I made my case in Posts and [url=https://www.gog.com/forum/general/gog_mafia_60_hmss_spectator/post331]331
Basically, if we don't lynch Pooka and hit another Townie, we are at LYLO tomorrow. Now if Pooka is Town, scum might gamble exactly on that and might leave Pooka alive. Because if Pooka survives the Night he will look even more suspicious tomorrow. So that we basically would have to lynch him - and if he is Town, that would end the game.

I do see your reasons and I agree that his investigation will give us some information one way or the other. But it is a gamble. A gamble, that is only worth the risk if we are reasonably sure that today's 'replacement lynch' for Pooka is scum. But I would prefer to lynch Pooka and get the information that we will get from his flip (and the subsequent analysis) now, rather than risk the LYLO trap. Especially since I am rather confident that Pooka is scum and if we manage to lynch scum today, we won't even be at LYLO tomorrow.

Not exactly. I don't see ZFR, Lift, or Wyrm as scum, regardless of the way Pooka flips. What's more, Micro's behaviour can be read suspiciously whether Pooka is Town or not. Take a look
I realize I flipped my vote rather quickly, but I only figured this out after some reflection. Pooka's alignment tells me nothing about Micro, and I feel the same goes for Trent.

Will you give a rating of your confidence level as a percentage of 100?

I understand the first part. But I disagree on Micro. He had ample opportunity and justification to hammer Pooka. He could have just gone along with any of the reasonings provided, especially since he has a history of tagging along. So if Pooka actually flips town, that would make Micro a bit less scummy, since Scum-Micro would probably have been very tempted to hammer Town-Pooka.

You quoted two opposing opinions on that. Mine and ZFR's. But what is your own opinion?


It's hard to give percentage ratings. But I guess it could be somewhere in the vicinity of 75%. Pooka is more likely scum than not, in my book. But it's not 'damn sure that he's scum'. So, not in the >90% range.

My working theory is that he is scum together with Micro. Micro's voting history is quite interesting. He only has voted three times.
1. no-lynch
2. flubb (tagging along with my suspicion of flubb)
3. ZFR - and this one is spicy. He votes ZFR, because ZFR was one of the biggest pushers for Pooka's elimination. But in the same post (298) he states that he thinks that Pooka is perhaps scum...

So he votes someone for pushing a wagon on someone whom he deems suspicious. That doesn't fit at all. It would make sense to go after the biggest pusher on a train after the target of that train flipped town. But going for the biggest pusher on a train one claims to agree with (without ever being on it), looks really off.


In conclusion: if we can't reach a majority on Pooka, who is my preferred target, I might switch to Micro. Because if these two are the scum-team, then it doesn't matter much whom we lynch first. Or it might even be beneficial to lynch the other scum first, for the additional information we gain from Pooka's "investigation", as you pointed out. But for that, we have to be very sure that Micro is scum. I still think lynching Pooka would be the safer choice for town.

Vote Count

Microfish_1 - 2 votes (Bookwyrm627, RedFireGaming)
PookaMustard - 2 votes (ZFR, Lifthrasil)
ZFR - 2 vote (Microfish_1, PookaMustard)
RedFireGaming - 1 vote (trentonlf)

Not voting: No one

Microfish_1, PookaMustard, and ZFR are all tied as closest to lynch, at L-2.

With 7 players, 4 is a majority.

The deadline is approximately 2 days from now.

---------------

ZFR, this is your first official warning. Please be more careful about double-posting.

I disagree here. From his vantage point he saw Bookwyrm, myself, trent and you willing to lynch Pooka, who was providing very feeble defenses. If I were scum!Micro who knew Pooka was Town, instead of hammering I'd happily stay off the wagon and watch it going to its inevitable lynch while I say "if Pooka is Town, ZFR must be scum and vice versa".

Hm. That's a valid point too. So maybe Red wasn't so wrong after all: Micro stays scummy no matter which way Pooka flips.

The way I see it, from Micro's point of view Pooka's lynch seemed as follows: Bookwyrm was voting, trent was voting, I mentioned I'd vote, you mentioned you'd vote. Pooka was offering very weak defense and digging himself deeper into a hole. Ergo, it seemed his lynch was, if not inevitable, at the very least very probable.

