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ZFR: everyone else <3
Aww, everyone else <3 you too!
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SirPrimalform: And when you placed that vote, you were so certain that nothing could possibly change that you didn't bother to return to the thread? What made you think Joe "knew" more than he should?
Usually I do like to push wagons and tend to be a bit "bouncy" with my votes.

But we had several players fairly close in vote count and we were deep in Phase 2. I'm willing to risk lynching a townie, because that's just what we do - especially day one. I'm not willing to accidentally risk lynching two townies because we can't make a decision and then have a night kill on top of that. So no, I was not about to start moving my vote.

On that note, before we do hit Phase Two

Vote HSL
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SirPrimalform: And when you placed that vote, you were so certain that nothing could possibly change that you didn't bother to return to the thread? What made you think Joe "knew" more than he should?
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Ixamyakxim: Usually I do like to push wagons and tend to be a bit "bouncy" with my votes.

But we had several players fairly close in vote count and we were deep in Phase 2. I'm willing to risk lynching a townie, because that's just what we do - especially day one. I'm not willing to accidentally risk lynching two townies because we can't make a decision and then have a night kill on top of that. So no, I was not about to start moving my vote.
That's a good reason for not moving your vote, but I was more curious about the fact you didn't even make another appearance in the thread until Day 2 (ok there's one more post shortly after the Joe vote, but then nothing between then and you showing back up today).
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bler144: The few people I might have suspected to be goofing more including myself all seem relatively serious for whatever reason(s).
Who?

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muddysneakers: That comment is mostly in regards to non answers from flub. But you have both answered now.
Kk, thanks for clarification.

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cristigale: @agent - is there a difference in meaning between your 'hrm' and your 'heh'?
Definitely. It's all in the intonation.

Seriously though, yes there's a difference.

"Heh" is simply "hey, look at that."

"Hrm" is "I don't like that much."
I really don't have the time to do this, lol, but I'm doing it anyways.

Consider my theorizing in post 176.

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agentcarr16: Lynching even with a lack of majority means that wagons are rather less informative than usual. Scum don't need to hop on a wagon in order to get someone lynched. They can hem and haw and point fingers without ever getting on the train. That way if the lynchee is scum, they can point out that they said so all along. And if the lynchee is town, they can claim they felt something was off and so didn't want to get on the wagon.

It's super easy for scum to drop their vote anywhere and sit on it. They know someone's going to die and they might even be lucky enough to be sitting where they help two people die.
So instead of looking at the wagon, let's look at everyone who didn't feel the need to get on the wagon.

So at the end of Day 1, the votecount was:

agent 2 - cristi (65), Town
ZFR 2 - SirP (122), muddy (160)
Town 6 - flubb (129), Ixam (156), bler (165), agent (178), ZFR (204), P1na (223)
P1na 2 - HSL (24), Town

At the end of the day, we had cristigale, SirPrimalform, muddysneakers, and HypersomniacLive on trains other than JoeSapphire.

What did they have to say about JoeSapphire during Day 1?

HypersomniacLive

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HypersomniacLive: I don't think JoeSapphire's lynch is going to flip mafia, Neutral at best. And since a hammer's no needed to secure the lynch, I don't feel inclined to join that wagon; there are already (more than) plenty of people on his wagon.
Fair enough that you don't think he's going to flip mafia. But how is there already being plenty of people on his wagon a good decision to not get on his wagon? If you don't want to lynch him, fair enough. If you just don't want to get on his wagon, that's a bit suspicious.


muddysneakers

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muddysneakers: I don't like lynching Joe here. He seems too loud and too obvious to be mafia. Maybe neutral as some have suggested.
Good reason to not be on the wagon. :thumbsup:


SirPrimalform

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SirPrimalform: I feel like Joe is trying too hard, but it's early days in the game (for him).
And he doesn't interact much with JoeSapphire after that. Sooo... null read.


cristigale

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cristigale: I think Joe was right about the original reasons he ended in my bottom pile. Mostly lack of participation, although he expressed opinions from the get go. I'm not sure why he got so much flak for the TRUFAX line, that seemed obvious to me. But there were other parts of his posts where it seemed like he was sticking his foot in his mouth. And for better or worse, the rest of his posts were defending against those perceived slips, lack of attention to the game or honest mistakes. Which makes it feel like he's been on the defensive from the get go. They could be poor word choices or mis-thoughts or simply being rushed but his play presents the most suspicions (except scene which I've already explained). When I look at my POE list, Joe is at bottom.
So by process of elimination, you think Joe is likely to be scum. Yet right to the end of the day, you had your vote on me, despite reading me as null.

