Assuming he's a smart player, and that he'd at all thought it through, I have to tend to believe conversation was his plan, since he had to be aware he wasn't going to be able to dance that close to the edge and back off without some taint still on him.
I'm sure that's a mixed metaphor, but I'd best get back to actual work and don't have time to patch it.