It seems that you're using an outdated browser. Some things may not work as they should (or don't work at all).
We suggest you upgrade newer and better browser like: Chrome, Firefox, Internet Explorer or Opera

×
avatar
scientiae: The future web will be unrecognizable to the current population. I would expect it to be all walled garden —— think AOL before Ted Turner. "Dark Web" will then have expanded to be whatever is outside that garden.
From my POV its much too early to determine that (I mean the "walled garden" part). "Web 3.0" efforts in the crypto space may go into other directions. And if successful many flaws of the current net (like the need to host stuff or dead links) may be effectively gone in the future version of the internet.

avatar
Zrevnur: There also have been legislative efforts to counter the microtransactions / loot box thing. So far probably without much effect from a global perspective though.
Wikipedia has a lot about legislation efforts: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loot_box#Regulation_and_legislation

avatar
scientiae: Yeah, it's a big claim and requires some strong evidence. Unfortunately, I have had little success finding the current affairs show. :(
Looking at the statement, I think it means 95% of online transactions are microtransactions. (This is one reason I was reluctant to publish the figure, since I can't remember the context. Also, I don't use Google, which doesn't help. If you use Google, you might have better luck. If you do, please let me know because I hate losing information more than pretty much anything else.:)

I do have this nice summary on Kotaku, too.

I saw it broadcast immediately after the one quoted in my previous posts, though it was made in 2014, or thereabouts. I thought it was another 4Corners production, but I have checked their library and it wasn't. This doesn't preclude it being packaged as such, rebranded from e.g., BBC Panorama or one of the US networks (PBS, maybe?) which they regularly indulge in.

Edit: I found the company! Halfbrick Studios.
http://halfbrick.com/

The show was a fly-on-the-wall documentary and case study of Australian developer Halfbrick, which had a big surprise hit with a mobile game, Fruit Ninja. At the end of the show, the passionate developers who were dead-set against microtransactions —— who just wanted to make good single-player games —— eventually quit the company, after tolerating the management decision to concentrate on the free-to-play microtransaction claw-back strategy.
I found this quote from 2014: "Last year, freemium apps represented 92 percent of all revenue on the iOS App Store and 98 percent on Google Play, according to Distimo."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microtransaction#Data
https://www.vox.com/2014/4/14/11625616/some-gamers-fear-a-dystopian-free-to-play-future
If true the 95% figure may be correct for mobile gaming. I also looked at your links and Halfbrick company makes mostly mobile games. So my best guess at this point is that it refers not to the global video game market but to a subset of it such as maybe mobile games.
avatar
scientiae: The future web will be unrecognizable to the current population. I would expect it to be all walled garden —— think AOL before Ted Turner. "Dark Web" will then have expanded to be whatever is outside that garden.
avatar
Magnitus: If all countries were authoritarian, yes. However, there are too many at least moderately liberal countries world-wide (ie, the entire Western world, plus many countries in Asia, Africa and South America) that agree on many of the general principles, but not the specifics.

And building all that world-wide networking infrastructures is a major international endeavor that requires cooperation from a lot of international players.

Maybe a very few countries would be happy to just hand the internet over on a silver plater to a few corporations (though I suspect that would test the limits of neo-corporatism in North America however well established that it is, they've already had a fair amount of resistance with privatizing and fully controlling the operations of internal networks across the US), but most countries wouldn't.

No, nation states are not going anywhere for the foreseeable future. However hungry some groups are for world control, the world is just too big to be owned by a single or very few players.
History is cycles.

The biggest issues facing the web are all to do with fakery. The best solution is to have authorized actors. Before Microsoft mail, which was eventually eclipsed by Google-Mail (remember they offered 50MB mailbox web-mail for free?) to participate one needed a (corporate or university) registered account. The routing index to the Internet was contained in six corporate servers.

Also don't forget that the Dark Web is not necessarily "over there", it's between the nodes as well. Think of Facebook. People on Facebook are minutely scrutinized, yet they can still interact with with the rest of the internet.