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cristigale: I left my vote on agent in #121 because up to that point, agent's contributions had been minimal. That has obviously changed since then. He certainly stepped up his game. I mostly follow his reasoning. One point I don't understand is his high ranking of flubb. (And I like that muddy continues to press him about it). There were a couple other points that made me go hmmm...but others have addressed them and agent shifted his position as a result. I can see the style he uses leaning either way. Net result: null read.
I actually don't like that much at all. It kind of looks like scum wanting to stay off a wagon. Why wouldn't you vote for someone you found more suspicious?


Everything here is a little WIFOMy, of course, since I had to lay out my reasoning in the middle of Day 1. But I think it's still something to think about.

Sometime later I'll look at those who got on the wagon. Also, I need to revisit my scum/town reads. Class now, though.
Sorry people, I've had a fairly busy couple of days from which my mind ended up exhausted and I haven't been keeping up with the game. I'll see if I can catch up later today, or more probably tomorrow morning while I'm waiting for the business call in question.

to think I posted early to kid around and I don't even have the presence of mind to do just that... my apologies.
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cristigale: ...........

@flubb - do you know what I'm referring to when I say paranoid Ixam? Do you get that sense or do you think it's applicable to scum!Ixam. I'm asking you specifically due to what I remember from the all-mafia game.

............
Paranoid is not something I've caught wind of in his posts but I'm not too keen. However I do get the feeling he's keeping himself very safe in his posts. Painting in very broad strokes.

And for the record, I see you and bler144 buddying like the mutual admiration society.
Ok, I'm going to try and catch up now. Again, apologies for my absence.

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muddysneakers: No, I have not applied much heat to flub. I'm just surprised no one else has either. My attentions are more focused on agent right now but flub is definitely 2nd.
No one else has? I'm voting for flub.

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muddysneakers: 1. I missed P1na's vote at the beginning.
Ok, got it. Still, it's the only thing I've done "today", so please notice me, sempai.

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agentcarr16: 1. I don't like how convenient this all was for P1na.

Vanilla Town is a better lynch than Neutral?
We have to disagree there, I do like it when it's convenient for, well, me. It's quite convenient.

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P1na: Good morning everyone!! I made it!!!!
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cristigale: Woot! Congrats!
Thank you!

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ZFR: The late comers were agent, myself and P1na. Note that the final daily vote count is misleading: agent's vote was the fifth on Joe, since when he voted I was on Joe too before hopping back and forth. His vote made it 5-3 to Joe vs me.
You can disregard me, I was in possibility of being co-lynched so I had personal self-preservation interest in voting for Joe. But wouldn't you say then that if I'm Town (I know I am) and if Joe is Town (we all now he is) then that would make agent and P1na Town too? There was no reason for them to make Joe's wagon move further away from me thus diminishing the probability that 2 townies get lynched.

The only counter-argument I can see is either scum!P1na or scum!agent making a mistake and voting Joe because why not vote on the townie wagon, without thinking it through.
Not thinking it through does sound like me, actually. But, maybe I'm a master manipulator that wants you to think that! In the end, even if I talk against myself, doing stuff that goes agaisnt what mafia would do so you aren't suspected as mafia should be a rather basic move on this game, no? Still, I personally never felt you were in real danger of getting lynched yesterday. I may quite feel the pressure when switching my vote to make a wagon stand out, like with SPF earlier; but your votes barely rivaled Joe's and that's counting my own joke one.

I like reading your theory because it theorizes about what I must have been thinking, and since I know a thing or two about the topic, it helps me read you. Too tired to make any concrete theories about what it means, but I do feel like you're a bit overly paranoid about that double lynch.

Anyway, I caught up. Not much to say though, I think I'll stick with my vote for the time being, as I don't feel the situation changed much on that front. I will make the effort to answer if I'm quoted at least. I have an important work meeting tomorrow and hopefully things will calm down a bit after that.

Also, I seem to have caused a very town impression. I'm kinda happy with that, but please someone pretend to suspect me. I have the impression that being the towniest would get me nightkilled by mafia.

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P1na: Good morning everyone!! I made it!!!!
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Lifthrasil: Can you make it again? Your last post was 2 days ago. Please come back to the game.

