I'm gonna try to make this quick, the thought of repeating myself doesn't make me jump to write.
The first piece of evidence is Muttly's willingness to go through with a Day 1 Lynch All Lurkers. Now, I can understand a certain degree of anger over people lurking, it's frustrating, you can't always get proper reads, and there's always someone who's trying to blend into the background. But, the problem here is timing in every way. In day 1, the only people who know what is going on, are the Mafia. At the very least, their role PMs tell them who their scumbuddies are so they know who not to get lynched.
As stated by Zchinque better then I could:
Zchinque: A lurker lynch generally brings no relevant information. There's no real case, no real wagon, no real nothing to analyze
When we mislynch, we not only have the information from their role, but can go back and analyze almost everything about the lynch. The case made, the defense, just how scummy did the player actually look, or was it just grabbing at the first thing, who voted on them, who wasn't on the lynch if they turned up to be scum, who hammered and how, etc. It doesn't sound like much but there's quite a bit once you start digging and looking for patterns.
One of Muttly's early read posts, as
previously stated, had 5 people listed that he felt comfortable lynching just for lurking. That was 148 posts into the game (this one SHOULD be 654, just as a reference), and where we had a major holiday coming up as a distraction.
I find this, odd, why would a townie want to endorse lynches so early when they would at best give little except for the basic (role name, player role). It's a very good lynch for the mafia because of that though, there's no wagon, no case, no defense, it's a very strict policy lynch and is very difficult to use for analyzing because the policy makes a great shield. (yeah, it's suspicious, but it's hard to turn into a case).
Then we have Muttly vs. Baron. There's nothing I can say here that's honestly new. It was a fairly weak case with a good amount of tunnel vision. I'm not taking more time to repeat the same shit that's already been said and noted.
There IS however, something (2 somethings actually) that I'm interested in. Half from day 2, the other half from here.
Let's get started here.
From Day 2
muttly13: So no one sees the Z kill as simply a mafia way to get Stuart lynched easily on D2? Mafia watches as we lynch a town lurker, then decides to kill the man who started the train on Stuart to make it seem he was taking his "revenge".
From Day 3
muttly13: I must say, I am shocked by the night kill. I know why they didnt kill me, they think I am an easy lynch today. But Nmillar was such a non-factor. Perhaps he fouled up their power roles N1 a bit or they just think hes the farthest from a mislynch.
Now, there's 2 things here of interest, first, the obvious.
Note that on both quotes, he pushes the nightkill as the Mafia trying to get someone easily lynched. The setup is that someone who votes for, or had voted for is obviously doing it because they're Mafia and want to promote a quick lynch.
Now, the fun part. I don't think that the 2 NKs are unrelated. Z brought Mafia to the forums, he's considered a strong player (as referenced in the RVS stage), and people earlier made mention that he was someone to be feared.
Nmillar...probably has played the most games out of all of the ones we've had up so far. He's aggressive when he's found his target, and again, generally considered a strong player. (Side Note: He's also never been Mafia, with the exception of the still going Game 9, where we don't know).
1 experienced player is a bolt from the blue, 2 is at the very least, a coincidence. I'll figure out what 3 is if it comes to it. The point being, both times the person who's killed is fairly ignored, useful only in the 'I'm not sure why [Person NK'd] was chosen over [Person suspected previous day], but it seems most likely it was to put Person 2 out as an easy lynch'.
My vote stays, those are my reasons. Take it as you will, I just don't want to repeat myself again.
