And some more time has gone and what happened in the last months and probably won't be over really soon is kind of a small civil war. As predicted separatists (for a lack of a better word) aren't strong enough to win Eastern Ukraine, so they'll probably lose.

Who already lost are all who have been killed or injured on both sides, those who have been tortured (report of Amnesty International about it) and those who displaced and lost property and those who lost business.

What is remarkable is the contrast with Crimea. The Ukrainian army there had all the right to defend their country but they didn't do anything and kept the peace. The separatists in Eastern Ukraine use violence to achieve their goals although their claims are quite weak. Isn't this a stark contrast.

And they needed weapons for it. Now there is only one country close that can deliver such weapons and indeed did (if you believe US reports about satellite imagery of tanks crossing the border from east to west). Whoever gave the weapons, whoever looked away when they were delivered surely also is responsible.

How will it continue? The russian economy has taken a hit but the Ukrainian economy especially in the East is probably dead by now. With the planned restriction on the export of Ukrainian products to Russia the negative impacts will grow. My impression is that there is a lot of hate (for lack of a better word) between Russia and Ukraine. Meanwhile the legal status of Crimea is still unresolved and even russian officials reported about voting fraud. Nobody knows how many people really would have voted would there have been time to prepare, no fraud, no pressure and meaningful options.

My guess is that Russians grip on Crimea is strong but Russias economy will suffer. Also I guess that the separatists without real help of Russia have no chances. The rest of Ukraine will probably try to put as much distance between Russia and them as possible but the following years will be very tough years.

What? Oohooo! You have no idea. To sum up Eastern Europe, as someone who comes from there, everyone hates everyone. :P We're all peaceful and quiet, but we still hate each other. It's also quite shitty when everyone around you have a 50+% Slavic language and yours is 50+% Latin. Add a ton of old grudges, lost territories, cultural and language barriers that have existed for thousands of years and you got the high pressure point of Europe. Weak economies don't help either. And retarded or corrupt politicians makes it worse.

I do not think that Russia will feel a bigger economic blow, after all they have signed a contract with the Chinese for the supply of gas. That contract is like showing middle finger to Western sanctions. On the one hand I do understand Russion reaction in all of this. They want to prevent weakening of their influence on the countries that they have strong ties to, something that the ''pillars of democracy'' would do if shuch need arises. But i do not justify the manner in which all this takes place. The ones who will suffer the most are ordinary Ukrainians who will trade on master for another that will not overly care about them and their problems. In the end it is all but a power play betwen U.S. and Russia.

Not sure about this. I heard they went down with the price quite a lot and need to build expensive infrastructure too. The Chinese seem to be lucky winner in this. On the other hand if it leads to more efficient resource consumption in the West I would actually appreciate it. The less of your money you need to spent on resources to more you can spent on other things and the less Russia can sell the more they might actually pay attention to what others want instead of sending inofficial troops like they did in Crimea.

Isn't this technically like showing the middle finger to Western countries? As in "it doesn't matter you'd pay more for gas, we're going to sell it to the Chinese anyways."

Not really, in effect it's a bulk discount to a new customer, much as if you sign up for cable TV or new internet you may get a deal existing customers don't. The best estimate is that the Chinese price will be discounted by between 5-10% relative to the average European price, not unreasonable for a large bulk deal. The estimate Chinese price is around 50% higher than the old discounted price Ukraine was paying, by way of illustration. I'd think both parties would be reasonably happy with the pricing, realistically.

The infrastructure costs are not a major factor, it's not like the infrastructure supplying Europe with gas was free, it too cost money but paid itself back many times over, that's just a cost of business. Much of the infrastructure needed in the east is already built, it does needs some connections and linking to China, but that linking will cost both parties money for infrastructure.

China is crazy hungry for energy right now w/ growth levels so high, and China is geographically located in an unfortunate area where they have to import much (most?) of their energy. This makes alot of sense for China but exposes them to external political influence from Russia. China need for energy is going to drive tensions in East Asia for quite a period of time - especially in disputed territories out in the water where there's currently quite a bit of tension already w/ Vietnam, Phillipines, and Japan.

I`m Ukranian living in Dnipropetrovsk, state that have borders with Donbass region where civil war is ragging on. Some of my friends have gone to war there. i`m a mid hand businessmen and have a lot of contacts in Donbass. I`m not claiming that my opinion is right, but this is what young businessmen think according to my contacts in IT and management.

