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ZFR: No, because when I did take them seriously back many games ago and tried to reply to them, all arguments inevitably went down the same road: you refusing to see where you made a mistake, insisting that you're right all along, repeating the same wrong arguments and finally playing the "stop taking the game so seriously" card.
Ego(my own), the way my mind works, my limited (compared to some others) understanding of the game/etc....all that contributed to me replying as I did sometimes. So even when I might've been wrong, I likely couldn't see it(or didn't want to).

That said, I am trying to move past that by doing things like raising points/asking questions and also listening a bit more to others on certain things.

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ZFR: I've been there too many times. I want to enjoy the game - it's something I do to relax, so for my own sanity I'm not getting into any arguments with you.

I'll stop the jabs though.
I also don't want to argue....all I wish for is to be treated like every other player, by having my questions/points addressed and not ignored.

That said, I am appreciative of you agreeing to stop the jabs.
(and i'm sorry if I somehow make the game less fun for you sometimes)
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Lifthrasil: Would also vote Bookwyrm or flubb, but more on that later,
Is it later yet?
(no votes in this post)
++++++++++++++++

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Dogmaus: GH: I can't tag you because browser is being annyoing and I don't want to mess anything up again, but thanks for the link, I didn't think of looking back in the sign up thread!
Not a problem :)

+++

As Reagan sorts his inventory yet again, he contemplates taking a vacation.....preferably to a locale a bit cooler.

"Ah, but should I go alone or take friends with me? I mean, who would be so deserving? Just last week, several of the guards were even making fun of my (supposed) bad breath and poor posture, and the week before that, someone tried to steal my best rug! Ah, if I take anyone along on my trip to the glorious place known as Greenland, it will have to be only the best of the best...I must take some time to think on this matter"

Reagan then goes to a nearby table and takes a piece of fruit from a bowl sitting upon it. Taking a bite, he remembers moments of seasons past with fondness.
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ZFR: I wouldn't put past dogmaus to fake this.
Thank you? I'm a natural blonde.
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JoeSapphire: How long did your event run for, [comma, raise eyebrow] Microfish?
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ZFR: So your question was for Micro? You were wondering if his event (?) ran for a long time and he missed the NK too?
yeh lol
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ZFR: So your question was for Micro? You were wondering if his event (?) ran for a long time and he missed the NK too?
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JoeSapphire: yeh lol
So....

Mango and Micro were absent and dogmaus had no idea she should submit an NK.

And that is my crazy-ass theory. #crazytheorybraggingrights
You're right in the sense that if you wanted to make a bet on someone being scum twice in a row and each time it was a 1 in 10 chance (just for sake of example) then the single probability of being them being scum twice would be 1 in 100. The mistake is in thinking that this means anything, because any other combination is just as unlikely. Rolling scum in the first game and being the doc in the second is just as unlikely. Ahh, lots of other people explain it better. If you still can't grasp it, perhaps you can just accept that it's something you don't understand?

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ZFR: If we didnt likely have 3 acum, I'd have wondered if the missed kill was because dogmaus and Mango failed to submit.
I know this is a joke, but it would be even funnier if it was true. Maybe Leoric as the third? You could write a play about it called Waiting for Mangot.

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JoeSapphire: How long did your event run for Microfish?
Hmm? ZFR was running an event for Microfish?

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Dogmaus: While my non vote edited posts were downvoted and followed by a any sort of strong reaction, Mango's post with their vote for me, illegal and edited, was upvoted. By whom? Maybe scum.
That is a bit of a strange phenomenon. Until relatively recently (last year or two) it was pretty rare to see high or low rated posts in mafia threads. I haven't up or downvoted anything in this game, but maybe we have a silent audience?

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Dogmaus: I found catte's reaction or lack thereof to Mango's post suspicious, after their reaction at my edited post.
I considered it, but GH had literally just mentioned it in the post before mine so I considered it overkill (especially since my reply to you was there for Mango to see).

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Dogmaus: I can't talk for Mango but I'm not absent. I could think that this is something made up by scum to make townies suspect me? I've been checking the game, following and posting when necessary. I don't see how interventions like post 327 can make someone less suspicious, and their lack more. Scum doesn't have a limited number of posts available so it's nonsense.
I sympathise. I am frequently accused of lurking when I simply don't have anything to say. People see lurking as scummy because it's hard the other players to form a read of someone who doesn't post much. The way I force myself to post more is to keep a notepad window open while reading the thread and just comment on things as I go. This can bring accusations of posts without substance if at the end of it I didn't have much of any use to say, but sometimes there just isn't anything useful to say.

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JoeSapphire: How long did your event run for, [comma, raise eyebrow] Microfish?
Oh.

___

I think Dogmaus is derpcleared. Well, maybe newbiecleared would be a kinder way of putting it.

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ZFR: I'll stop the jabs though.
Get vaccinated folks!

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ZFR: I know in my first game here I pretneded not to know what QT is so as not to give away that I'm a mason with acces to QT chat.
I wouldn't put past dogmaus to fake this.
Dayum, you devious.

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JoeSapphire: yeh lol
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ZFR: So....

Mango and Micro were absent and dogmaus had no idea she should submit an NK.

