When your best "logical contribution" seems to be calling things "horrible" without any real explanation, it doesn't say much to your judgement.

It's pretty simple, all it would have taken is a well-placed, "I don't want to lose to scum again this way" or a "I'd rather lose to good play than scum replacement" to secure that lynch. There is nothing a Vanilla Town JMich could possibly have said to combat that.

The fact that you don't seem to want to acknowledge this on any level, or even that the disappearances of both Hunter and Gamma made them appear rather scummy and sadly justified their wagons, says volumes about your contributions so far...

riiiiiight

*shakes head*

okay then

vote RWarehall

in a sample size of 2 we're 2/2 so OMG IT MUST ALWAYS BE THAT

is horrible logic

or even if you want to go 3/3, whatever

ridiculous

I shouldn't have to elaborate on why a 1 or 2 line simple logic statement, when I say it is "horrible reasoning" is horrible, it's pretty evident, I think

your continuing on to say there's nothing JMich could have said to prevent his lynch, it again, blatantly on-the-surface-ridiculously horrible reasoning, and I shouldn't need to elaborate

your criticism of my contributions in regards to hunter and gamma are almost as equally horrible

I WAS RIGHT ABOUT THEM, I WAS PROBABLY RIGHT IN WHAT I SAID IN THE REASONING AS TO WHY I WAS RIGHT ABOUT THEM!!! there wasn't anything more to say, I said it once or twice, adalia pushed me towards the end, I re-stated my view

and yet it's my fault I didn't contribute better to not allow them to get lynched? YEAAAAHHHHHH

you can choke on a rope, RW

As ironic as it seems, "I'd rather not lose to drealmer" given his attitude this game.

Vote Drealmer

I'm not changing my vote. I still think we will lose. There are 4 candidates for his partner. There are 2 chances to win. You are almost obligated to vote me out on the grounds I'm his partner and playing some WIFOM, meaning 1 in 4 chance to win with the other vote.

And if you lynch me first, when I flip town, you pretty much have to vote Drealmer next. Back to the same 1 in 4. Good luck! I just don't see anything to really better differentiate his partner (GoG, Trent, Lift, or Adalia)...

As far as I can tell from D1, gogtrial34987 was seen town or at least leaning town by most, if not everyone. Did they really need to set themselves up to gain town cred at the end of D1? And seeing how their contribution at the end of D1 was met, do you think they thought that as a good move to gain town cred if scum? Considering scum have 24/7 chat, and they could/would be guided and advised out of anything that could raise eyebrows?

Making this argument now, and that "I don't like it" of yours can equally be read as an attempt from you to gain town cred by joining those that already made comments on gogtrial34987's posts at D1 end.



It would be optimal play if we had no replacement, and one bringing JMich of all people into the game; I've lost count of how many times I've read in scum chat, post game, how they feared his late game when town, and always placed him among their N1 NK targets, following through with it more often than not.

You raise my eyebrow, more than a bit, with how you downplay the fact that GammaEmerals was replaced by JMich, and try to argue that it doesn't really matter who the player occupying the "known scum suspect" spot is. The fact that you insist on speaking of GammaEmerald being the N1 Nk doesn't help things in your favour either; it was not GammaEmerald that got NK-ed, it was JMich.

Even if we go with your "optimal play fro scum", who would that towniest player that gives us the least info be for scum to prefer them over JMich on N1?


It felt too easy to have caught scum on D1 with Hunter65536, but it's not as easy of an explanation/argument that gogtrial34987 acted the way they did to look less scummy, so your feeling about them is tempered but only silightly...


And you said nothing about your doubts and suspicions at the time because...? The thread was open even after lynch, and you even interacted with gogtrial34987 directly, after they made their comments and before they placed their vote. This, and the rest you've said today, makes me think you (kind of) piggybacked on my comment about gogtrial34987's posts.


[emphasis added]

Really? It's enough to just get a little bit warmer? Because, we most certainly will push through on our last chance at LyLo on D3, right? And you get on drealmer7's case for suggesting that any lynch but his own will do?


More to follow.

And how exactly does this help town to figure out who the actual scum are? Do I need to remind you that we're facing LyLo on D3 if we mislynch Today?

I could read a certain tactic in what you are doing, if you're town. But honestly I don't think it's actually working on any of the scum, quite the opposite I'd say. And seeing your later posts, I sadly see that's what's happening. Though I admit it was just a thought, and don't quite believe you are doing what I thought you might be.


Could you explain why you put these players together?


Is gogtrial34987on your lynch list because of what they said at the end of D1?


If RWarehall's scum, it would help if you retained your calm, and worked with the rest of us towards his lynch. I know you are probably going to take this the wrong way, but if you are town, don't alienate yourself from the rest of town.



