I was hoping he would have responded by now, but I'm starting to think he will not. It's to the point that it's beyond lurking into not playing. But I seem to be the only one who is concerned about it.

45 minutes til midnight, still haven't heard from BlueMooner nor HijacK today...

Did you visit someone N1?

Monday noon vote count...
2 Flubbucket (Lifthrasil, Dedoporno)
1 BlueMooner (Trentonlf)

There are 12 players left and it takes 7 votes to force someone off the island and 6 votes to No-Lynch.
Deadline is in 24 hours, Tuesday September 29th Midnight EDT (UTC -4) [Wednesday Sept 30th at 4 am UTC]

Not appearing today: BlueMooner and HijacK
Deadline is tomorrow!

Bagatha Chrustie seems to be mostly passed out in the corner with a brown bag in her hand.
There are occassional mutterings...
***slow as molasses***
***why did I sign up for this***
***my career, my career***

Thanks for letting me know. Incidently I hope it's nice underwear?
So you're a watcher that wouldn't see if someone else visited me? Am I reading your restriction correctly?
It's nice that you widened my choice of possible unrestictions today to 4. Now scum has more potential to get it wrong :D

that's a pretty nice summary on those three. So I take it you also don't see the "obvious" stuff flubs has said about himself? Glad I'm not the only one. But before this wagon gets more traction (ie me getting on board) I'd like for HSL to maybe explain his thoughts on flubs... it's what's keeping me from voting flubs at the moment.

---------------


Well I also do so. Because this investigation, paired with lift getting it so early while none of the other scum did, makes me pretty damn sure he ain't scum.

well I also wondered about that. thanks for clearing it up.


ok. I'll try: here's the original snippet I answered to:

the way I read your post it was implying someone might be covering for his scumbuddy. I never thought about sage when I wrote that! now that it's cleared up I get it, but it wasn't clear from that snippet.
So without thinking about sage I didn't see how trent voting and asking for bluemooner to be replaced, could be him covering for his scum buddy bluemooner. But then I realized, if bluemooner was scum, he could be lynched today for lurking and would be gone to his buddy trent, so asking him to get a replacement instead of getting lynched for lurking could be considered covering?
I know now that's not it, it's just to explain why I wrote what I wrote.

Well, I feel stupid, I see what I obviously missed.

@Hyper - a piggyback on mchack's question in the last post...are you more apt to believe flubb is town as a result of what you find? I don't think I've noticed as much and not certain what to make of it.

And did you run into any other person visiting mchack last night?

More like I don't trust what he says. And yes, I doubt I see everything that's there to be seen since I don't have time to re-read as much as I'd like.

The amount of activity around here makes me afraid we'll finally end up no-lynching, though.

Here are CSPVG’s wagon: Cristigale, McHack, Yogsloth, Dedoporno, Krypsyn, AgentCarr16, Lifthrasil, HypersomniacLive, HijacK

And Krypsyn’s wagon: McHack, Yogsloth, Lifthrasil, Dedoporno, Trentonlf, JMich, Flubbucket, Cristigale

Of those players still in the game (listed in alphabetical order):
Voted on both CSPVG and Krypsyn: cristi, dedo, lift, mchack
Voted on CSPVG only: HijacK, Hyper
Voted on Krypsyn only: flubb, JMich, trent
Voted on neither CSPVG or Krypsyn: adalia, BlueMooner, Sage

Given the quick nature of CSPVG’s lynch and alternative candidates, scum had more time to jump on Kryspyn’s wagon and no other existing wagons to join. Assuming two scum are remaining, I expect at least one scum on Kryspyn’s wagon.

When considering flubb and trent, if flubb is lynched and flips town, then trent is likely town. Why would scum step in and claim unexpectedly to help flubb? If trent is lynched and flips scum, flubb is likely scum. Again, why would scum claim out of the blue to help a town receiving pressure? If flubb flipped scum or trent flipped town, the conclusion about the other party is not as cut and dry for me. I would tend to lean towards whichever alignment flipped.

I’ll be checking the game from my phone as often as possible today.

I'm way past your vote on BlueMooner. If you hadn't replied to HijacK the way you did, I wouldn't have questioned you further.
But anyway, we're at a different point now.


OK, let’s see what we have so far:
(A) There’s been one NK each Night so far.
(B) yogsloth said he felt something like a role-block on N1.
(C) According to trentonlf (posts #1066 and #1075) there’s a scum role-restrictor.