So with that in mind, what are the possibilities. If Micro is watching an inevitable/probable lynch and decides to stay away, and in fact decides to make a point of not voting for Pooka, while voting for me despite calling Pooka as "suspicious".
What does Pooka's flip say in that case?

_If Pooka flips town, I'd say Micro is probably Scum. As I mentioned from his point he's too happy to stay off the wagon. It's going to be lynched anyway and he tries to push it further by calling Pooka suspicious, while at the same time refusing to vote him and driving the point that if Pooka is Town, then those on his wagon, especially me are Scum.

_ If Pooka flips scum, I don't know. I'd imagine Scum!micro trying to bus his buddy in the face of an inevitable lynch, then again he might heistate to bus seeing how it means he'll be left all alone, also especially if Pooka is Godfather. So it's a maybe-maybe case.

All in all though, given Micro's recent actions I'm more and more inclined to start believing in the possibility of Pooka being Town and Micro scum. It would explain many things:
_ Micro's refusal to get onto Pooka's wagon despite calling Pooka suspicious. Why should he do it, when there are other people happy to do it, while he can stay off and keep his hands clean.
_ Micro's appeal to Pooka "If you're Town, you know by my playstyle that I'm town too".
_ Micro's refusal to believe TownZFR+TownPooka a possibility. If Pooka flips town he's already laying the groundwork to make me next lynch, and conversely should I get lynched, it makes Pooka that more easier to lynch next without NKing him.

With time running out, I think I'd be happy to join the Micro wagon.

unvote
Vote Micro <- again purposely not bolded, don't want to get him to L-1 just yet before discussing fully further.

as i've said often, I am swayed(?) relatively easily by various arguments. I think Pooka is maybe scum, maybe town. I've listed him as such. i do not consider him the scummiest, I consider ZFR the scummiest.
- I would vote for Pooka just to clear things up, BUT not 4 days away from deadline or without more proof.
Overall, I find Pooka less scummy than ZFR. If both of them are town I will be shocked. Pooka's arguments appeal to me more than ZFR's do, but ZFR's appeal just enough that I'm unsure of Pooka.

I think ZFR sees me attack him and is trying to make up reasons where I am scum. I'm town. Remember what I said about the whole half-lie being more palatable than a full-lie thing? I think that is why ZFR is so pushy for me to be lunched. However, Pooka's D2 refusal to vote for anyone until I did is a major blow against him.

Again, I doubt very much that Pooka is scum. However, there is just enough doubt that I would consider voting for him, if only to clear things up. If you lunch me, you'll find out just how untrustworthy ZFR (main driver behind my wagon) might be. I'm Town.

Red is approaching scum-range quite fast, and his D1 immunity no longer applies.

I'm fearing a ZFR/Book or ZFR/Lift team, but am considering a ZFR/Red team. Of course, I could be reading the whole thing wrong, especially given my track record. If Pooka is scum, I'll be ashamed that I defended him so long, though mostly I've defended in interest of not quick-lunching.

the rush D2 to vote Pooka is quite scummy. I don't have time atm because company to look up who was doing it; ZFR was one of them.

I've been away from any internet access all day, so I was unable to see any reaction. I'm happy that one of my posts contributed to discussion.

I'm too tired to make responses right now. Will try to post more tomorrow.

Have a good night! And yes, you have been contributing to the discussion. We certainly appreciate that! :-D
[Especially when compared to one game we had where a new player joined up and made only one post (about the flavor, as I recall) in the entire first week. :O ]

This in one post?



I just got on your wagon. Literally. Lift mentioned you multiple times yesterday, Book started your wagon today. What's your angle?

Hm. Okay.

This whole post is a mess.

For clarification: I meant "Lift mentioned you multiple times yesterDay, Book started your wagon toDay."

It seems the issue I have with RedFireGaming’s posts doesn’t bother anyone else. It seems today’s lynch is going to come down to Pooka or Microfish, and between the two I believe Pooka more than Microfish. If it comes down to it I will vote Microfish to avoid a no lynch.

If I had to pick now I would still rather lynch RedFireGaming, he keeps wagon jumping like he’s just trying to find the easiest lynch to get on. His posts I pointed out before (342 & 353) that were 7 hours apart contradict each other. If he’s not scum I’ll be surprised.