Consider yourself poked!
Oh no, my chastity!!
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bler144: 2. Well, I mean, you said it ;) It could also just be newbishness of whatever alignment. At first pass it's definitely weird.

Unless I'm missing something, one point of agreement particularly when it comes to the intersection of culture/etiquette/mechanics does not buddying make. If you say something I like and/or agree with, I'll agree with you. If you say something I dislike or just disagree with, I may attack you, or raise an eyebrow, offer a counterpoint or turn it into a joke, in some measure.

Was there a pattern of ZFR trying to woo you that is observable?

3. Not sure how to read this since it's ambiguously parsed, but what the hell: why, specifically, do you think agent and flub are NOT mafia together?

Or are you just saying tepidly that you're not arguing that they are mafia together but they could be and as a result something something?

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cristigale: During dinner I was mulling over your post. The general idea of scum trying to tie the votes D1 is probably more likely than I gave it credit.
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bler144: I shouldn't, but I'll bite since the two paragraphs together are intriguing. Can you elaborate in like, a sentence or two?

And are you talking theoretically, or in this game specifically.
2. It was a bit of a half baked plan. Over the span of a handful of posts ZFR defended my no lynch vote to agent eventually convincing him it was a mistake that inexperienced town would make. As I recall you and cristi both made a single comment on it as well as Ixam. I believe cristi thought it was neutral/town and you thought it was eyebrow raising. No one else felt the need to explain it except ZFR. I thought that exchange could be important hence my vote on ZFR D1. On D2 I felt there were scummier targets especially in the light of everyone thinking ZFR was quite towny EOD D1.

3. Not tepid. Agent's comments about level 6 town flub and vote Joe because of flub's reads seemed a little weird to me. That's why I like agent. I don't think he does that if they are both mafia. My reason for flub is a little flimsy in light of everyone piling on ZFR but it's basically because I think ZFR's vote on Joe to avoid self lynch is NAI even if everyone thinks his explanation isn't and flub's vote on Joe to avoid EOD chaos isn't as towny as everyone thinks.
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flubbucket: [...] Well, allegations aren't facts. [...]
Don't follow, what allegations?



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Ixamyakxim: [...] What's your point in repeating it? [...]
Calling you out != repeating it. Try harder.


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Ixamyakxim: [...] No I'm doing a bit of lurking as well. [...]
So, your argument then for voting a lurker will be "Hey, I'm voting this player for their lurking isn't as good as mine"?

Also nice to see you're answering questions very selectively.



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cristigale: [...] @Hyper - do you think there is a noticeable tell between your town and scum game? [...]
I'd like to think that there isn't, but perhaps there is, and I'm not aware of it (yet?).

Having said that, I find your question a bit... odd.



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agentcarr16: [...] Fair enough that you don't think he's going to flip mafia. But how is there already being plenty of people on his

wagon a good decision to not get on his wagon? If you don't want to lynch him, fair enough. If you just don't want to get on his

wagon, that's a bit suspicious. [...]
The two are not related, certainly not in the way you read it.

You theorised into a specific direction because of the different lynch mechanic in your post #176. And hopped on JoeSapphire's wagon two posts later.
But it's equally likely that scum will act into the opposite direction, more so on D1, exactly because of the different lynch mechanic, and the possible implications of being off wagon (more so than usual), so I'm keeping it firmly in mind when looking at the votes and wagons progression, and hence my:

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HypersomniacLive: [...] there are already (more than) plenty of people on his wagon. [...]
which follows something I had said earlier in the same post, namely:

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HypersomniacLive: [...] even if everyone seems to approach EoD and the lynch like always, or cares to appear to be doing so. [...]
So, I didn't think he'd flip mafia, hence I didn't vote him because I didn't want to lynch him, and at the same time made a comment on how the L-1 status of a wagon I didn't like looked to me.


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agentcarr16: [...] :thumbsup: [...]
(*^-‘)
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Ixamyakxim: And am I the only one happy about Joe's flip after the non-claim? I mean I "assume" he was around to do it, but the wagon went fast at the end when we got close to end of day and I guess he could have missed his chance.
Can you clarify this for me? What would Joe claim? That he was town? That's what everyone is doing. Or claim a PR or neutral status? Wouldn't that be scummy? Not sure what you wanted him to claim when he was VT.
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ZFR: Now here are more of my thoughts. I thought about it some more: in a normal game on D1, mafia want to lynch that townie. Sure a no-lynch is good for them, but so is a townie lynch; especially if there is a chance of hitting a power-role or forcing him/her to claim. This means that latecomers to the wagon, including the hammer, can and often will be mafia.
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cristigale: I agree that scum benefits from pushing two town lynches. However, would they have the opportunity on D1 to plan and try to carry that out? I had not thought about it until you mentioned it. If scum did not have a chat N0, they would not be able to talk with one another until N1. I'm not sure I'd be cognizant of it on D1 as scum - with this being new.

