Already given away, sorry :-/

I've gotten nothing at all from this "gift pile":

4 lumps of coal
50% off Valve
50% Bioshock 2
50% BIT.TRIP RUNNER
50% Post Apolcalyptic Mayhem

There's still some time left to get some coal to try and craft it into something, but I lost interest in this hunt. Summer sale's was a whole lot better.

I've gotten:

Portal 1 (which I already had)
-50 Patrican IV (which I have no interst in)
1 Coal piece

Twilight, no worries, it's not that I had any interest in that game either, but a game is a game, and therefor a lot better than useless coupons or coal :)

But, after these latest achievements were published, I counted I have yet to do 7 achievements in total. I'm currently at my mom's and her computer is so damn old it can't even run Fate of the World, Bit Trip Runner or Frozen Synapse. Just a couple more days, then I get back to my own computer and will be able to finish those pending achievements. Who knows, maybe I'll get 7 more coals!

Another coal, yaaaay :P

Another craft...another coupon this time -50% The Void....

This is getting anoying

I think it's better to store coal for a final draw rather than exchanging and risking getting another discount coupon.

My running total:

The Wonderful End of the World
Hydrophobia: Prophecy
Gratuitous Space Battles + Galactic Battles: Galactic Conquest
DOTA 2

-33% Valve
-25% Assassin's Creed: Revelations
-33% bitComposer
-25% Bethesda
-50% PAYDAY: The Heist
-50% Arcania: Gothic 4
-25% Focus Home Interactive
-50% Fallout 3

My friend just got DOTA2, do you know if you get any extra invites with that?

Not that I'm aware of. I haven't redeemed it.

I'd say the chances of getting a game with the coal are higher than getting something in the draw. Specially if you already have all you want from Valve, as most of the prizes will be their complete pack.

Mine so far:
33% off any one valve title
50% off Evil Genius
Crafted 7 coal and got a 50% off Trapped Dead -___-

I hope enough people think the same, to maximize my chances to win grand prize :P

I disagree with this. First of all, when you craft, there is a chance you get an actual game, not just a lousy coupon. And think about this: The chances of winning something in the main event are quite slim. There's 151 chances you get something you really want (+1000 if the thing you want is the Valve Complete Pack); but considering there will probably be tens if not hundreds of thousands of coal posted world-wide to the draw, the chance of you winning anything become from slim to marginal. I find that it's better to craft (not that I've done it yet, don't have enough coal) because then the pool of prizes is easier to reach in terms of probability. I myself am planning to donate my remaining coal once it's the end of the year; if some of my friends are at 5 or 6 coal, maybe they can make something useful out of them once they're able to craft (in other words, after I give them the missing coal). It's still a long shot, but much more probable than trying to win something in the actual main draw.

Then again, if you're a gambling man, by all means post your coal to the main draw. There's no denying the prizes are better there, but do realize winning anything there is like winning the lottery. I rather feel safe and at least try to bring some joy to my friends.

Edit: I tried to do some math and find out the percentage of winning anything, but I found out it's too difficult a task, especially after a bottle of wine and a random number of beers. But even though I can't count the numbers, here's an example. Say the number of participants is 100 000. You all get together in a large hall (I mean a HUGE hall). Say the average number of coals per person is 10. So, you all put your coals in a large hat (yes, it's a pretty big hat) after you've written your name on all of them. So, the number of coals is one million at that point. The drawing begins: Say you don't want the Valve pack, that means you have 151 chances of getting a coal with your name on it. That's 151/100000, which in percentages is 0,0151 (not 100% correct because the number slightly increases after each draw). If you've ever played Fallout, you know it's pretty damn hard to score a hit even if the percentage is anything between 1-20, let alone a fraction of a percent. Besides, the actual number of coals in the hat is probably even higher. So yeah, I rather help out my friends or craft myself, then I at least have a realistic shot at something decent prize-wise.

Edit2: I was a bit confused about the winning percentage since you posted only 10 coals so I guess it's debatable whether you have 10 or 151 winning chances of a million (i'm no mathematician). Nevertheless, the percentage is still an awfully small number and my point still stands.

Crafted 4 times, got 3x a useless coupon and the first time Portal 2.

And I agree with DProject, you better take the chance to win atleast something then lose all your coal in 3 - 4 million contest.