Really can't argue with that - like I said yesterday I was hideously surprised that, for all the reasons people were voting on me this one took so damn long to come up as it was the most legit - and that was BEFORE krypsyn went down as scum.

If you're town (you're one of the people I have a "better" feeling about) be careful though as it seems like we're at a premium. I really suspect there could be A TON of scum. And I really think figuring out the deal with "Mafia Jailer" flips (whether they're true or not) very quickly is the way to crack the game.

Easy enough answer. Speculation, but fits at least part of the data. What if trent could only modify flips to Town Vanilla? Eh? Makes more sense now? Granted this is not what my analysis pointed out, he had his entire claim set for him to make the wagon look bad. And 2 of the flips where he hammered turned down Town Vanilla. Maybe there's actually something about these hammers after all.

Nothing incriminatory.

Howza bout exculpatory or even inculpatory??

Being able to only produce Town Vanilla seems totally legit. It actually makes a whole lot of sense given how hard Yog tried to used the slightest use of the term to build his defense and blacken others. Anyway, I'm not disputing the actual role. What intrigues me more is the character name (claimed vs flipped).

And yes, hammering feels like the engine behind this. Trent was way too fast to hammer himself and I know him good enough to know that a non-scum Trent would never do such a thing. He'd nag until the very end that he is town and we are making a mistake rather than do such a thing. My money is on he wanted to hide whatever he was.



I'm afraid that may actually be the case and if drealmer's "crazy" theories are even tiny bit close to what is going on things are starting to look real grim...

I think I'm going to do a full claim soon, or at least let everyone know what I do at night (which pretty much tells you what role I am, but at this point more info = better odds of speculating correctly)

Gonna wait for classes to end though.

LOL that's the craziest part - I think right now, the people I'm most certain are actually dead scum, flipped vanilla town. Before that I was dead set that mafia jailer was also pretty clear but the fact that 3 out of 4 of the last reveals have been that makes me worried as well.

Question for anyone more familiar with roles and such than I - is there an accepted sort of "framework" for mucking up a flipped role? Or do I just have to come to grips with the fact that by pure coincidence 75% of the last flips have been mafia jailer?

Hey, more thoughts from me! I am really just trying to put out the ideas that seem like they could be possible. As Ix asked, what do we have to go on? I think the main thing we have to go on is multiple scum teams seems likely. With that, breaking it down into possibilities.

There's no hard evidence to base it on at all, but with my thoughts I'm going to assume JMich and HSL were town because I think most of the other people who have died have been scum and so odds just reason out to me to mean that some town must have died, and it was probably them. Maybe P1na? Maybe trent? What do people think about those possibilities at this point? If trent happened to be town, do you think he could have had a role that messed with flips but then of course would have had to be lying about his claim? Which isn't town as I understand it, though, I can understand doing it to try and not draw a NK too early I suppose if you feel vulnerable, but, yeah, I don't know. I don't find that likely to be case with trent, I'm more asking if others think it is possible and trying to remain open to all possibilities myself at this point.

Just to be clear, at this point I think it is probably most likely trent was neutral GF that knew the list of teams and could somehow mess with flips.

I'm sure there are other probabilities I'm not even seeing too, of course, would love to hear them from others!

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2 scum teams -

8x4x4 or 7x1x4x4 (neutral godfather scenario w/ 2 scum teams.) Both of these I find less likely to be possible than other options I list because that just seems like it is making the scum teams way too strong vs. town, too much organization vs. non-organization. Another reason I don't find these as likely are because I do think it is more likely true than not that the mafia jailers were mafia jailers, either 2 on each team however many teams, or 1. Another, reason I find 2 scum teams less likely is because of how contentious so many people have been vs. so many people. It seems like there isn't THAT much alliance out there, except, it is possible that people are charading their contentions. 2 scum teams should not be ruled out as completely impossible. In this scenario I would find it likely town would have to have a good power role (maybe a cop, I don't have anything that specifically makes me think there is one, just it is possible, so, yeah, that bears considering always. I like to trust that if there is one, they will divulge what they can when they can without making themselves vulnerable too much, etc., and don't think it is something to worry about too much, gotta trust in the person with the role I suppose.)