And that is my crazy-ass theory. #crazytheorybraggingrights
Hey come on, crazy theories are my gimmick! Remember the one time I was right in your Papers Please game?
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Lifthrasil: Would also vote Bookwyrm or flubb, but more on that later,
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ZFR: Is it later yet?
Yes, it is. Sorry, I forgot to discuss this since the NL that happened had more weight.

Boowyrm was on the NL wagon too. And he did attempt some role-fishing. Even though he declared that as a joke afterwards. Not strong reasons, but then none of the reasons on D1 were.
Flubb was just popping in and out of the game without contributing much. That is usual flubb D1 style, however I still felt that he was holding back with the voting. Especially after declaring that he'd support a GH lynch, he didn't bother to vote. Instead he voted Joe, for his absence. And didn't bother to reply to my question whether Joe's absence was the only reason for that vote or whether there was something more.

Bookwyrm reads much townier Today. But flubb not so much. For flubb, just like for micro, the not hammering looks bad.

Other observation: ZFR is quite abrasive today. You OK, ZFR? Or is something in RL stressing you?

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Lifthrasil: dogmaus, Mango: absence. Are they overwhelmed with being scum and don't know what to write? Or did they lose interest in the game, after noticing that it does require quite some attention?
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Dogmaus: I can't talk for Mango but I'm not absent. I could think that this is something made up by scum to make townies suspect me? I've been checking the game, following and posting when necessary. I don't see how interventions like post 327 can make someone less suspicious, and their lack more. Scum doesn't have a limited number of posts available so it's nonsense.
Nice that you're active now. And yes, you're right. Placeholder-posts like #327 don't tell us anything about the alignment of the poster. However, some players find playing scum convincingly difficult. As scum, you have to take care about everything you write to avoid self-contradictions and accidental slips. As town, you can just write what you think as you think it. No need for tailoring your posts. Therefore, writing is more difficult for scum and experience shows, that especially new players sometimes are very silent when playing scum, because they are afraid of posting something wrong. ... But again, writing nothing and writing placeholders like #327 are equal in use. Scum can very well try to coast along under the radar of everyone by posting noncommittal posts now and then without actually saying much.

Then again, there are also scum who post volumes of (pseudo-)analysis, so that they appear very invested. But that strategy usually comes with experience.

About the three scum assumption: that, again, is just a standard value. In normal games, about a quarter of the players are Mafia. We are 12 players and so 3 scum is a reasonable assumption. Unless our mod balanced the game somehow differently.

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GymHenson: Btw, a question: will you be doing a more in depth wagon analysis?
(I know we didn't get a complete wagon, but we came very close and i'd love to see you do some more analysis and share your thoughts in greater detail)
I won't have the time to do so on the weekend. My mother comes for a visit after more than a year of not having seen each other due to Covid. So I'll be quite busy. Also, wagon analysis has the most value if it is based on a flip. So that we know whether it was a mis-lynch or not. In you case, we don't know your alignment. But still, it would be useful to analyse all the movements on and off wagons on D1.

About your statistics question: yes, every game is uncorrelated to the previous game. That's the strange thing about statistics. Rolling 6-6-6 is quite unlikely. However, if you have already rolled 6-6 that doesn't make another 6 less likely than any other specific number on the die. The roll will still be independent with a 1/6-th chance of another 6 and a 5/6-th chance for a non-6. Just like it would be if you hadn't rolled the die before ... But we can discuss this post game in more detail. I don't want to derail the game.
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Lifthrasil: Other observation: ZFR is quite abrasive today. You OK, ZFR? Or is something in RL stressing you?
I'm happy as a clam. I'll tone down the abrasiveness by three notches.
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Bookwyrm627: ...<eep>...

-Flub had the chance to hammer and was aware of it (Post 251). He chose not to do so. Fault, but this is in line with Post 236. Kind of makes me think we don't have town GH and scum Flub; scum Flub might spare his buddy, and town Flub might doubt the wagon, but I'm not sure whether scum Flub spares town GH.

...<opp>...
I posted (#251) regarding GymHenson being at L-1. Having stayed up far too late, I went to bed before work that night.

Had I been able to stay awake I would have hammered GymHenson for certain. I didn't initially because he obviously needed time to mount a defense or claim or do what he wound up doing.
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Lifthrasil: Other observation: ZFR is quite abrasive today. You OK, ZFR? Or is something in RL stressing you?
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ZFR: I'm happy as a clam. I'll tone down the abrasiveness by three notches.
This clam?
Attachments:
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Bookwyrm627: ...<great stuff you should go reread>...
Great.

Thanks.
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ZFR: I'm happy as a clam. I'll tone down the abrasiveness by three notches.
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my name is supyreor catte: This clam?
Mmmmmmm.... clams.
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Lifthrasil: @flubb: why didn't you return to hammer? You knew, just like Micro, that we were in danger of getting a no-lynch!
I answered this a few posts previous, and I wish I could've. No Lynch is so deflating.
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Lifthrasil: Other observation: ZFR is quite abrasive today. You OK, ZFR? Or is something in RL stressing you?
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ZFR: I'm happy as a clam. I'll tone down the abrasiveness by three notches.
Quitter.