No, I don't think it was right either way.

A fascist policy still gives information. And presidential power. A random draw (depending on the odds) gives nothing. I'd only vote for random if I was pretty sure the current government is wrong.

Little choice when drawing 3F's.

How convenient.

Are you going to pick me as next president?

I can if you prefer. I hadn't decided on anyone yet.

Ofc RTCB could've burried a L and claim he drew 3F. Well, if he hasn't lied we have a 62% chance of at least a L. So zfr, you should have a good chance of passing a L to whomever you choose as chancellor. I suggest picking someone non-Hitler. Ie: me.

Well i don't know who to set as president next. If ZFR wants it he can take it, or he can decide instead and i'll tell post it.

This is true, i specified this logic/strategy earlier. But also the likelihood of 3F's is far higher once you have 3L's on the board. With no veto power, F's are going to flow (from time to time) no matter who is in the government.

So 3-3 and absolutely vital we don't get Hitler in GOV or the games over. Best to analyse who isn't Hitler. I know I'm not and I don't think ZFR is. If he is he's played a blinder. Joe I tend to think is unlikely to be but he could be Scum. Lift I think could be Scum but I doubt he's Hitler. It looks like my RTSCV Hitler theory could have some merit. There's a 40% RTSCV could be liberal but he could also have drawn FFF and have been Fascist. Trent seems liberal with a decent amount of scumhunting but he seems more lurky than normal, which could be because he has something to hide. Blotunga wanting to be in government so desperately is kind of concerning that maybe because he's Hitler wanting to build Liberal Credit.

To RTCSV's credit he hasn't tried to smear ZFR. But then again neither did Lift or Pooka. But then Hitler would probably do the same thing.

It is very unlikely RTCSV, Lift and Pooka are all Liberal and if they are we've probably lost. But more likely there's 2 Scumbuddies amongst them happily discarding our L cards. Hopefully we have isolated Hitler at this stage but it's unlikely we have.

Good question, hadn't thought of that

Not really, we know now that RTCSV shouldn't in government because there was a 60% chance of a Liberal card. That's better than turning over a Fascist card, which would be probable and getting zero information. If you were playing with a player who constantly wanted to be in government would you be suspicious that the player wanted to be in government because he was in fact Hitler and wanted to build Liberal Credit?

At this point I'm the only one that I trust completely. So yea, I don't mind.

Yea, that didn't answer my question:

If you were playing with a player who constantly wanted to be in government would you be suspicious that the player wanted to be in government because he was in fact Hitler and wanted to build Liberal Credit?

Imho Hitler wouldn't try to be so obvious and let others push him towards that role. That's how it was last time, when I was actually Hitler. What are the chances that I'm Hitler again?
Maybe a pooka chancellor would be an alternative, if he's liberal it would confirm me, else I don't mind being labeled a suspect if I take a scum down with me.

@Blotunga (and everyone else) let's say you're not chancellor who would you find least Hitlery?

10% Chance. The odds of you being Hitler twice before the event of you being Hitler first time are very low. But you being Hitler at the start of this game resets to 10% chance.

My issue is Lift was quite happy to nominate you. But Lift is a smart guy, he knows if he genuinely drew FFF it is very unlikely that Pooka didn't discard a Liberal card. He knows Pooka reads you as Liberal. So Lift should be very suspicious of both Pooka and Blotunga because of this. Why isn't Lift suspicious of you? Perhaps because Lift and Pooka are both fascist scum and you are Hitler? This is my concern. Maybe all 3 of you are Liberal and we got very unlucky.

Also think of the last game, I don't think you ever goto be in government. Now let's talk theory and just say you are Hitler in this game, wouldn't you learn from that and try to get into government earlier? I think yes. How would you play it if you were Hitler?

Lift had a great chance to discredit me, true. It would be highly convenient if Pooka, Lift and me were a scum triangle, alas we're not. The odds were the same as the current government, 60% and then again about 60% for 3F. I think there is a likelyhood that both Pooka and Lift are Liberal.

If I was Hitler, I for certainly wouldn't have tried to get presidency earlier. As I said, I'm here to help as best I can. You on the other hand usually tried to sabotage most of my initiatives, which makes you at least suspect. Only a scum would know a true liberal so lobbying against him would be a good move, I think.

Well, that went as feared. My guess is that rtcvb either really did draw FFF (independend of his alignment) or that he buried an L. (More likely from the likelihoods of the draw).

@ZFR: the failed governments counter is reset as soon as a government is voted into office.

@all: we have to take great care from now on not to make Hitler a Chancellor. That means we need at least two players with a low Hitler probability between whom we can alternate until we have passed the next two L. Concerning Hitlers: I still think that the Fascists will have tried their best to get Hitler into an early government. Either that, or they are all sitting towards the end of the table and didn't have a chance to do so. So perhaps it would be a good idea to make someone Chancellor, who wasn't in a government yet. That might still end up being a regular Fascist, but we would be quite safe from the Hitler disaster.

rtcvb is still a possible Hitler with the way he played before. Maybe he got cold feed and didn't dare to pass the 4th L. So I wouldn't trust him with any future government. I would still trust ZFR with a government, at least with a presidency, since he didn't have a choice but to pass F. Unless rtcvb and ZFR are both Fascists, but I don't think so.

1/10

This kind of thinking almost made me chancellor in the last game, which would've ended in a fascist victory if it would've went through. Hitler could be hiding even now, though I agree it's unlikely.

60% x 60% = 36% chance that no Liberal card came up. Or 64% chance one or more of Lift and Pooka are Scum. Now if you're genuinely Liberal do you not agree that that isn't in fact likely? Also if you're all Liberal wouldn't they vote for your Presidency as they both believe you're Liberal? If they're Fascist they'd want to block your government if you are either Hitler or Liberal, correct?

From those odds do you not find it good Liberal play to avoid your government given both Lift and Pooka have vouched for you either directly or indirectly by not having a conflict with you? Liberals are meant to sabotage likely fascist governments. Would Fascists do this or would they buddy upto you and vote the other way?

More importantly would Hitler sabotage governments and risk being frozen out? Let's take the scenario that I am a Fascist (I'm not). Well we goto 4-3 but we know to take me out of future governments because we trust ZFR. We know to analyse my votes and criticisms and believe the opposite to be true. We also don't risk getting Hitler in government and losing.



This sounds a bit too much like stating the obvious Lift. If you're Scum who could you want to be Chancellor that hasn't been in power already? Blotunga perhaps? Hmmmm