Think of the Integer number system. Between each real number is an infinite set of fractions, even irrational numbers, only some of which can even be represented in a computer, since they are limited to the number of digits they can represent by the number of bits deployed for each number in a word used in their registries. So there are holes between each integer, just like there are numbers that a computer cannot represent. Now consider each node of a registered file system. Between each of those nodes are grey areas that are not strictly part of the address space but are still within the confines of it. In the same way the grey(er) parts of the Dark Web are, to a lesser or greater degree, visible from the regular web.
avatar
Zrevnur: I found this quote from 2014: "Last year, freemium apps represented 92 percent of all revenue on the iOS App Store and 98 percent on Google Play, according to Distimo."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microtransaction#Data
https://www.vox.com/2014/4/14/11625616/some-gamers-fear-a-dystopian-free-to-play-future
If true the 95% figure may be correct for mobile gaming. I also looked at your links and Halfbrick company makes mostly mobile games. So my best guess at this point is that it refers not to the global video game market but to a subset of it such as maybe mobile games.
Sounds reasonable.

The doco I saw was about their transition from what was originally a developer of games for the Gameboy, Wii, Playstation 2, & Playstation Portable.

Fruit Ninja: The centrifugal force around which Halfbrick’s story orbits.
Fruit Ninja, released in April 2010. A minor miracle of design. One of the first mobile games to take full advantage of the iPhone. One of the first on the platform to seamlessly merge form and content. Fruit Ninja: A game built for touch screens. Almost instantly, it was a massive hit.
It sold 200,000 units in its first month. A tremendous number at the time, but modest in comparison to what would come. In three months: One million. By September 2010: Two million. March 2011: Twenty million. By May 2012 it had sold 300 million units and was on one third of all iPhones in the US.
2015: One billion.
Fruit Ninja is one of the most successful video games ever made.
[…]
Halfbrick was founded in 2001 by a small group of developers. A team that essentially worked out of CEO Shainiel Deo’s basement.
[…]
2009 was a difficult time to be an Australian developer. The “mid-budget” video game was in the process of dying a slow, painful death. The surging Australian dollar led to stratospheric development costs and overseas publishers were fleeing in droves. Studios closed left, right and centre. An endless struggle for traction. An endless struggle to keep the lights on. An endless struggle to keep people employed.
A difficult time to work for Halfbrick.
Just before Christmas, 2009. Shainiel Deo called a meeting. He told his staff that 2010 was make or break for Halfbrick. At current trajectory, he estimated, they had roughly nine months left.
[…]
The message hit home. It was especially pertinent for Luke Muscat, lead designer of a small team within Halfbrick. His last video game — Rocket Racing — was a commercial disaster.
Early in 2010 Luke gathered his small team and told them, “We need to make $300,000 this year otherwise… get your portfolios ready.”
The stakes were high.
[…]
Luckily for Luke, and Halfbrick, his team made Fruit Ninja, one of the most successful mobile games ever made.
Halfbrick’s dramatic rise: It was essentially the result of one single game, made on a whim by a small team of three in six short weeks. Luke Muscat openly admits to ignoring the advice of important, smart people within Halfbrick during its minuscule development period. Many within the studio didn’t care for or believe in Fruit Ninja.
Now the entire studio was dependent upon it.
[…]
Another Luke Muscat project, Jetpack Joyride was hardly the cultural phenomenon that Fruit Ninja was, but by almost every possible measure it was a stratospheric success.
At $1 a pop the game sold 350,000 units in its first week, but during Christmas 2011 Halfbrick did something unprecedented. Instead of charging $1, they made Jetpack Joyride free to download. It was initially supposed to be temporary — to boost sales — but the experiment went so well, and resulted in so much increased revenue, Halfbrick never changed it back.
And that was the moment when Halfbrick began to think seriously about this new phenomenon known as “free-to-play”.
[…]
See Game Studio Identity Crisis.
Post edited September 28, 2021 by scientiae
avatar
scientiae: The future web will be unrecognizable to the current population. I would expect it to be all walled garden —— think AOL before Ted Turner. "Dark Web" will then have expanded to be whatever is outside that garden.
avatar
Magnitus: If all countries were authoritarian, yes. However, there are too many at least moderately liberal countries world-wide (ie, the entire Western world, plus many countries in Asia, Africa and South America) that agree on many of the general principles, but not the specifics.

