Posted May 26, 2011
Cyjack: I don't think 3-4 million is particularly realistic. That would make it one of the, if not *the* greatest selling PC RPGs of all time, at least if that wonky list is to be taken at all seriously.
Nice to fantasize about that, but this game was never going to be that embraced by the mainstream public. It would need wide reaching casual appeal. Its a brilliant game, but it's just too quirky and challenging for those kind of numbers. Single player crpgs are a niche genre, and TW2 is a niche rpg. I think if the game does a third of that, CDPR would be ecstatic.
Now, throw in eventual console sales, and thats a different story maybe. Hope Im wrong.
chautemoc: If selling 1.7m copies of a game on a single platform means that game is "niche", everything that isn't Starcraft, COD, etc. is "niche." Nice to fantasize about that, but this game was never going to be that embraced by the mainstream public. It would need wide reaching casual appeal. Its a brilliant game, but it's just too quirky and challenging for those kind of numbers. Single player crpgs are a niche genre, and TW2 is a niche rpg. I think if the game does a third of that, CDPR would be ecstatic.
Now, throw in eventual console sales, and thats a different story maybe. Hope Im wrong.
But according to that list, the biggest CRPG seller is Diablo 2 at 4 mil (quibbling about its "RPG" credentials aside). Theres no way TW2 has Diablo 2 reach.
Next is DA:O , which the list indicates may be contaminated by console sales number, at 3.x mil.
And then theres a big droppoff, with storied games like BG1&2 , that have been selling for a decade now, and NWN only at 2 Mil. We've always known that CRPGs arent as big a seller as other genres.
Tw2 would have to be a runaway success...a phenomenon...to reach something like 4 mil PC sales. And based on how many people are already resistant to the challenge level, and the Mature content rather than the mass market friendly T rating, I don see any reasonable expectation of that happening. Not on the PC alone, but eventual console sales will be a different story.
But it certainly deserves that kind of success, and I hope Im wrong. I think it will be a very successful game regardless for CDPR, especially given the modest budget by triple A standards.
Post edited May 26, 2011 by Cyjack