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3 scum teams -

7x3x3x3 or 6x1x3x3x3. These seem like a disadvantage to town a lot, but am not ruling it out. Especially now with the 3 mafia jailer flips, which whether they are actually mafia jailers or not, I do believe are at least mafia, and possibly just flipped that way because it is a "protector" type role simply by default because they are underlings of a neutral godfather deflects kills to people on scum teams, it could just be a function of that, but I'd like people with more experience to share their thoughts about how all of that could more likely work.

breaking it down, assuming jailer flips are true:

P1na + adaliabooks + Leonard03 - ouch, sucks for them, I think maybe the trent alliance that was possible visible here was due to him knowing who scum is and trying to not let them get killed?

who + who + yogsloth

who + who + krypsyn

that means 4 more mafia still alive at most. If we assume JMich and HSL were town and trentonlf was neutral GF (no certainty there either, of course, just with odds of the game I think for HSL and JMich to be town, errr, did I say that already? I have lots of notes and sometimes the relevancy of things overlaps) that makes it 4v2v2 at this point.

If that is it, this is how I'm breaking it down:

HijacK, bler, dedoporno, cristigale are all leaning more townie to me,but, one of those is scum if there are 4 town left. If I go ahead with that in mind that gives me some questions + that I think are good and I find this to be a likely scenario (maybe 2nd to the one below, but maybe more likely? not sure):

Yogsloth and flubbucket: was that contention real or faked? I think it was real, and that they are on opposite scum teams most likely.

Bookwyrm vs. Ix. That seems like genuine contention and opposition. So they are on opposite teams.

I would then think maybe that Ix is one of the other 2 with yogs, and bookwyrm, flubbucket, and krypsyn are all a team. Who would be then with yogs? I would say cristigale is most likely, and mayyybe HijacK if he is fooling us good, but, again, I've been leaning away from him as scum more.

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4 scum teams -

8v2v2v2v2 or or 7v1v2v2v2v2 4v3v3v3v3 - the 4-player on town scenario I find highly unlikely and very scary to be true if it is. The 7-players on town, 1 neutral godfather, 4 scum teams of 2 each I find to be the most likely scenario (or like I said, maybe it is the 3 teams above?) we have going on here. So I'm going to pontificate on that one a bit too.

Going to break down teams of 2 as I see them possible but also provide reasons why it might not be true.

P1na + adaliabooks - but then no jailer here? could be because it was messed with by trent?

P1na + leonard03 - is also possible? BUT, If P1na was town and the flip was messed:

adaliabooks + leonard - as much as it seemed adalia was P1na's scum-buddy, maybe not. then:

______ + yogsloth - Teammate + dead jailer? I think most likely Ix is scum-buddy here?

______ + krypsyn - teammate + dead jailer? I think most likely bookwyrm is scum-buddy here

______ + _______ - still in-tact team of 2 alive.

If we go with P1na being town I think the most likely in-tact 2-man team would be:

flubbucket + hard for me to say, really, but with the players left and who I think is with kryps and yogs, the case then in order of who I find possible to be with flubbucket becomes: HijacK, cristigale, dedoporno, then least likely bler.

Those numbers leave it at 4v1v1v2, and at that town is looking pretty good. As you noticed I'm back and forth actually on which I think is more likely to be, this scenario or the three 3-player scum teams or four 2-player teams.

If the 3 aren't actually jailers, then again the idea is maybe they are just flipping that because the neutral bulletproof godfather got targeted at night, and so it bounced off and hit them and somehow made them flip that? I think that is less likely possible than them actually being jailers, but, want to know what more experienced people think about all of that!!!!!