And building all that world-wide networking infrastructures is a major international endeavor that requires cooperation from a lot of international players.

Maybe a very few countries would be happy to just hand the internet over on a silver plater to a few corporations (though I suspect that would test the limits of neo-corporatism in North America however well established that it is, they've already had a fair amount of resistance with privatizing and fully controlling the operations of internal networks across the US), but most countries wouldn't.

No, nation states are not going anywhere for the foreseeable future. However hungry some groups are for world control, the world is just too big to be owned by a single or very few players.
What do you think then Magnitus about the current status of the net neutrality in the USA?
excerpt from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Net_neutrality_in_the_United_States
"net neutrality, the principle that Internet service providers (ISPs) treat all data on the Internet the same, and not discriminate, has been an issue of contention between network users and access providers since the 1990s
...
Upon becoming FCC chairman in April 2017 as part of the Trump Administration, Ajit Pai proposed to repeal the neutrality policies, returning to the previous classification of ISPs as Title I services. The draft of the proposed repeal, published in May 2017, led to over 20 million comments to the FCC. Despite a majority of these favoring retaining the 2015 Open Internet Order, the FCC still voted in favor of repealing the Order, which went into effect in June 2018 despite efforts in Congress to stay the repeal. Several states and Internet service providers challenged this ruling, and while the Federal Circuit Court of Appeals ruled in early October 2019 that the FCC has the ability to reclassify ISPs as Title I or II and allowing the rule change to stand, the Court also ruled that the FCC cannot block state or local-level net neutrality enforcement. As part of an executive order issued in July 2021, President Joe Biden has encouraged the FCC to restore the net neutrality rules undone by the Trump administration."

So, I am sorry not sharing your enthusiasm & opinion: The internet is not controlled by nation states (private corporations are deep there), neither the cyberspace is democratic (think about free speech issues, censorship, surveillance, privacy) to say the least. Or how do you explain all this?

https://www.eff.org/issues/net-neutrality
[url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PRISM_(surveillance_program]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PRISM_(surveillance_program[/url])
The only way to get GoG to stop selling DRM is to not buy the games that have it.

GoG, like many powers in charge, are counting on the masses to be sheep and swallow the propaganda and obey.
avatar
Jorev: The only way to get GoG to stop selling DRM is to not buy the games that have it.

GoG, like many powers in charge, are counting on the masses to be sheep and swallow the propaganda and obey.
We all are sheep, just our sheperds differ.



No really ... did you have the impression that the majority is happy with the hitman situation? Just because not all are ranting, it doesn't mean they all think it's a good thing. And yes, some people really cross some borders with their rage. Apart from a few mistakes it's still a very good shop.
avatar
scientiae: It’s a trend.

Millennials are already inured in social media (consider a meta-analysis like teenage suicide, which quadrupled in the decade after the iPhone came out, because so many of the Zoomer Generation live online and Instagram is fake —— photoshopping has become a verb —— but people are hardwired to unconsciously accept it as reality: their mantra “pix or it’s not real” doesn’t control for photoshopped pictures).
Sure, a greater proportion of the newer generations live online.

However, even among that generation, not everyone is glued to their phone 24/7 (I do roleplaying games at a youth center once a week and I can tell you that for a fact). If that was the case, we'd have cause to despair about our future.

I would actually call the lure of social media an emerging natural selection criteria: You can use it in moderation to connect, but if you live online at the expense of real life, you are less likely to produce viable successful offsprings.

So, I would say that there is a strong reality bias against social media addiction that plays against it.

avatar
scientiae: (though developers will need to be financing their development with online microtransactions more and more)
This is the part that I strongly disagree with. I stress the **need** verbiage. There will be a financial motivator that will probably lure a great many (perhaps most) developers in that direction.

But ultimately, if you make a quality game, it will be successful. Some people, like you said, might bemoan that they can't post their progress automatically on Facebook, but if the game is good, they'll play.

