HSL has made pretty much zero comments at all on your claim. I don't think this is the way town hyper plays.

If mchack had not claimed Mason would your thoughts still be the same as this post?




This surprises me as well, and I would have expected something from Hyper as the claim was made when mchack was not in danger of being lynched and made it harder for town to win. To me a town Hyper would have definitely said something about it instead of ignoring it especially since Hyper was giving mchack so much grief over his play right before the claim.

Vote HSL

funny you should say that, after yesterday...
you shouldn't help on lynching yourself when you know you are town (obviously) self preservation and all. But about the other two in the three... Do you in fact have an investigative role? Do you _know_ people outside of your (scum) pool (which would be 1, if vanilla as you claim)? why should I trust you that leonard won't flip town? what exactly is it that makes your read on leonard (+ adalia and hsl) so much better than mine(/ours)?

I am objecting to what could be talking scum on the main thread. I think it is really not ok. Most of the problem scum has is that they can't be sure what the other team does. writing in the main thread about night actions this team should do or that (even if it's killing the other scum team, could be a threat from you directed at the other team, who knows. I don't but I don't appreciate any talk like that. As if this goes on it can be used for the scum teams to make arrangements in thread.

---

sigh, ok. let's see what he has to say, then we have had everyone from the three.
But afterwards can we please decide on _one_ of the three and stay there. please. I really want a flip by now and I want it to be scum.

unvote
vote HSL

HypersomniacLive, you have been charged by the mason police of being probably scum. How do you plead?
Are you going for the vanilla claim aswell or will you take out the big gun and false claim mason yourself?
making it clear to three of us that you are indeed scum...
(You know it would help if you simply voted for one of the other two and record your suspicions in the open...)

Unvote: Bookwyrm627


Vote:HypersomniacLive

After I slept on it my internal feeling is more in tune with what adalia (or I think it was him, no time to check right now) - even though I really don't like the way he chose to do it, it feels like Wyrm has Town's best interest in mind, so I don't think I'll be voting him. I see something happening towards HSL, I'll read what after I come back a bit later.

*waves to all* I'm back after a grueling 8 hour car drive yesterday. Only scanned the last umpty posts, and will very much need to dig in, together with my continuing reread.

For the moment, gut feeling and my partial reread would make me vote either HSL or Leonard, though I'm not so certain I like the current wagon on HSL.

Bookwyrm's analysis... phew. Just trying to write a single thought about it is making me dive into the analysis rabbit hole while I only intended this to be a swift checking in post. *g* I guess I can see it coming from a town mindset more than from scum, as I can't find fault with his argument that mchack basically gave the game away by his claim + statements + wagon. I like that Sage's inactivity has earned me a 67% chance of being a mason, and thus probable safety from lynching and conversion.

I repeat.

Sage is one in a million.

@all

Can everyone please just take an example from trent, flub and krypsyn?
I really don't want _anyone_ to talk about masons anymore. I want all talk reduced to the minimum you need to decide for yourselves which of the three (adalia, bookwyrm, hsl) you find scummiest and then lynch him. (you will not hit a mason there) Let's just wait for Hypers answer and then decide on one (each had a fair chance to have their say) and pile on. We do not even need scum to help in that lynch (tomorrow we might)

Then we can leave it to each individual scum team to decide on who to take their chances on and tomorrow we can decide what to do then from the flips. And I am in no way opposed to talking clearly and naming the other masons then and have them back me up.

But right now this is simply talk that might save 1 vanilla but _will_ have two vanillas turned to scum tomorrow. (or two dead masons)
It is not a tradeoff that's worth it for town. it is not. IT IS SIMPLY NOT. Please stop. (which is exactly why trents post garners exactly 0 town points)

EBWOP
...(which is exactly why Bookwyrms post garners exactly 0 town points)

sorry, caught the mistake only on reread after posting. :( I of course meant Bookwyrm. Trent did nothing of the sort.

Question for people who're good at game analysis and statistics:
Would it be better to lynch the other mutant, thus being virtually certain to prevent a conversion and having wiped out that team, with the probable result of playing a 4-man cyborg team against 6 townies on D3, or would it be better to lynch a cyborg (with no way to know if a conversion gets removed), with some chance of scum-vs-scum actions ending up being beneficial for town due to added uncertainty on both sides?