The other issue is finding a way to vote for you that feels natural. That's why I asked about agent. It looks scummy to vote you if they had not first laid some ground work or saw a good opening.

I don't find it a convincing reason to give either player town points.
I've been thinking about this and I'm not sure I agree with either of you. Yes scum would like a double lynch but if I was scum I think I would be hyper-sensitive to the possibility (assuming I read the rules) that the people on the two wagons (likely totaling 6 or maybe 8) would be getting a lot of extra scrutiny. Possibly even cutting the pool in half. Even if scum places a vote and leaves and uses the I wasn't here so I didn't know there was a double lynch I think the present players would be quite alarmed at the possibility and one or more would change their vote last minute to avoid it. The more I think about it the more I think there is almost no possibility for scum to luck into a double lynch. They would need to plant the seed and get buy in from a lot of town/neutral players for it to happen. Anyone pushing for and voting for a double lynch against the will of the rest of the players would get lynched themselves even if they claimed town. I just don't see it.
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flubbucket: [...] Well, allegations aren't facts. [...]
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HypersomniacLive: Don't follow, what allegations?

...............
The allegation there are neutrals in this game.
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Lifthrasil: [bUpdated by bler and probably missed something vote count


agent 1 - muddy (269)
Ixam 1 - flubb (301)
ZFR 1 - SirP (273)
flubb 1 - P1na (257)
SirP 2 - ZFR (258), SPF (342)
HSL 1 - Ix (347)

Not voting: agent, HSL, bler,
With 10 alive it takes 6 votes to lynch in Phase 1.
So...the bad news is that at this point in the day this looks less like D2 and more like D1 2.0.

Not letting myself off the hook there. It just is. Voting now it would be Ix or ZFR - the latter seems more valuable in terms of potentially assessing D1. Will try and get through other reads tonight but getting a late start due to RL.



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cristigale: bler - nothing has not changed.
nothing is both immutable and eternal.

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cristigale: ZFR - had a rough start today, drops him down a bit
...
SPF - one of SPF or ZFR is probably scum, I don't remember anything from SPF other than his suspicion ZFR. Which still worries me.

SPF is at the bottom of my POE:

Vote SirPrimalform
I'm curious. 1) You're town reading P1na on tone despite not having <done> much. Imo SPF has good tone despite not having done much besides tunneling ZFR and a bit of fiddling with Joe. What do you see as the difference there in tone? Just the purely unfakeable day opener?

2) If your premise is ZFR vs. SPF points to maf (or did you just mean non-town?), what do you recall of ZFR other than defending his Joe vote? Did you re-read both?

As to your other question, prior to game #53, I would have said yes. After game 53, hard to say. Of the three players I'd say I usually read well, both HSL (town) and Wyrm (null then vacillated) were off, but hard to say how telling given the sub situation. So, optimistic, but not convinced, no.

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ZFR: If votes are (everyone else <3), TownA(3), TownB(4) why would they vote TownB? They might not actively try and get a double-lynch, but they could just leave it as is to make it more likely to happen. No grand double-lynch strategy that requires planning and coordination.
Because...B might be a more natural vote for that player? Maybe they want to see a claim. And/or just staying off might be more suspicious. Might not get you lynched but it might get you copped...which might get you lynched.

You're right they could, but since you probably won't "know" til after the fact, I'm not sure where you're going with this.


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bler144: Are you talking D2 and...proposing maf!SPF + maf!P1na? I don't follow how you got here.
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ZFR: I don't follow you. What's P1na got to do with it?
My fault, I didn't understand what you were arguing. My original question, though, was where does maf!SPF leeeead you. Maf flipping will always make 1-2 players more towny. That's great, but if SPF is maf, who looks maf with him, since M>1, presumably.

I'm presuming now you're going to say me. ;)

Plus, you're right that SPF and flub becomes more unlikely, but that's why it's WIFOM.