I'd like to hear more about his "obv-scum-hunting once that was pointed out" you mentioned at the end of D1.


I did, once I went over the possible N1 NK targets after Hunter65536's flip, and for all the reasons I mentioned. I wish I had done it earlier, as then I'd probably have gone with GammaEmerald's lynch and deprive scum from the (easy) option to NK JMich. Though thinking about this now, I can see scum to just have NK-ed Hunter65536 if RWarehall is town.

You may have kept pushing, but you, and everyone else, would have to keep in mind that JMich is not GammaEmerald, nor could he have been made (directly) responsible for the latter's actions, and you would have to listen him out, at the very least. I stand by my position - mislynching JMich would not have been "easy as pie" as RWarehall claims.

My plan was to question him about a series of things, and decide based on his reaction and way of addressing things; people like to say that JMich is inscrutable/unreadable, but that's not actually 100% accurate - he has a few tells as scum, and a few as town.

Anyway, that's all moot now. Back to the players still in the game.

And another one bafflied by the N1 NK choice, and claiming that it'd be easy as pie to mislynch JMich. You must all have been playing with another JMich than the one I have.

It's also interesting that you base your arguments on... statistics, downplaying the level of player JMich is and completely disregarding that the game is dynamic and interactions do influence people's stances.

You sure are right about one thing though - I sure don't want to lose to scum again this way, you know, the way where scum manipulate town in their favour, succeeding to get enough town votes to mislynch their fellow townies.


Really? When you had ample time to make it clear that you preferred the GammaEmerald lynch over Hunter65536's one, all you said was this.


It's not ironic, it's anti-town if not outright scummy. This is D2, one Day before LyLo, there's no room for this sort of votes if you don't actually think him scum.


Interesting, if memory serves right you were fairly town-reading all of those. Does anything besides the grid make them suspect?

@Hyper
JMich is a good player. There is no doubt about that, but recovering from Gamma's day 1 would take more than just a bit of effort from a decent player.
Maybe we wouldn't have lynched him today, but he would always have been a question mark. Scum would have known that.

But maybe he was killed because it's JMich. So who would fear JMich that much? gogtrial? Not likely, I don't think gogtrial has seen JMich play enough to think him dangerous. drealmer? Possibly, but I don't really see drealmer fearing anyone that much either. Me, I personally wouldn't have put JMich's skills above the position Gamma had left him in (plus I'm town). So that leaves you, trent, RWarehall or Lift whose response to JMich may have been to remove him instantly.

As for who is towniest... you really think I would answer that one? There are at least two players that last night I would have considered townie enough to NK, possibly four if you remove the questions marks over some of there heads. Any of them seem on the face of it like a better choice for NK.

As for gogtrial, sure, he could have done it too get town cred, but why would he have killed Gamma then? Double bluff? I suppose it could have been an attempt to seem townie by removing his target for yesterdays lynch, but that seems a particularly convoluted logic.

Well I did say that I wasn't keen on gogtrial's post at the time. As for the doubts about Hunter, they mostly arose after RWarehall hammered... by which point it was far too late. And saying that I suddenly thought Hunter was town after being instrumental in his lynch would have looked like scum trying to seem townie (particularly as he did flip town).

You know my stance. The smaller the playing field the easier the decision.
My problem with drealmer isn't the lynch anyone stance (that's actually the towniest thing I think I've ever heard him say), it's the fact that it seems inconsistent with his usual approach that worries me.

Anyway, here's the Matrix.

Now you also need to remember that if you are town, you can also ignore your own row.
For example I know Hyper can only be scum if one of RWarehall or Lift is his buddy. Hyper and RWarehall seems an unlikely pairing at the moment, though it is possible their butting heads is entirely down to distancing.
I also don't think it overly likely that both Hyper and Lift are scum, so I can rule Hyper out 95% I would say.

With Hyper also out of the running the options are further reduced. RWarehall can only be scum with drealmer or gogtrial. I don't seem him as a pair with drealmer so there is only one option for him to be scum.
Lift can only be scum with trent, gogtrial or drealmer. But I can't really see Lift being scum, he has fooled me badly before but I find him fairly townie.

Which leaves trent, gogtrial and drealmer, with possibly RWarehall if gogtrial is the other scum.
Honestly I can see any combination of those three being scum, but drealmer is the stand out candidate.

Obviously that's only from my point of view and if you assume that Hyper and Lift are town (which I have to say I'm not 100% sure of), but you get the gist of how useful the matrix is.

So I say we either lynch drealmer or try and figure out which lynch is going to narrow the matrix down in the most useful way for tomorrow.

Sorry I've been out all day, been playing a new game called Styx: Shards of Darkness. If anyone here is a fan of true stealth games I can highly recommend this one, one of the best stealth games I've played.