You don't need to reel them in 10 years in a row with the same game (even though many would view this as the most desirable, least-effort outcome). You should need to make a sufficient amount of 1 times solid sales.

avatar
scientiae: just as gaming didn’t kill movies, but there are more profits in movie tie-in games. (It's all about branding, which is why we get non-sequitur sequels to popular games.)
And this will be an important factor for those looking to maximize their profits and create a media empire ala Disney although not everyone who makes games or movies has that goal.

Some people (I would argue the most gifted) do it because they have a vision, and once that vision has run its course, they are happy to let it rest. I mean, do you see them making a "Manchester by the Sea" part 2, "Manchester by the Sea", the video game and "Lee at the police station trying to take the policeman's gun" figurines?

avatar
scientiae: It will just eclipse them in revenue. Using your analogy, there are still people making movies in Mongolian, but not many people watch them, even with subtitles, and even if they are free.
I would say that this analogy is flawed. There are far more people wanting an offline "leave me alone Facebook" gaming experience than there are people speaking Mongolian.

avatar
scientiae: I never said, implied, nor wished to suggest that online gaming will eliminate all other gaming. Big companies will swallow the smaller ones
To the extent that smaller companies are for sale. Some simply aren't (especially when they are a passion project). You can buy a lot, but you can't buy everything with money.

avatar
scientiae: and add their online componentry to whatever products they have. What do you think Microsoft will do with Bethesda? Windoze 11 will probably not let a computer boot without an online log-in. (We'll see.)
And this is why increasingly, company with an app store are getting taken to court over their monopolistic practices. There are limits to what the world will allow in that department.

Even though that somehow flies in the US for now (with resistance I'd say and the US is the most friendly country to those practices), I guarantee you that the world will not be happy with giving a handful of American companies a slice of their profits just because they cornered the market.

Apple has gotten away with is so far, because they are small, relative to the entire ecosystem (I would call using Apple products a choice, there are other options) and because they can't control some delivery vectors like web browsers, but if Microsoft also jumps into that wagon, there will be blowback, if not from the US, then the EU, Asia and other countries around the world. Not everyone is as tolerant of corporate monopolies as the US is.

avatar
scientiae: And people have demonstrated their desire for convenience over all else: Apple has built a trillion dollar company giving people what they could get elsewhere, cheaper, but not as easily.
And yet, Apple still only corner a minority of the market (a significant minority, but a minority nonetheless).

avatar
scientiae: (I don’t stream anything, I still watch broadcast television and buy my movies and music; can you say the same?)
Mostly. I buy either physical or drm-free digital books. I buy drm-free digital games. I buy my music at 7Digital or Basecamp in flac format.

I mostly gave up on the movie industry. They don't have anything drm-free in the digital realm and their physical offering are a pain to unlock (you tend to need specialized obscure software to do so that tends to be in a grey area legally). If there is something I truly wish to own, I'll buy it and figure out a way to rip it, but otherwise, if the movie industry is so intent on treating everything they produce like disposable garbage, I'll just oblige them and give them the least amount of money that I can get away with.
Post edited September 28, 2021 by Magnitus
avatar
Jorev: The only way to get GoG to stop selling DRM is to not buy the games that have it.
As much as it would be nice for the consumer to have that power, it is just not feasible.
For starters GOG have all sorts of customers, many not caring about DRM at all. And they might be where GOG makes most of its money.

avatar
Jorev: GoG, like many powers in charge, are counting on the masses to be sheep and swallow the propaganda and obey.
I don't think it has anything to do with propaganda. It has more to do with desires & weaknesses & lack of care ... human nature in fact.
avatar
scientiae: History is cycles.

The biggest issues facing the web are all to do with fakery.
I think the biggest issue with the web right now is privacy and security.

avatar
scientiae: The best solution is to have authorized actors.
I think most people don't care that much about piracy to be honest. Only big corps do.

I think what the internet really needs, for everyone, is more dependable software and an easier way to correctly operate networked software (it kills me that right now, there is no easy way for the layperson to deploy and use secure networked applications on the internet, that is still the realm of experts like me and in 2021, that should just not be the case). There are too many cracks right now for bad actors to exploit.

