DadJoke007: At least something good came from this pandemic. Eurovision Song Contest is canceled, I need to celebrate with a shot of whiskey later this evening.

DadJoke007: At least something good came from this pandemic. Eurovision Song Contest is canceled, I need to celebrate with a shot of whiskey later this evening.

ConsulCaesar: I hope things return to normal in time for the July/August season, and that domestic tourism will make up for the loss of international visitors, as it happened during some years of the previous economic crisis. Stay strong!

ConsulCaesar: I hope things return to normal in time for the July/August season, and that domestic tourism will make up for the loss of international visitors, as it happened during some years of the previous economic crisis. Stay strong!

DadJoke007: Why am I not surprised this got high rated at a game forum? I don't complain though, the mere thought makes me giggle with glee.

Dray2k: Also, that goes out to anyone reading this. Don't trust scaremongering articles that say that millions or billions are/will be infected by this. Just do the necessary hygeine precautions as laid out by the WHO and you will be fine.

Dray2k: This is nothing new. I don't have the research papers on hand because it was quite a long time ago (decades), but fairly sure that I've read predictions that another outbreak would've happened somewhere around 2018 and 2019, reading papers about SARS from 2007 and the papers that discuss the most recent H1N1 outbreak around 2010 or so. I'm no virologist however, just a hobby statistician however.

Not only that, but scientists did predict another outbreak with upmost certainty in 2017. It clearly was a simple matter of time for many scientists that SARS-Cov-2 would've happened again.

I've read about the virus having pretty much no NAb resistance though, which is a very good thing. Fairly sure that counter pandemic measurements (like homogenic vaccination) may happen during mid/late august or even earlier.

There is also analysis of SARS-CoV that I've been reading recently, perhaps its of interests to some. Its a bit of a scary read, but news of SARS-CoV-2 just about 1:1 similar to past research of SARS, which means we're pretty much dealing with SARS MK2 now (which is is, if you look at the virus from an outsiders perspective, it basically upgraded its way to infect people but the symtoms of covid-19 and SARS are very similar, here is another piece of data that complement this). Without fearmongering too much, I think its common sense to become ready for SARS MK3 within the next 5 to 15 years again after this outbreak is over, depending how much this pandemia will accelerate things globally in a negative way.

One major rule applies, the more people prepare when it comes to another more potent rise of SARS, the higher the chances to counter another pandemic outbreak quickly. Right now I do suspect that infections rise to be arouind 475.000 people maximum, but it is my own liberal estimation/guesswork. Its quite a high number, but nothing too scary, considering it accounts for everyone globally.

morolf: Sure, but still, if you've got symptoms that hint at Covid-19 infection, imo it might be a good idea not to take the risk of using those drugs.

richlind33: By "infected" do you mean carriers *and* people who have symptoms?

DadJoke007: As it looks, the mortality rate might be around 8,3% in Italy. Of course, there are hidden data that's hard to account for, but it's still horrifying. Those who claim that it's just like the flu forgot the Russian roulette part of it.

Gudadantza: Only on Spain Seasonal flu at 9 March 2020 has caused 6500 deaths. Even being slightly immune. Data in the rest of the world will be similar.

Do not underestimate it.

Dray2k: I've left out carriers for now (in my mind at least), mostly because the amount of virus you have in your body does matters whenever symptoms show up after the incubation time but also where the virus "sticks" (it infects parts of the neck or goes directly into the lungs, it depends) and I don't know enough about SARS at all to know how much virus you need in order for the illness to actually break out. I should've written this in my initial post, through people can always ask questions and have fun even in times like these :>! I type stuff up to spark discussion after all.

Realistically its difficult to determine the true number for the time being but for now I stick to the close-to-500k-worldwide one as the hill to die on. I'm really doubtful that the number of infected/sick people will reach above that. More can be said about it after the next three weeks I'd say. Since we're about a week when the data of the worldwide outbreak became feaseable (3 weeks prior to today those people who're now ill became infected) and whether or not the scale of infected people in- or decreases. I'm also interested about daily infected people and whether or not we will be seeing the already projected decrease in numbers, due to the political decisions made worldwide.

EDIT: Addes a few things to clarify but had to erase the wikipedia link to what I mean by using the term "scale" because it couldn't be parsed properly. It should also be noted that I'm implying physiologically quantifyable when I mean infected, so even slightly ill people with covid-19 are included within my estimation.