1. Real bandits and criminal(like y see in films about Russian mafia) now have a lot of guns and armor and taking all they can. This includes killing businessmen and taking their businesses.

2. While criminals in the newly formed Donetsk and Lugansk Republics claim that they are new authorities and have support from people, they do nothing to keep people alive and fed. Occupied regions are starving and only food that is coming is from western Ukraine. Mind that Donbass region have it own fields and food stores, but they were robbed and sold cheap to near Russia towns.

3. No one from Donbass authorities can answer question "what needs to be done by Ukrainian government for Donbass resistance to cease fire". They don`t want to have any dialog with anyone. Even terrorist in Palestine and Tali-ban have their demands. These guys don`t have any.

Most of population in central and western Ukraine thinks that this aggression is coming from Russia, and they are right. Russia sends to Donbass tanks, artillery, heavy and light arms. All criminals there armed with Russian weapons. Thats a fact. You can watch youtube for proofs like this "h ttp:/ /www.youtube.com/watch?v=tDnOBLBfQUU" (delete spaces). Its in Russian. Very famous in Russian politic Nikolay Karlovich Svanidze "h ttp:/ /en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikolai_Svanidze" is having talk with People's Governor of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic Pavel Yurevich Gubarev "h ttp:/ /en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pavel_Gubarev". In this video they freely speak of Russians supplies of tanks, armored machines, heavy arms, AA and AntiTank rockets to criminals and mercenaries in Donbass region.

And last i want to say, that most of able fighting force of prorussian bandits are from Chechnya. Region that was conquered by Russia not more that a 5 years age. All mercenaries.

Ah, Chechnya. That region is just hilarious. Those guys are no better than how the mongols were, except the mongols were a true fighting force while chechnyan's are only blood thirsty maniacs. I never heard one positive thing about Chechnya. Not one.

One can see it this way, but as I said I actually don't want to have Russian gas if Russia behaves like that. Much better is to invent technologies to live without so much gas consumption.

Actually I wonder if this is really Russia against USA or rather something different. Russia is not really the biggest competitor of USA anymore - there are others like China. Russia is now one power amongst many (not sure if they see it like this themselves) and like a bully in a schoolyard they try to dominate their smaller neighbours. Well the obvious solution is that the neighbours have to stick together. And Russia should not be surprised if there is not much love for them around. Everyone is judged by how he treats others.

I see it more like a regional conflict and I wonder what the ultimate goal is. Regarding the west Russia heads fast towards isolation. So the middle finger may also backfire. It's probably more like a sign that already much is lost and won't come back.
I've read that the rocket launchers of the separatists have cost quite a number of lives on the Ukrainian army side with the shooting down of helicopters and this one big airplane. Now I guess you cannot buy rocket launchers just in a shop around the corner. And they cost money. Where exactly did they get the money from and the arms?

Compare this with how things were handled in Crimea by the Ukrainian army and you have a really strong contrast.

Oh this is also a hot spot. After having heard that Japanese and Chinese fighter airplanes passed with a distance of 30 metres one or two months ago I wondered if this is another powder keg that might explode in the next 20 years. What if someday a crazy lunatic sits in such an airplane and starts a spiral of death? Men, sometimes I'm extremely happy not to live in a problem region of the world, where problem region is probably at least about half of world area.

Thanks for posting. I appreciate news / information like this so I better understand. I see news reports but it's very difficult to get a good idea of what is actually happening.

I find it difficult to understand a situation like Ukraine where some of the people would favor Russia over their own country - especially considering the history including Stalin. I presume distrust of Ukrainian leaders must be prevalent also for the mixed loyalties - but again, it is difficult for me to understand. I do hope things turn out well. I had a Ukrainian friend in college and he was one of the smarter guys I've ever met - and he worked really hard. Based on him, I've got to think there's tons of talent in the country and am optimistic if things can stabilize and if the corruption can get eased so people can rebuild their lives.

He reckoned that most of the fighters might be from somewhere else, kind of travelling terrorists hired by ...?

As for the people who might or might not support violence to obtain their own state/annexation by Russia I mean with only 25 years since the creation of Ukraine maybe for some this is not long enough and for others the mother language might be very important.

The problem is not that someone might prefer something else (for example more autonomy might be a solution for such cases) but that people might actually kill each other because they prefer something else. And they do.

scary news

http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/214014.html

This thread should be renamed to "Ukraine-Russia military conflict in progress". Civil war my ass...