Also, we need stronger privacy laws, especially against big corporations.

avatar
scientiae: Before Microsoft mail, which was eventually eclipsed by Google-Mail (remember they offered 50MB mailbox web-mail for free?) to participate one needed a (corporate or university) registered account. The routing index to the Internet was contained in six corporate servers.
Sure, Google exerts way too much influence. No debate there.

avatar
scientiae: Also don't forget that the Dark Web is not necessarily "over there", it's between the nodes as well. Think of Facebook. People on Facebook are minutely scrutinized, yet they can still interact with with the rest of the internet.
The Dark Web, by definition, is obscure. I would say that the internet outside of Facebook is less controlled, but certainly not obscure.

I think the issue we have here is one of verbiage, more than anything else.
Post edited September 29, 2021 by Magnitus
avatar
Magnitus: Sure, a greater proportion of the newer generations live online.
[…]
I would actually call the lure of social media an emerging natural selection criteria: You can use it in moderation to connect, but if you live online at the expense of real life, you are less likely to produce viable successful offsprings.

So, I would say that there is a strong reality bias against social media addiction that plays against it.
From your mouth to God’s ear.
avatar
scientiae: (though developers will need to be financing their development with online microtransactions more and more)
avatar
Magnitus: This is the part that I strongly disagree with. I stress the **need** verbiage. There will be a financial motivator that will probably lure a great many (perhaps most) developers in that direction.

But ultimately, if you make a quality game, it will be successful. Some people, like you said, might bemoan that they can't post their progress automatically on Facebook, but if the game is good, they'll play.
Perhaps I was injudicious with my auxiliary verb. ;)

As I said microtransactions provide a commercial advantage, and the ratio is a power law. You are correct that there is no compulsion to introduce them, but try telling the bean counters when your single-revenue asset is eight months behind schedule and the head programmers want a rise in pay.
avatar
Magnitus: […] There are far more people wanting an offline "leave me alone Facebook" gaming experience than there are people speaking Mongolian.
And the amount of money to be made from casual gaming is already an order of magnitude larger than the traditional model, and increasing continuously. As you say, and I agree, this won’t end the production of games that can be bought, rather than leased, but it will affect the market significantly. Follow the money.
avatar
Magnitus: To the extent that smaller companies are for sale. Some simply aren't (especially when they are a passion project). You can buy a lot, but you can't buy everything with money.
Yes, but that is a precarious business model, vulnerable to any unforeseen delays in the return on investment. Look at the developers and notice how many have been able to survive, even after making spectacularly popular, high quality games, e.g., Black Isle. (Atari has been reborn so many times it is almost a talisman, rather than a company.) Look at the survivors, like EA. ’Nuff said.
avatar
Magnitus: […] I guarantee you that the world will not be happy with giving a handful of American companies a slice of their profits just because they cornered the market.

Apple has gotten away with is so far, because they are small, relative to the entire ecosystem (I would call using Apple products a choice, there are other options) and because they can't control some delivery vectors like web browsers, but if Microsoft also jumps into that wagon, there will be blowback, if not from the US, then the EU, Asia and other countries around the world. Not everyone is as tolerant of corporate monopolies as the US is.
The biggest selling point for Apple, after bright, shiny colours is their promotion of security. They have sought to differentiate themselves from Android-based devices by suggesting they are more secure and respectful of their users’ privacy. I am not convinced, but I can avoid using their technology, whereas a lot of younger people cannot.

As for Microsoft, their plan to coöpt every customer’s PC for their own network is indicative of what Silicon Valley expects the future to look like. Sure, it will take some convincing (especially for those of us old enough to remember the early days before the internet) but, as has been done many times before, the hurdle can be overcome with incentives.

I’ll give you a non-computer allegory. In the ’80s most private dwellings had no water meters. The state government spruiked their uptake by significantly discounting the water rates for those people who had them installed (people without a meter could not be charged pro rata, so they were penalized with a large flat rate.) Later, when most people had installed them, the water rates were raised even more.

I know someone who locked out an ex- from their personal and business PCs because they had a similar off-site management process to that which M$ is attempting to foist on the world. (It was quite funny at the time. Not for the victim, obviously, but he was a dick.)

