@Everyone voting for yogsloth.
If yogsloth is town, what is his agenda?

Absolutely serious. And it's not that meaty unless you refer to the one-sided rap battle (again, good stuff there, I especially liked the part where the actual vote was part of the rhyme). The reasoning wasn't based on anything new that happened after the original vote. That's why I'm curious why you unvoted just to re-vote for basically the same reason.

It's like this.

Imagine you're caulking the bathtub, and your lady walks in, and tells you you're doing it all wrong. You know she doesn't know what she's talking about, you explain to her what you're doing and why, even though you know she doesn't know caulk from toothpaste, but she keeps giving you shit about it. You both get heated, words get said, and finally you just throw your hands up and say FINE I'll caulk it your damn way, even though you know that shit's gonna leak by the summer. She walks away, and you keep caulking, half-assing it a bit...

... and ten minutes later she walks in and tells you you missed a spot.

As I've already said if he's scum he is trying to open up the conversation about roles. It seems once roles start being discussed the floodgates open and next thing you know someone else reveals they have one or drops a hint that they do. Pretty safe bet he will not be lynched today because of the doubt there will be on whether he has a power role or not. This would make it so he has to be investigated to prove his innocence, so he would have to either have the capability of redirecting or be read as town.

If he's town he is trying to throw himself out there to see who pushes for his lynch and for what reasons so if he's lynched we have a basis to find scum. I would guess he has a role that is able to cause damage to scum if they visit at night or he is a vanilla sacrificing himself and has no role wanting scum to kill a vanilla instead of a power role.

I'm sure there's many possibilities I am missing, but that's what I see as the most likely for either side.

@krypsyn I'm missing a possibility? I guess he could be neutral. I find it unlikely though since generally as neutral you try to draw as little attention to yourself as possible.

@dedo watching and waiting for slips, mistakes, strange behaviour...etc.

I'm going to sleep now, hopefully have time to post tomorrow morning before work.

Nope

Scum = wins if town loses
Town = wins if town wins

All possibilities are accounted for (everything else is semantics), although they may not be totally mutually exclusive in all cases.

Egads, now I know how Hijack feels. Um...will try to catch up here.

RL went ok. Small blessings.

Fast typing. Hopefully no edit elves.

As to the first point, as Krypsyn notes, he could be non-town. Though CSP isn't here to point out the implications of that. ;) And I am absolutely not going to be the one to say it. But I find it unlikely anyway.

As to the second, while I get the theory, I don't really buy the practice. While "scum" could do that, the reality is the game is made up of players who each have their own interests and personalities and time commitments. So looking at it this way, which players would bother doing that research? Maybe I'm wrong, but the only players I can see investing that kind of time are yogs (who needn't bother), Wyrm (who did it), and maybe adalia. Let's be real - Hijack has things to see and people to do.

In the same fashion, if the game could even potentially be cracked in scum's favor by a few hours of statistical analysis, how many players are going to bother in that scenario? And agent doesn't count since he's modding.

Just hypothetically, everyone who would have done this research IF they were scum, would you please raise your hand?

Anyway, yogs defused it. I read it as "eager townie" more than scummy, so I'm not really that inclined to spend more time on wyrm's post for now, and it's helpful to the extent that it will be easier to double-check if/when he does claim.

It also occurred to me (while driving down the interstate and tuning out my dad) that if your hunch was right, scum may have had a theory anyway without doing any of that work. No point in having a coroner if there's no janitor and then follow that line of thought around. By the same token, if they don't have a janitor, they'll probably assume he's not a coronor, unless they're going to guess that there's a neutral SK/janitor team out there.

Which is a cool idea, actually. Imagine Vitek's game replayed where town has no idea that Dedo flipped scum firefighter. It's pretty much on par with yogs' game where the demon vig had his own orc cleric companion to resurrect him at the end, right?

Past Krypsyn raises his hand.
Present Krypsyn roles his eyes and mocks him.
Future Krypsyn is busy driving his new flying car and skating on his hover-board.

Years ago, I would do this sort of thing. It would take me hours and hours scouring posts, but I would end up with a point-by-point analysis. It was pro-town, so it helped me hide in plain sight as scum, but it was also a fairly good tool to organize my thoughts as town. The main trouble is that it got so people would expect these type of huge analysis posts every time I played (just like people expect You-tube links and 'Heh' currently). Burned me out horribly.

Uhhh...I know you live on a farm and all, but...at least be careful of the claws.

Oh, I thought I said "anyone." That's what I had in my brain anyway. Did I type anything? Too lazy to look and not sure it matters. Agree, Krypsyn's vote was potentially worth discussing, though I wouldn't have held my breath on him revealing. Kind of surprised he's been more sharing in the last 12 hours or so. Presumed he'd just leave us all guessing. /shrug

1) Yeah, in the signup thread i said something like "If I play I'm voting for Hijack." Too lazy to go link. Having declared it in advance, it turned out to not be much fun as my RVS vote. Not doing that again.
2) Most people like RVS to the extent it's a chance to make ridiculous votes. I enjoy it as a chance to say ridiculous things. Especially since my RVS vote sucked. Made me laugh, anyway. And laughter is good for the soul, or something.

I did chuckle, but you do know RVS is over, right? Is this a serious vote, and if so, care to elaborate? Y'know, at all?