@Hyper, No I am not trying to gain town cred. When Hunter flipped town the first thing that stuck out to me was how Gogtrial went about his bid to save Hunter. He did it at the last moment when there was no real chance of it happening, making it a safe play to look like a concerned townie unsure about lynching someone. I've utilized the same ploy in the past as scum, best way to survive is to make it look like you only have towns best interest in mind if you are scum.


1. If you were pretty conflicted why did you wait until there was just a little over two hours left before deadline to say anything about it? And even when you said that you had a strong town read on him early on you listed him as the top possible scum team with gamma. Why would you even list him as a top choice of possible scum if you were conflicted and had a strong town read on him?

2. Someone losing their cool can happen to a town or scum player, it has nothing to do with alignment. It has all to do with how people handle pressure. I only point this out because it would be a bad habit to form thinking someone might be town because they lost their cool.

3. We are on a forum with a wide variety of time zones represented, it is odd to find more than 4 people on at one time. If you you want everyone to have plenty of time to do a careful reread and weighing of options 2 hours is not near enough time. It would require at least half a day if not longer. Trying to push a change in two hours is a scummy play.


1. I agree about Hyper, of everyone playing I find him to be the strongest possible town player we have.

2 & 3. I would put everyone else in the pool as possible scum at this point, and that includes you. I know my play has been less than stellar this game for town so I'm not surprised I keep appearing on people's choice for possible scum, and other than Hyper I don't see anyone else as having a stellar game. Is there a reason you are tying to limit the focus onto only 3 or 4 people?

I'm not trying to limit the focus (certainly not for anyone else) I'm just trying to look at the most logical options. The matrix really helps us to cut down the possible options for scum, particularly if you have any players you believe are strongly town as you can practically eliminate them too.
I don't expect anyone else to use my reduction of the matrix, I expect everyone else to do their own based on their view of other players.

The down side is if we are wrong about a player, but I think if the scum team is Hyper and Lift then we've probably lost anyway. RWarehall does give me concerns, but looking at the Matrix the chances of him being scum are quite small so I'm reasonably happy to go with my original gut instinct yesterday that he is town.

We have no power roles, no claims to judge or results to work with so utilising the matrix is our best bet to reduce the possible list of scum candidates and increase our chances of hitting correctly.

Will we hit scum today? Maybe. Maybe not.
Let's say we don't. Say we lynch drealmer today and he does flip town. Then maybe Hyper gets NK'd.
That leaves me, you, Lift, RWarehall and gogtrial.

For me that leaves a very clear option of who to lynch (gogtrial first as you and RWarehall couldn't be a team so he should be guaranteed scum in that case) and there should be enough evidence to find the last scum player.

Alternatively we do hit scum today and it should be pretty easy to figure out who the last scum is before it's too late.

can I say it? that matrix usefulness analysis is HORRIBLE! AHAH! and you're just going off on it to try and look helpful seems more likely to me

the matrix is really not that useful at all until we get a scum

you using it now to assess the odds of any singular person being scum right now is totally wrong, like...wtf?!

"looking at the matrix, RW is likely town"...seriously...is this real life?

Well... scum would say that. Just like how you didn't want to share it until today (when we would have lost at least one and possibly two players picks).

Funny how literally everyone else in the game can see how useful the matrix could be for us.

it's posts like that that really make me think you're not reading my posts, but hey, you're just convinced! I felt like a few people were convinced yesterday too and yet, couldn't get my wagon through because sensible brains were in the majority. Ohhey, maybe that is why JMich was killed, because he was less likely to vote me (cause he smrt) and scum knew it'd be easier to get my ML without his distraction about being a replacement as well (and knew his lynch would be harder to get, which is why RW pushing otherwise pings me)

hmmm, RW+adalia, is that in the chart?! CHECK THE CHART!

I skimmed through the new posts, and will re-read and get to them, just wanted to address this first.


That's not what he said, or at least not how I read it. And the way I read it, he has a point.

The way I understand the random rolling of scum roles, each one of us had the same odds to land the first scum spot. I said this on D1, and nobody disputed it, nor made an argument to point out the flaw in my thinking.

So, the value of the grid is two-fold:
1. While scum-hunting, who can't be scum with whom must be taken into account when trying to pair people.
2. After we find our first scum, it narrows down the field of players we need to look in for the second one.

With two town flips so far, everybody is still very much on the table; we cannot use the grid to clear anyone but the dead, and the number of possible scum partners tells us nothing about finding our first scum.

So "I have doubts/concerns about player A for doing this and that, but I'm going to disregard them, because the grid says they have only a couple of possible scum partners, so they must be town" is a dangerous path to take to scum-hunt at this stage. If one is town, that is. If they are scum, it's an excellent tactic to sway others to look into the direction they want, and lead us to a mislynch.

The question for me is - from which camp are you operating?