Also, If trentonlf was the neutral godfather and we got him lynched and he was messing with flips, then krypsyn being mafia jailer was most likely true because it came after trent was dead? Is that a logical though? and to me that makes the other mafia jailer flips also likely to be true? This is the theory that goes with everything that I think is most likely as well. Though, I do account for the possibility that we were wrong about trent, that he was town, and that a bunch of scum ganged up on him and were able to kill him and neutral godfather is still alive. I also find it possible that if trentonlf was neutral godfather then he knew the scum teams somehow, but they don't know that he was GF? Just a guess but I think it would have to work that way otherwise it would be too powerful a setup for scum/the godfather.

Look forward to hearing what everyone else has to say!

Neutral godfather is as likely as neutral town. What is a neutral town??

The godfather role is a mafia role.

Godfather is investigated as town, so what would be the purpose of being neutral??

Neutral is investigated as town, so what would be the purpose of being a godfather??

Okay, when I read "anti-town" on the godfather icon on the wiki I took that to me that he isn't necessarily scum aligned and was just thinking maybe that is possible here? with the bulletproof aspect I thought it seemed unfair for him to be on an individual team, but, not ruling it out.

So, are you saying that you think there is possibly 1 godfather on a team with other teams not having him aligned with them? How does that work? Just put him as 1 of the groups of 3 in the three 3-scum-team scenario or in 1 of the groups of four 2-man teams? If any of those are even right of course? Would that mean that essentially the teams that don't have the GF are wanting to kill him and have no sort of obedience to him even though he is "The Godfather"? That would also make the jailer flips more likely to be true then I think right? because it wouldn't be a "defending him" flip mechanic unless they are on his team+have reason to defend him. Or, yeah, not sure how that would all work, really, that is why I'm looking for input from more experienced ppl with this sort of stuff. It's way convoluted regardless of how it REALLY is, I think. Maybe it more simple than I'm making it to be and I'm still suffering from space madness from the last game?!?!? EEEP!

Anwyay,

If trentonlf is scum-aligned and on one of the teams, if he was GF or not, it simply changes my scenarios a little. Regardless, it is probably good to have the possibilities worked out with him as scum-aligned either way. SO:

7v3v3v3 - scum teams are maybe it's 5v2v1:

pretty similar to what I said before I suppose:

adaliabooks + leonard03 + trentonlf?

______ + ______ + yogsloth - again, Ix + who? P1na?

______ + _______ + krypsyn - again, maybe bookwyrm and then mayyybe flubbucket here?

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If 8v2v2v2v2 is maybe we are at 6v1v1 right? :

P1na + leonard03 and then trentonlf + adaliabooks

OR

P1na + trentonlf and then adaliabooks + leonard03

maybe another combo, but regardless, with those, then we go to again:

______ + yogsloth - Ix here most likely?

______ + krypsyn - bookwyrm? or flubbucket is my 2nd, then down the list from there as I stated before others are going more town.

Okay, didn't realize it was that cut and dry. Does everyone else agree with this? Do you think we don't have a cop? I have no idea, though, if we did, I would think they'd be telling us more at this point, I suppose that is maybe what HijacK is possibly going to do? I also, as said before, find it possible either JMich and/or HSL had a power role for town, could have been cop? That seems really suckage for town if we lost them that fast though, isn't there something that allows for that to not be such a severe loss?
I think I answered this in a previous post but let me do it here too to be thorough + clear. I think there could at least be some beneficial town power roles, that is for sure. Whether or not a cop specifically, I have no idea, but I figure, why not? Especially in this setup. Especially if there are as many mafia out there from the start as it is looking to me. I would think town would have to have some sort of power role, if not multiple of varying degrees. That is one of the reasons I thought yogsloth was a town power role and then believe this town jailer claim so readily, I really think town has to have at least a couple roles going for us, or, did at the beginning?

Good point. I also think that it is a possible mechanic that for NKs, if the killer for 1 team targets anyone who is jailed, the jailer could die even if they weren't the target? Which is maybe why yogs+kryps 2 nights in a row? I like this idea as a possibility.

I wasn't trying to pose a hard theory, don't make it seem like I was. More and more you do seem scummy to me, especially in previous days. You are my 2nd next to Ix, so, I can understand your contention with me, I suppose.
Anyway, I explained why I was thinking a GF role was neutral and not thinking it was on a scum-team, like you said, it seems a bit powerful for that doesn't it? Makes things imbalanced for the teams.

