Again a preference that Hitler would have. Be in an early government where you can still safely pass an L. That's basically the text-book play for Hitler.

So, if you're Liberal, you should re-think your priorities. But if you're Hitler: ha! Gotcha! ;-)

Seriously, with your priorities being what they are, you stay in my personal top-three 'might be Hitler' picks!

And yet it's how i would prefer to play regardless what role i was. Merely because I'm me.

Now that is Gambler's Fallacy.

I know. My question is, does the "extra" government that rtcvb selects now counts too?
(zeo answered that: yes).

Why?
I could very well be Hitler. Passing L's in first governments to get trusted is textbook Hitler play.

Why????
Joe could very well be Hitler.

OK, @rtcvb pick a President. Me. I think everyone here agrees that I'm most trusted liberal, and if I'm Hitler I won't be dangerous as a President. So I think this is the best choice.
Make it official so we can get on with it.

Next, whom should I pick as Chancellor:
I trust SPF whom I personally tested, but as stated if he were Hitler he would pass L anyway. I have metagame reasons to believe he's Liberal, but I'm not taking the risk.
Ditto for trent. He passed a liberal policy, but could be Hitler too.

So, looking at people who are not likely to be Hitler, I'm thinking of choosing... Lift.

Yes, out of him and Joe I think him more likely to be scum. But there is no way he's Hitler. He wouldn't purposely create conflict if he were, thus excluding himself from any future government. He could be regular scum, but if he is, then one of those things will happen:
_ He passes an L so as not to reveal himself, and we get an L policy.
_ He passes an F, after being given an L, thus 100% exposing himself as scum to me. And I think this confirms Joe. No way would scum!Lift create conflict with scum!Joe, and absolutely absolutely no way would scum!Lift create conflict with hitler!Joe. Thus at the expense of Lift exposing himself, we get another confirmation. Plus it will give us other info.
_ I get FFF. Well, that's bad. But if I get FFF it doesn't matter who my chancellor is anyway. Incidentally, if I do get FFF I'm calling rtcvb a definite fascist.


So... thoughts on Lift as Chancellor?

If not Lift, my second choice is scene. Again I don't trust him to be liberal/fascist, but I'm pretty sure he's not Hitler. If he were, his scum buddies would have tried to get him confirmed. But I noticed nothing of the sort.

That's what i figured. Beyond that it's out of my hands, i will guess me being in government again is a low percentage at this point.

@zeogold I select ZFR as next president.

Afterwards Flub is president as per normal rotation.

Ofc, i was pointing out that he invoked the same with the consecutive 3F draws for pooka and lift.

I don't think if I like Lift as Chancellor. Because if Trent is Scum, then Lift is probably Hitler. Correct me if I'm wrong but I think you said you didn't trust Trent earlier in the game. If that's true you can't trust Lift not to be Hitler, by proxy. Lift if Hitler either drew an FFF or drew LFF and didn't risk going to 4-1 down. My re-read of the thread made Lift sit less well with me for the reasons I've already stated above. And if Lift is regular Scum we go 4-3 down. Not too bad but what if we get 1 bad draw? Or a bad draw then Scum get into government?

I don't think even if you were Hitler you pass the L to go 3-0 down. I don't think I'd risk doing that as Hitler. The deficit looks too great. And I suppose it's kind of Liberal that you're asking me this. Because you're right Hitler ruins his chance of a Hitler winning scenario so maybe I'm wrong on picking to go 2-1 as Hitler. So maybe you or SPF could be Hitler. It's a risky play either way. Hitler probably tries to suggest other chancellors in this scenario though. The fact you've been in 3 governments before we've goto 3 F and you're in the next government as president and probably another presidency means you can't really be Hitler.

Hitler also wouldn't fancy 3 Presidencies, which you've just pretty much accepted. There would be protest from his Fascist scumbudies about him being President. There is no protest, everyone is going with it. So ZFR can't be Hitler and he can't be regular fascist because surely if Fascist he discards the L at 2-0 down.

So let's say you're Liberal or even Hitler (unlikely). It makes Joe unlikely to be Hitler by proxie. That and the fact I scumread Lift more so than Joe. I don't have a strong read on Joe otherwise if I'm honest but the fact he was talking about being president also makes him less likely to be Scum

Lift is a good choice imo. And you scene look more and more scummy to me. Lift-Hitler wouldn't have gone into a disagreement with Joe. So worst case Lift is scum. But then Joe can be scum too. @zfr, i would pick pooka. I don't think he's Hitler and if he doesn't turn on us, it would clear me too.

I forgot this and it's a good point that means Lift probably isn't Hitler but likely is Scum. But the fact you're supporting Lift, who is likely to be Scum if Pooka is Liberal does make me think more so that you and Pooka and Lift are one Scum Team.

The fact the probability odds have been constantly explained to you and you constantly argue against probability looks very bad for you.

You're still riding on that. Also do you think that scum would expose themselves like that. I still think you are scum by the way you always try to shift the blame on me.

Yes I believe in maths and probability

Google 'OMGUS'. That's your current symptom if you're Liberal. Here I'll link you

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Oh_My_God_You_Suck

Otherwise you're Scum. Not sure which

You're wrong. I have only a gut feeling against trent. I can trust Lift not to be Hitler. He wouldn't create a conflict with Joe, no matter what.

You're trying to turn 60% 3F chances into 0% 3F. Come on dude.

How? As a Liberal I have no idea who Hitler is. How does that make Joe unlikely to be Hitler by proxy? Just because a liberal selected him?

On further thought that's probable. It still doesn't make him a good choice if he's scum.