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SirPrimalform: Voting Joe for "knowing" the scum team seems paranoid to me. I wonder if Joe was partially right?
Long story, but she's talking deeeep paranoia. He was so flipped out he refused to relay information on his night action back to his own team because he thought it was all a trick and they were going to betray him ...for reasons no one else still understands. Ironically, they won a perfect victory despite never figuring out how to get an NK.

If it hadn't been an all-maf game he would have been lynched by D2-D3 imo, as it was pretty apparent, but the yogs coalition was too busy cleaning up other obvious mis-steps chaining off one another (P1na, leonard, adalia) and by D4 his team controlled the vote enough to prevent it.

Other funny Ix stories (like the time he used his town protective power to try to investigate a claimed town paranoid barn/gun owner - and yes, you read that right - it was partly the mod's fault though), but not the time for it, probably.

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ZFR: everyone else <3
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SirPrimalform: Aww, everyone else <3 you too!
lol - I had to go back to the quote to see where this came from, but that's pretty funny.
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Ixamyakxim: Usually I do like to push wagons and tend to be a bit "bouncy" with my votes.

On that note, before we do hit Phase Two

Vote HSL
Ok tigger, why HSL?


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bler144: The few people I might have suspected to be goofing more including myself all seem relatively serious for whatever reason(s).
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agentcarr16: Who?
Well me, obviously. Also SPF. He seems to have picked the humor up a notch again, presumably in the interests of wolf-hunting.

P1na
Flub (a la posts 23 - 132 are still mostly jokey, and then the tone shifts)


....
And HSL tells a mean knock-knock joke.


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flubbucket: And for the record, I see you and bler144 buddying like the mutual admiration society.
Fwiw, (probably not much) last game we played together (t/t) I hard town read her I think by mid D1, and then screamed bloody murder that she shouldn't be the lynch.

I am eyeing two other faint whiffs of players buddying me, but it's not cristi.

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muddysneakers: 1. I missed P1na's vote at the beginning.
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P1na: Ok, got it. Still, it's the only thing I've done "today", so please notice me, sempai.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nW9Cu6GYqxo

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P1na: Also, I seem to have caused a very town impression. I'm kinda happy with that, but please someone pretend to suspect me. I have the impression that being the towniest would get me nightkilled by mafia.
/eyebrowraise at all of that



I did enjoy the jokes tho. ;)


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muddysneakers: 2. I believe cristi thought it was neutral/town and you [responding to bler] thought it was eyebrow raising. No one else felt the need to explain it except ZFR.

3. Not tepid. Agent's comments about level 6 town flub and vote Joe because of flub's reads seemed a little weird to me. That's why I like agent. I don't think he does that if they are both mafia. My reason for flub is a little flimsy in light of everyone piling on ZFR but it's basically because I think ZFR's vote on Joe to avoid self lynch is NAI even if everyone thinks his explanation isn't and flub's vote on Joe to avoid EOD chaos isn't as towny as everyone thinks.
2. I can't find it since I was concerned about my mental state since that really doesn't sound like anything I would ever say outside of very specific game contexts, but I suspect what I said is that you're lucky that other regulars who consider it a mortal sin aren't playing this game, but for me it's not inherently eyebrow worthy. But not particularly relevant atm.

Also, generally once a few players have commented on something like that you won't get other answers because other players either just don't care to start or feel it's been adequately addressed.

3. I'm still not sure I follow this beyond that you don't think agent/flub are w/w together, but both suspicious for...something. I'll have to go find your explanation for your vote.


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muddysneakers: Can you clarify this for me? What would Joe claim? That he was town? That's what everyone is doing. Or claim a PR or neutral status? Wouldn't that be scummy? Not sure what you wanted him to claim when he was VT.
<In general> VT should still claim their role at L-1 or whatever seems appropriate vis-a-vis deadline, even if it is just VT, and no VT should never directly claim town PR ever. Saying "I am the parity cop!" as VT only pushes the actual one to either counter-claim (thus reveal unnecessarily and get NKed that night almost certainly) or waste a night investigating a VT.

Whether it's scummy or not, it's just inherently bad for your team tactically.

Not claiming looks suspicious, though if you're bold/good enough, in some setups you can hint at a PR, try to force no lynch by staying under maj, and sucking up NK or maf PR potentially. But in this setup that probably doesn't get you anywhere.

That said, Joe had access issues apparently, and we have a semi-random deadline, so only he knows when he would have intended to claim given how he viewed the gamestate.

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HypersomniacLive: Don't follow, what allegations?

...............
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flubbucket: The allegation there are neutrals in this game.
lol?