Posted November 22, 2011
So if Rod and Baz both really are Mafia, why would they keep thrusting themselves into the limelight after convincing most of us that they're town? Once again, I'm going back to my old argument that their actions just don't seem like the sort of thing someone would do if they were Mafia. If they had staged the day 1 argument then vanished out of sight, I might be suspicious. But they keep dragging that whole business back to our attention, which would be a really stupid move if you were Mafia, for exactly the reasons we're seeing here: it makes people like Rob start suspecting them.
The way I see it, we're basically dealing with probabilities here. Until someone is lynched or nightkilled, we can't know for certain whether they're town or mafia. At this point, Rob and Baz have the highest probability of being town. So I would say that the best course of action is to ignore them for the moment and concentrate on the people with a much lower probability--aka, everyone else. Otherwise, we're basically just going around in paranoid little circles and not getting anywhere.
I think that the votes for Itai need to me examined a little more closely. We should be looking for people who snuck them in there under the radar. I'm still sticking with my original thoughts...Mafia are going to be in the background, trying to stay unnoticed, but also the ones who are making sure to cause trouble and stir up wine.
The way I see it, we're basically dealing with probabilities here. Until someone is lynched or nightkilled, we can't know for certain whether they're town or mafia. At this point, Rob and Baz have the highest probability of being town. So I would say that the best course of action is to ignore them for the moment and concentrate on the people with a much lower probability--aka, everyone else. Otherwise, we're basically just going around in paranoid little circles and not getting anywhere.
I think that the votes for Itai need to me examined a little more closely. We should be looking for people who snuck them in there under the radar. I'm still sticking with my original thoughts...Mafia are going to be in the background, trying to stay unnoticed, but also the ones who are making sure to cause trouble and stir up wine.