Alright, so the experiment clearly didn't work, but in a way, it did.

First, I post a convoluted theory that deliberately jumps at conclusions at a rate that is frankly quite alarming. No one really commented on that, except Robbeasy. I'm not entirely sure what was it I was trying to achieve with that, though.

Second, I try baiting. Putting Joe at L-2 (and trust me, Joe, I knew full well what I was doing), throwing him to the two wolves, as it were, urging them to try a speedlynch. It's two days later and the wolves never came.

Conclusions? Two options, really. Either the mafia is not stupid / inexperienced / daring enough to fall for that, or they simply couldn't, because one of them has already voted for Joe. And that would be, of course, Robbeasy.

I'd like to hear your thoughts on everyone in this game, Rob.

unvote
vote Robbeasy

PS: You knew this would happen when I joined the game, didn't you? :)

I knew it wouldn't take you long to get round to me at some point Baz...

Of course your reasoning for voting for me has massive flaws - you forgot the option that Joe could be Mafia, or that you are one yourself. Which is why he wasn't jumped on. Also interesting that you have first focussed on the two people nmillar has fingered as scum.

Joe - new boy (only one left!) which means cant go back to old games to glean posting patterns or such. My vote for him was speculative earlier - as I've said before now, we haven't had massive amounts of info, but his way of constantly being down, constantly playing the 'we are doomed' line just seems over-egged to me, as if its a deliberate play to deflect attention. And as your 'experiment' has shown, he wasn't jumped on.

So, to my way of thinking, one of you two are definitely Mafia. If its you Baz, then we have a prime second suspect in nmillar, as its a very clever ploy, one says 'ooh i think its definitely so and so' without much explanation, then the other jumps in a bit later to turn on the pressure.

If you're not, then Joe pretty definitely is, as your 'experiment' showed. Two town votes on him, if he wasn't Mafia , the remaining players would have jumped on and lynched him. Which also means one of Quad and nmillar is definitely Town, and one is definitely Mafia.

oooh who to believe....because of past behaviour, and the fact my vote is already there, I'm going to believe Baz (unusual i know). When Joe flips Mafia, we only have one to choose from two people, Quad or nmillar, for the final Mafia. Good odds.

My vote stays with JoeSapphire.

Sorry thats not a 'read' of everyone as such Baz - its more a read of the situation, but with so few players left, I've pretty much given you my views on everyone else....

Thanks for the reply. And don't worry, I'm not forgetting about Joe. I've just decided to try out what I have termed the hopping frog strategy in this game. (Oh noes! Now I've given it away!)

Actually, reading this game when I joined, I did not understand how could have Joe survived day one; but he changed a lot over the time, and now I'm not sure how to read him. And I don't really like the idea of joining a game at LYLO and fucking it up for everyone with one rash decision :)

Just realised in all my pontificating that I forgot about violatorX (sorry Vi!) .

Which changes much - it doesn't change the fact that either you or Joe is Mafia though - one thing you are correct in is that Joe would have been jumped on if the two Mafia were yet to vote...

lynching me would very almost guarantee a win for the mafia with the exception of the possibilty of a doctor. If the mafia burst out of the woodwork screaming "AHA WE'VE WON WE'VE WON!!" and then failed a nightkill then they're screwed.

ALSO for the duration in which two votes would have lynched me, NMillar and Quadralien didn't even post. Have we any way of knowing they were even aware of the situation. So you can't be certain that it's either Joe or Bazilisek.

What is a hopping frog strategy?

Fully aware of the situation. :)

Nothing grand, really. It's just that after seeing the sad failure of Mafia 6 (if you haven't read it, don't) and indeed, the slowness of this very game, I have been thinking a lot. I kept coming back to something nmillar always kept saying and I disagreed with, that people should be pressed to claim on early days, as well as Zchinque's principle of "not voting is anti-town". And I came to the conclusion that it really is voting that gives this game momentum, and it is voting that gives our words some weight. Otherwise, we're just sitting here wagging our fingers at each other, which we could keep doing for all eternity. So I have decided to change my behaviour from "vote sparingly" to "vote a lot". And if I feel the vote is no longer productive, I switch it to someone else. Hence the frog.

And yeah, I'm pretty sure nmillar follows the thread even if he doesn't post. Don't know about QA, though, you're right there.

Then may I congratulate you on your restraint!

Okay I've thought about it and I'm going to vote Quadralien. If the game's going to ever end I'm going to have to trust someone and for some reason I seem to trust violatorX. it might be a bad idea but well who can say? let's put an end to this sensation of a doomed shipwreck and LEAP! and why did I roll that dice if I was never going to act on it?

Unfortunately actually getting a job means I'm nowhere near as active as I used to be, but yes I'm still following the thread.

Back to the matter in hand, JoeSapphire's statement about trusting ViolatorX (the man of multiple mafias in the past) is rather interesting; is this a mafia ploy to distance themselves from each other should JoeSapphire get lynched and turn out to be mafia?

This game has been pretty frustrating overall; everyone has been playing their cards very close to their chest (or simply not playing at all), so there's hardly anything to go on. Unfortunately, as this is a newbie game, there haven't been any clues left hidden in people's posts. Well, none that I've spotted anyway.

If xyem HAD left clues what would we have got from them. I'll tell you; we would know that certain people were WITHOUT A DOUBT either town or mafia. Well we know that about everyone anyway.

Do you mean that ViolatorX has played a lot of mafia games in the past, or that he's been randomly assigned the role of mafia in many mafia games in the past?

This.

oh, well that doesn't bear any relevance to anything does it?

If xyem had left clues about who he had visited during the night periods and the results of those visits, then we would know which of those people he had visited were town and which were mafia, which would make choosing our next lynchee much easier.

Your determination to continually muddy the waters is extremely scummy behaviour and the fact that you haven't been quick-lynched suggests either the mafia have already voted, or the more likely scenario, you are mafia.

No we woudln't

Xyem was a jailkeeper who presumably prevented two nightkills. If he had targeted the mafia member attempting perform the kill, then the kill would have been prevented. If he targeted the townsmember who the mafia were attempting to kill, then he would also have prevented the kill.
My understanding is that he is given no extra information: the jailkeeper is not an investigative role.
So anyone he targeted on a night that a kill was prevented would either be the mafia trying to murder, or a townsmember being murdered, but he would not know which.

To conclude, we would not know which of the people he targeted were town and which were mafia and you have lied.

Not that it makes much difference what Xyem did and didn't do.