Magnitus: Sure, a greater proportion of the newer generations live online.
[…]
I would actually call the lure of social media an emerging natural selection criteria: You can use it in moderation to connect, but if you live online at the expense of real life, you are less likely to produce viable successful offsprings.
So, I would say that there is a strong reality bias against social media addiction that plays against it.
From your mouth to God’s ear.
scientiae: (though developers will need to be financing their development with online microtransactions more and more)
Magnitus: This is the part that I strongly disagree with. I stress the **need** verbiage. There will be a financial motivator that will probably lure a great many (perhaps most) developers in that direction.
But ultimately, if you make a quality game, it will be successful. Some people, like you said, might bemoan that they can't post their progress automatically on Facebook, but if the game is good, they'll play.
Perhaps I was injudicious with my auxiliary verb. ;)
As I said microtransactions provide a commercial advantage, and the ratio is a power law. You are correct that there is no compulsion to introduce them, but try telling the bean counters when your single-revenue asset is eight months behind schedule and the head programmers want a rise in pay.
Magnitus: […] There are far more people wanting an offline "leave me alone Facebook" gaming experience than there are people speaking Mongolian.
And the amount of money to be made from casual gaming is already an order of magnitude larger than the traditional model, and increasing continuously. As you say, and I agree, this won’t end the production of games that can be bought, rather than leased, but it will affect the market significantly. Follow the money.
Magnitus: To the extent that smaller companies are for sale. Some simply aren't (especially when they are a passion project). You can buy a lot, but you can't buy everything with money.
Yes, but that is a precarious business model, vulnerable to any unforeseen delays in the return on investment. Look at the developers and notice how many have been able to survive, even after making spectacularly popular, high quality games,
e.g., Black Isle. (Atari has been reborn so many times it is almost a talisman, rather than a company.) Look at the survivors, like EA. ’Nuff said.
Magnitus: […] I guarantee you that the world will not be happy with giving a handful of American companies a slice of their profits just because they cornered the market.
Apple has gotten away with is so far, because they are small, relative to the entire ecosystem (I would call using Apple products a choice, there are other options) and because they can't control some delivery vectors like web browsers, but if Microsoft also jumps into that wagon, there will be blowback, if not from the US, then the EU, Asia and other countries around the world. Not everyone is as tolerant of corporate monopolies as the US is.
The biggest selling point for Apple, after bright, shiny colours is their promotion of security. They have sought to differentiate themselves from Android-based devices by suggesting they are more secure and respectful of their users’ privacy. I am not convinced, but I can avoid using their technology, whereas a lot of younger people cannot.
As for Microsoft, their plan to coöpt every customer’s PC for their own network is indicative of what Silicon Valley expects the future to look like. Sure, it will take some convincing (especially for those of us old enough to remember the early days before the internet) but, as has been done many times before, the hurdle can be overcome with incentives.
I’ll give you a non-computer allegory. In the ’80s most private dwellings had no water meters. The state government spruiked their uptake by significantly discounting the water rates for those people who had them installed (people without a meter could not be charged
pro rata, so they were penalized with a large flat rate.) Later, when most people had installed them, the water rates were raised even more.
I know someone who locked out an ex- from their personal and business PCs because they had a similar off-site management process to that which M$ is attempting to foist on the world. (It was quite funny at the time. Not for the victim, obviously, but he was a dick.)
Coupled with the extremely annoying continual-update cycle, and the unending obsession with moving controls and changing processes that constitutes each major update in the Windoze product releases, and I have had enough. Even my (sizeable, admittedly) inertia will not suffice to prevent me from never buying their operating system again. (God how I am not looking forward to investing all the time necessary to create a secure, independent Linux installation.)
scientiae: And people have demonstrated their desire for convenience over all else
Magnitus: And yet, Apple still only corner a minority of the market (a significant minority, but a minority nonetheless).
It isn’t just Apple.
Amazon hosts the CIA, so I’m guessing their AWS subsidiary is pretty good at profiling people. They keep stats on everyone; how long someone spends reading each page of each book, whether they finished it (or even started it) and what they read next, etcetera, etcetera. Cambridge Analytica demonstrated that it is possible to determine who people voted for at an election (and even if they actually voted) based on nothing but their own posts, and who their friends are.
Google has a new smartphone that learns; how do you think it does that?
(Google has shadow profiles of everyone who it doesn’t have a direct profile for; they have foreign keys in apps that aren’t even used by everyone. What I mean is, even if you have never used YouTube, Google has a profile key for you there.)
Even for those of us (less than 5% in Australia) who eschew Google, they have enough data from everyone else to determine without much doubt who we are and what we are doing.
FAANG is not just an anagram, it’s a descriptor.
Magnitus: Mostly. I buy either physical or drm-free digital books. I buy drm-free digital games. I buy my music at 7Digital or Basecamp in flac format.
I mostly gave up on the movie industry.
We have a library of over 700 movies that we watch (and, occasionally, add to) and a large digital library of music (but that doesn’t get much airtime anymore, sadly) so we use a DVD player. (We have a couple of Blu-Ray movies, but the last player died, so we’re saving up to buy a new one, since some of those titles we only own on that format.)
scientiae: The biggest issues facing the web are all to do with fakery.
Magnitus: I think the biggest issue with the web right now is privacy and security.
You can’t have security and privacy without authentication, which is poleaxed by fakery.
Magnitus: I think most people don't care that much about piracy to be honest. Only big corps do.
I think what the internet really needs, for everyone, is more dependable software and an easier way to correctly operate networked software (it kills me that right now, there is no easy way for the layperson to deploy and use secure networked applications on the internet, that is still the realm of experts like me and in 2021, that should just not be the case). There are too many cracks right now for bad actors to exploit.
I wasn’t talking about piracy.
Plug’n’play security was Huwei’s killer app. Just like the Japanese did to black-and-white television with their colour models, Huwei used economies of scale to dominate the CCTV market. (Today, if you want a camera that isn’t Chinese you have to pay a lot more for it.)
Magnitus: Also, we need stronger privacy laws, especially against big corporations.
+1
Magnitus: The Dark Web, by definition, is obscure. I would say that the internet outside of Facebook is less controlled, but certainly not obscure.
I think the issue we have here is one of verbiage, more than anything else.
The medium of our exchange is a limiting factor, Yes. :) This forum does have some redeeming features, though, like a connection-less sequential mode, providing a natural rhythm for conversations.
Rather than think of the web and The Dark Web™ it is more useful to think of the web as having bright spots and darker spots. Some parts of town have street lighting and are patrolled by police, other parts are less safe to venture after dark,
etc.
Regular rectal examinations are unavoidable for those individuals on Facebook, since they (more specifically, their desires) are the products being sold to generate revenue, so the company has extensive stock control processes. (Cambridge Analytica was not an egregious actor; more, they were just doing what FB itself does, since that is their business model —— and has been from the beginning.)
I disconnect my PC when I am not using the internet, since I have no requirement for it. (I don’t stream entertainment.) Thus, technically, I am not on the internet (most of the time) and, especially after I reboot the router, which I do frequently, all the services require me to Captcha again, so they can link me back to my previous profile. (They day they don’t will be the day they don’t need to, and I fear that day is soon approaching.)