Uhhh, no, not what I said at all.
haha okay then you don't want to hear my MOST PARANOID theory that is for sure! it is probably just really crazy.

Thanks, that's so helpful! *sarcasm*
That is all fine and good, I look forward to hearing what you have if//whenever you do share it. Someone said it was bler? I thought maybe it was me, or dedoporno? I'd love to see the link of who/when it was first suggested, at least if you can show that, that would be helpful and you don't have to give your analysis on it to us, but allow us to also think about the idea, would be good.

@drealmer, you are making it so hard to quote you stuff, man!

I mostly agree with flub that a neutral godfather doesn't make much sense, since it is a mafia role by default. But let's say it's neutral for the sake of argument. Neutral bulletproof investigating as town person who redirects NKs and messes with flips? Really? I have played in some crazy and weird setups but doesn't this sound a bit too much, especially in a game where it seems that half the players are scum? And it's an anti-town role, too. We might as well call it a game and let the scum figure it out between themselves since that game is done for us. I could imagine a normal godfather, yes, but not with all these modifiers. Even some are making things quite unbalance let alone all of them. Speaking of balance, it again seems rather overpowered to be able to control both lynch and NK flips (they can even clean NKs!). I'm way more inclined to believe that the NK flipped scum are really what they flipped. If they are Leonard also seems quite likely. P1na less so, because so far he is the only one who is breaking the pattern of Town Vanilla vs Scum Jailer, but still more likely than adalia and trent.

What we know so far - the scum are likely to have Jailers (x3 so far), Thugs (x1 so far), Janitors (at least 1 so far). I refuse to believe one team had (has?!) more than 1 jailer because that will tip the balance over someone's favor way too much. It looks far more likely (and fair) for each team to have 1 jailer. The question is how are the other roles distributed. They are either mirrored (each team is exactly when it comes to roles/abilities and numbers) or the non-jailer roles may differ. This looks like another potential risk of breaking the balance depending on the roles, but maybe not so much - we'll know when the game is over.

The mirrored teams look like the most balanced and obvious option. That would mean that each team is made at least of 3 people - a thug, a jailer and a janitor. The thug is the equivalent of a vanilla townie, so they are not the janitor. The jailer shouldn't be able to jail one person and kill another on the same night, so they can't clean them up. Jailing by default will prevent the NK made by a buddy, so again no chance of cleaning. Unless it's a complex role that can do one or the other by choice (which is unlikely) the Janitor has to be a 3rd member.

So, 3 (or more) person teams that are likely to be the same. Most if not all jailers are gone. At least one thug is probably gone. Considering we had 2 cleaned NKs in a row followed by 2 visible in a row it may not be that far-fetched to assume that one or both of JMich/HSL were Janitors.

Of course, the last stuff may very well be wrong since we have reasons to believe there are 3+ teams yet we had single NKs for 4 nights. I again refuse to believe this is because the teams jailed the correct people each night always resulting in a single NK. With so much scum around it would seem far more likely that 1 NK is a hard limit and there is some mechanic on whose gets executed (the "more killable" modifier backs that up). Otherwise, with a bit of luck, Town may had lost the game on night 2 which is horse shit.

Back to the Godfather. The theory above doesn't have enough slots for a Godfather but let's say the Janitor is a complex role - a Godfather who can clean (also scramble flips by day). Cool. But what is the point of them being a Godfather if there won't be an investigation happening? None, right? That would mean we have some cop(s) snooping around. With that many scum we didn't get a single scum read so far? How come?!

3 3-members scum teams mean 53% chance to hit scum on N1. And we had 4 nights (that percentage lowers, but consequent tries make up for that more or less).

We are either the unluckiest people EVER or there is something else going on.

This is all speculation and theorycrafting, of course, but there isn't too much else I can say at this point.




Since when neutral investigate as town?!

Why am I hard to quote? sorry!

I agree with 3 jailers being most likely and 3 teams mirrored. And so with that, maybe no godfather at all?