IF we knew who was in which team, we could think about that from a strategic perspective. since we don't (I don't at least) and the only way to get that info is by flip. would you care to rather lay down a vote on whoever you think might be scum?
(if you have so many scum reads that you can't decide on one then just pick the one you feel most comfortable with being scum and that is also in my most wanted list (adalia, hsl, bookwyrm) and hopefully we'll see a flip soon. Wagons on other people might just completely spill the beans on who my partners are... and I'd really _hate_ that to happen today. I hope you understand.)

Compliment taken as indicated, and reciprocally, you are more than smart enough to be using your above explanations as cover. I've not discarded the idea that you are town, but I'm not ruling out that you are scum, either.

For better or for worse, I'll probably be dead before you will, considering the way things are currently going.

Considering how abruptly the mason claim shifted things, it is hard to say.

Assuming that there was no mason claim at all, then I might possibly still be there. That is where I was publicly come end of Day 1, so there wasn't any reason to alter the list at the start of Day 2. Reasonable arguments during Day 2, and a shift in focus, may have brought me elsewhere.

I already had Leonard, ZFR, and Dedo in my personal suspicion list, with a sense of unease, but I think I've already covered my thoughts on them. Depending on how the Day went, I might have tried trotting one of those names out (or not). Now that the masons are apparently out, I feel free to go ahead and put their names out there.

I will say that if Mchack didn't claim, but he did use the kind of reasoning that he's been using on me for the past RL day or so, then my vote would be parked firmly on him right now. It is so bad that I can't honestly deny that I'm tempted to park there anyway.

If you're a mason with him, then you guys really need to drop the stupid microscope and get more players to be active. For example, what read do you have on Krypsyn, and why is it that?

Because you're not even trying. You just want one of us lynched, and sure as far as I know you might even have a 66% chance of hitting scum if Hyper and Bookwyrm both turn out to be scum, but if we don't hit someone with a conversion chance now that the masons are all but outed we are likely to be up one scum at night anyway.

Worst case scenario (with a scum cyborg lynch but not someone with a conversion) is both scum successfully convert and we go into tomorrow with five scum and five town. Sure, scum are going to compete against each other, but town's chances of winning at that point get pretty slim and we pretty much have to rely on scum killing each other, and would require a scum vote to secure any lynch.
Best case scenario both teams NK and hit the same mason, we go into tomorrow with three scum and six town. We then need to hit an original scum or the last mutant tomorrow or we risk another double kill / convert which leaves us right back at today's worst case scenario.

If we can knock out the last mutant then even if the cyborgs successfully convert we will be 4 v 6 with only 1 NK to deal with. 3 of those six will be masons so it will be a choice of 4 out of seven candidates but we still have to lynch right every time.
If we hit the last cyborg with a conversion the mutants can still convert and we might end up 4 v 6 with 2 NKs. That means even if we hit scum tomorrow we can't finish off a team and we would be 3 v 4, or 4 v 3 if we lynch wrong.

Very worst case scenario is that you are completely wrong, none of your top three candidates are scum and we lynch a townie, which I'm not sure we can recover from today.

Also, killing a cyborg today lets the mutants know who they are. Say you are right, we lynch Hyper or Bookwyrm and they flip cyborg, it's highly likely they are buddies so the mutant's chances of successfully converting increase.

So excuse me if I'm not 100% on the everyone shut up and blindly vote whoever mchack says plan.
We need to hit that mutant today, which means thinking and talking about who Hunter's buddy is most likely to be.
And forgive me, but I think Sage was a distinct possibility, so knowing if we can rule gogtrial out because they are a mason would really help, otherwise we might blightly protect the very player we need to kill.

There are only four of you who can possibly be masons at this point, deny it all you want but Bookwyrm is right. I think knowing whether gogtrial is or isn't helps a lot with deciding who Hunter's partner was. And killing Hunter's partner helps a lot with winning this game.

I'm sure some of you will vote me or call me scummy for saying it but that's how I see it at the moment. Just hitting scum is great, but it may not be enough to win this.

Nice to see a question answered before I even asked it. (Sorry for the slowness of my catching up; there's a lot of RL interruptions here.)

Going back to (lack of) interaction with Hunter, and likely scenarios for why Hunter was the recruiting party, I certainly believe I can assign probable scum teams to my reads. That's not to say the reads themselves are correct, of course, but I'm both slowly getting more confident, and believe in wisdom of the crowds for things like this. (More than I believe in all of us blindly following your reads.)

My vote will come when I'm good and ready. We're not in any rush yet, and mislynching today, given the current game state, could prove rather painful.