I'm leery of that theory. Admittedly, I do think yogs' play was somewhat off the cuff, but probably not completely without having considered the ramifications. He had my vote already, and had to know PM talk would draw Trent at least if not more. If the play involves a lie and it comes out, it draws at least JMich and anyone else who's not afraid to invoke LAL. And that's aside from his seeming awareness that he might get some grudge votes.

If he's town, he was probably willing to risk lynch, but I doubt he was going to put himself in a position of inviting it with open arms. If he's scum, then sure, all bets are off. Though having thought through your question, this is probably the best argument that he's not scum unless he happens to be 'scum vanilla' or 'scum coroner' or perhaps something uber like his Gallows role.

Neutral something something so Krypsyn won't threaten me with geometry.

TBC

Agreed.]

Thanks for that.

-On the resurrection point, does anyone who knows why dedo was held out of dead thread last game want to explain, or is there a link to where it was discussed? Not relevant for this game, just curious.
-On the 'more killable' point, that is...interesting. Will have to think about it before I start just throwing ideas out (I'm a veteran now!), but I can see at least the possibility for weird dynamics falling out of what that seems to say.


I have two setup ideas for addressing this in future games, though one is...inching into bastard modding and requires a fairly specific setup, and the other I'm not entirely sure will work. Magic!


Sigh, long response to yogs got dropped in cut/paste. Will tie it in to response to krypysn.

Haven't we establish that I can go for long stretches saying nothing of value even as town cop?

Though I guess for D1 your theory is no worse than anything else. but it would make for lousy wagon analysis. Mostly I'm not sure why you were looking for me to say something deep and meaningful in the first 25 posts.

Also, clearly you don't remember having played with me before. Don't you remember game 28 where I started day 2 by talking everyone on to Trent's wagon because I had this awesome water-tight theory, and then proceeded to try and talk everyone off Trent's wagon when I started to find the holes? Normally I do my hole-poking as I go.

That's not a water sports joke.

I think the only times I've staunchly advocated for a specific lynch while playing where either when I had cop info (RW), or anytime CSP was in the game (I always think he's guilty), or the latter half of game 29 when town was already deep in the shit and I went full-savior mode, as the alternative seemed to be a nihilistic FTSIQ.


Wait, you aren't concerned about yogs' play, but you'll vote adalia for a clear joke? (IIRC he's also referencing a prior game)

That's the first thing you've done that actually reads wrong to me. Distancing from adalia? Buddying to yogs? Or perhaps doing what wyrm did in #29 and establishing why you won't get on a wagon (yogs in this case) you think is going to run anyway. Speculative, admittedly.

Dammit, how'd this fence get in my ass again?

I have been enjoying the music though. That's my excuse for letting it slide. Too busy tapping toes! Though brain has already started shutting off.

Sigh, already wrote this once when I was more awake. Last post I swear. Hopefully coherent.

Response to both you and Kryp's question about what your gambit is if you're scum. I may be twisting his words since I'm not looking at the page, but i think that was the gist.

I confess I've had to skim a lot catching up, and don't really want to get into the nitpicky back and forth of whether Flub's being clear or consistent in his reasoning, though I agree it's worth watching in regards to him, but at least for now, I'm still on you and am more inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt over you if it's a binary choice.

The trouble with your play is that something that's not scummy from someone else (because it makes no sense) can be scummy from you. Why? Because you have shown you can spin an unconventional play into gold. Even here you're talking about how you're already re-calibrating your meta. I enjoy playing, and can be OCD about checking and posting (too much, I know), but you throw yourself at this full bore. And I say that with some respect.

I thought about changing my meta while taking time off to observe, and despite two months of "planning" apparently can't do it. I just kind of throw myself in and react to shit. I play how I play. Which yes, makes me gullible at times, and wrong a lot. But you have talent and a plan.

How does your play in this game make sense as scum? I can see a couple ways. As one, I'm reminded of game #28 where, with the role you had, you outright begged to be investigated, or hoped you already had. And had I bit, even being pretty sure you were scum, I would have only "proved" that you weren't.

I picked those two links at random so I could get to bed, but there were literally like 10-15 of them to choose from. You laid it on pretty thick, which I noted even at the time.

There was seemingly no N0 in this game, but day chat at least possible. Perhaps you know scum team is godfather(you)/goonx3. That might lead you to assume town probably doesn't have much beyond a cop/doctor/tracker. Tracker's no threat because you just don't make the kill tonight, and you read clean to the cop. And you've already given yourself cover against Vanilla cop if there's one of those too.

With luck, it's game 28 all over again for you. Now, is all that likely? As a statistical matter, probably not. But if those, or equally advantageous opportunity presented, you would so totally do exactly this.

And even if all those pieces don't come together, scum-you might view the field and see that you've got those potential grudge votes so you might as well throw caution to the wind and get them out of the way D1. For a number of reasons. Easier to shift out of, potentially, and if you're worried you're going to go down early, may as well do it before leaving traces of who you're tied to.

Now, if we were using double-blind reads to look at plays, then sure, I'd agree that the play you made coming instead from <unnamed player> I'd tend to read as a joke and there are a few other things I'd be much more inclined to vote. But you have my respect and wariness because this is exactly something you'd do.

But maybe that's just me.

Randomly voting is worse than No Lynch for me; not just anti-town, but overtly scummy. Joke or not, he brought it up. Even jokes can give an insight into a player's thought process.