Also, am I understanding correctly that you think a janitor made the non-flips of JMich and HSL? I suppose that is quite likely, wasn't thinking about each scum team having more than 1 power-role. I was just figuring each team had 1 jailer and that was powerful enough for them! I guess it just makes it more confusing for town to have non-flips, but with the other weird flip-shit going on, it seems like a bit much for the janitors to also exist + weird flips, SO, maybe as you said, there is a more complex role like a janitor that doesn't just have the ability to make a non-flip, but can also make false-flips happen somehow? Maybe that is what trentonlf was? Or, like you said, a godfather role that is more complex, which does implicate a cop role which I do think is likely, and as have said, am hoping they'd have been trying to give some guidance at this point.

THOUGH, it does seem like it could very well be 5v1v2 left alive, and that has town okay enough, so, maybe they are just letting it roll on because at least 2 scum have died at night, which is way helpful for town, and we've gotten at least probably a couple during the day is most likely I'd say?

If it is 4v1v1v2 that is a bit more neck and neck for town, but, I still feel pretty comfortable with my breakdown of what those teams would be and feel good about being on a forward motion towards getting rid of more, actually. I'm pretty sure at this point I'm comfortable with Ix, Bookwrym, or even flubbucket today.

I would say that if there is a team that still has 2 people or more on it alive that we should try and figure out who that is today and lynch 1 of them first and foremost so they can stop working together and make it either 4v1v1v1 or 5v1v1. The more we break up the teams, the better off.

Good thoughts, I like hearing other people's theories on possibilities for trying to figure this out! C'mon HijacK, look forward to reading you! others?!

I have to ask, because this is something I'm struggling with myself with bler and Bookwyrm (I guess three teams does answer some of it).

But why do you have krypsyn and myself on separate teams? Assuming I'm scum, I was voting in line with yog and krypsyn (or rather we were all voting together on X). I ask because I saw a voting block of trenton, Bookwyrm and bler (and leonard for a short time but obviously he died quickly and before that there wasn't much info to go on).

And yet, it made NO SENSE to me that Bookwyrm and bler were on the same team. Their play often mirrored each other (even down to jumping out at odd times to sort of "run interference" for trent yesterday - I think, in short order when trent was on the hook one mentioned no lynch and the other a mass claim).

Again, I assume three teams does fix some of my problem here a little bit, but I wouldn't mind you chiming in with why you think krypsyn and myself had to be on distinct teams? Is it to fit the three team theory, or is it something I'm missing that could help me with my own bler / Bookwyrm / trent problem?

Well first, you certainly don't HAVE to be on separate teams from krypsyn if you are scum, it could be just as well that bookwyrm and yogsloth are on the same team and you are on the team with krypsyn, I realize that and should have noted that in my breakdown. As long as you are opposed to bookwyrm in the teams setup, that satisfies my qualifications, as long as yogsloth and flubbucket (and flub only comes into play if it's 3 teams of 3) remain separate, and all jailers remain separate.

I think the key to understanding those wagons is understanding that krypsyn was perhaps taking advantage of knowing he had to get multiple scum teams working together (this is evidenced by he and yogsloth even saying "you vote my guy today, I vote yours tomorrow" and working together on the wagons in general) to get rid of scum that he was able to identify by behaviors or whatever else.

so yeah, to be clear, could also definitely be, similar to my one before with just Ix and Bookwyrm switched:

trent + adaliabooks + leonard03

P1na + bookwyrm + yogsloth

Ix + flubbucket + kryspyn

OR as before, whatever P1na+adaliabooks+trent+leonard03 combination you want to pick and then,

bookwyrm + yogsloth

Ix + krypsyn

If either Ix or bookwrym are not mafia in this 2-team scenario, then my next choice of course becomes flubbucket.

Ok, here and alive. Tired though. Did manage to sneak a peak from the Vegas airport - very interesting.

Mostly caught up but need to get the kid off to bed. Had some time to think on the plane and do have a few observations. Presumably can get to at least a few of them tonight.