Coupled with the extremely annoying continual-update cycle, and the unending obsession with moving controls and changing processes that constitutes each major update in the Windoze product releases, and I have had enough. Even my (sizeable, admittedly) inertia will not suffice to prevent me from never buying their operating system again. (God how I am not looking forward to investing all the time necessary to create a secure, independent Linux installation.)
avatar
scientiae: And people have demonstrated their desire for convenience over all else
avatar
Magnitus: And yet, Apple still only corner a minority of the market (a significant minority, but a minority nonetheless).
It isn’t just Apple.
Amazon hosts the CIA, so I’m guessing their AWS subsidiary is pretty good at profiling people. They keep stats on everyone; how long someone spends reading each page of each book, whether they finished it (or even started it) and what they read next, etcetera, etcetera. Cambridge Analytica demonstrated that it is possible to determine who people voted for at an election (and even if they actually voted) based on nothing but their own posts, and who their friends are.

Google has a new smartphone that learns; how do you think it does that?

(Google has shadow profiles of everyone who it doesn’t have a direct profile for; they have foreign keys in apps that aren’t even used by everyone. What I mean is, even if you have never used YouTube, Google has a profile key for you there.)

Even for those of us (less than 5% in Australia) who eschew Google, they have enough data from everyone else to determine without much doubt who we are and what we are doing.
FAANG is not just an anagram, it’s a descriptor.
avatar
Magnitus: Mostly. I buy either physical or drm-free digital books. I buy drm-free digital games. I buy my music at 7Digital or Basecamp in flac format.

I mostly gave up on the movie industry.
We have a library of over 700 movies that we watch (and, occasionally, add to) and a large digital library of music (but that doesn’t get much airtime anymore, sadly) so we use a DVD player. (We have a couple of Blu-Ray movies, but the last player died, so we’re saving up to buy a new one, since some of those titles we only own on that format.)
avatar
scientiae: The biggest issues facing the web are all to do with fakery.
avatar
Magnitus: I think the biggest issue with the web right now is privacy and security.
You can’t have security and privacy without authentication, which is poleaxed by fakery.
avatar
Magnitus: I think most people don't care that much about piracy to be honest. Only big corps do.

I think what the internet really needs, for everyone, is more dependable software and an easier way to correctly operate networked software (it kills me that right now, there is no easy way for the layperson to deploy and use secure networked applications on the internet, that is still the realm of experts like me and in 2021, that should just not be the case). There are too many cracks right now for bad actors to exploit.
I wasn’t talking about piracy.
Plug’n’play security was Huwei’s killer app. Just like the Japanese did to black-and-white television with their colour models, Huwei used economies of scale to dominate the CCTV market. (Today, if you want a camera that isn’t Chinese you have to pay a lot more for it.)
avatar
Magnitus: Also, we need stronger privacy laws, especially against big corporations.
+1
avatar
Magnitus: The Dark Web, by definition, is obscure. I would say that the internet outside of Facebook is less controlled, but certainly not obscure.

I think the issue we have here is one of verbiage, more than anything else.
The medium of our exchange is a limiting factor, Yes. :) This forum does have some redeeming features, though, like a connection-less sequential mode, providing a natural rhythm for conversations.

Rather than think of the web and The Dark Web™ it is more useful to think of the web as having bright spots and darker spots. Some parts of town have street lighting and are patrolled by police, other parts are less safe to venture after dark, etc.

Regular rectal examinations are unavoidable for those individuals on Facebook, since they (more specifically, their desires) are the products being sold to generate revenue, so the company has extensive stock control processes. (Cambridge Analytica was not an egregious actor; more, they were just doing what FB itself does, since that is their business model —— and has been from the beginning.)

I disconnect my PC when I am not using the internet, since I have no requirement for it. (I don’t stream entertainment.) Thus, technically, I am not on the internet (most of the time) and, especially after I reboot the router, which I do frequently, all the services require me to Captcha again, so they can link me back to my previous profile. (They day they don’t will be the day they don’t need to, and I fear that day is soon approaching.)
low rated
I've been playing PC games since the late 1980s; I've never seen customer service as bad or dishonest as GoG's. It has gotten to the point where I simply will not buy any more games from them. At least with Ubisoft/Origin/Steam I can get refunded for broken products.