What are the possible scenarios here?
Case #1: We have one mafia team
(1.1) We still have three scum left, assuming that they can’t use any power they have and perform the NK.
(1.2) We have two scum left, assuming that they can use any abilities they have and perform the NK.
I don’t remember what RWarehall’s stance is on the matter of total number of scum, but given that we already lynched two scum, I find (1.1) quite unlikely as that would put the total number of scum to five.
Which brings us to (1.2) - would our mod give scum the flexibility/power to function in the manner of (1.2)?
If the answer is yes, then we’re pretty screwed, as scum will always be one step ahead of town, especially as our numbers decrease with every NK.
If the answer is no, then one of (A) – (C) can’t be true, and the most likely to be false is (C).

Case #2: We have two mafia teams
(2.1) They can’t NK at the same night, or they have chosen the same target so far (has happened in a previous game with two mafia teams).
There doesn’t seem to be any evidence so far supporting the existence of two mafia teams, and given that the whole restriction business imposed on town is a complicating enough factor, I’m leaning towards having one mafia team.

Case #3: We have one mafia team and at least one third-party
(3.1) The NKs have been performed by either scum or the third-party. If the latter, what have scum been doing for two Nights?
(3.2) Scum and the third-party alternate in doing the NKs, and (B) and (C). That would require some sort of collaboration though in order to produce results that throw off town.
(3.3) The third-party is responsible for (B) and/ or (C). In either case, the third-party would be actively working against town and in favour of scum. Would the mod put such a role in the game and for what purpose?

There may be other cases, and I may have made some errors or leaps here, but all in all, I’m inclined to go with the scenario that requires the least assumptions in lack of any supporting evidence.
Which brings me back to Case #1, and the case of (C) being false.
If (C) is not true, then trentonlf is lying about N2, and if he’s lying about that then what he said about N1 becomes suspicious at the very least – I hope that our mod is not enough of a bastard to feed a townie with clues that can exonerate scum.

Which brings me to flubbucket.

I’ve found 5 posts, possibly 6, from flubbucket that contain breadcrumbs of his (alleged) role.All but one post, were made after trentonlf reported on his N1 action. As I said, there’s one specific element to that role that can easily put him in the mafia team (and also explain a couple of things), with everything else he’s said being a cover to appear town. Including the avatar he chose, if that is any sort of tell as trentonlf claims.

I’ve also played with the thought that, seeing that I care about his breadcrumbs, he perhaps keeps throwing them every chance he gets in an attempt to scatter any doubts I have for good, possibly hoping that I’d then try to convince others.

This is probably too meta, but I’m getting uneasy every time flubbucket comes forth with any sort of reads on players, as I’ve only seen him do that as scum, and it always feels like he’s trying to appear helpful. I asked specifically about this and the only one that replied was trentonlf with a general comment that flubbucket acts the same whether town or scum.

Do I think he’s more likely to be town than not? Well, if I did, I wouldn’t be dancing around with him for most of D2.

Long story short, I’m not sure if flubbucket is who he says he is, and it needs to be cleared one way or another. We don’t seem to have any other way than the lynch, so, at this point I’m ok with voting him or trentonlf.

And to put my money where my mouth is:


Vote flubbucket



The majority of players are from the other side of the pond, I hope activity will pick up shortly after they wake up, but going by the previous Days, it will probably be around our midnight.

Only if they don't have a godfather, we've seen in previous games scum purposely leaving the cop alive in the hopes of them getting a false read on their godfather.

I've been called out a number of times in previous games for saying things like "we know" or "someone is such and such" and people saying these are not facts that we know, just assumptions based off people's claims etc.
So now I'm always quite careful to never state anything as a fact unless it's been confirmed by a flip...

I did. As I doubt any claim until it has further corroboration. Ok, in this case the doubts are fairly small as while they could have been a scum duo together it seems highly unlikely.

Fair enough, that makes much more sense when put that way.

Wow, way to completely misunderstand the situation.

This is a really good analysis of the situation and some good points. What I'm wondering though, is why have you voted flub if you believe trent is lying? Or am I just misunderstanding the point of that first section of analysis?

Of the two I think trent is the obvious lynch target:
1) If he flips scum then there's a good chance flub is scum (why would scum save a townie from lynch? Unless it was purely for town points, but that only works if flub is confirmed or flips town). The same can't necessarily be said in reverse, as trent could have mistakenly leapt to flub's defence thinking he was town.
2) He is claiming to have been restricted, so if he is town and telling the truth we don't lose much, plus we learn that there is a scum restrictor. Whereas flub (if he is town) has a yet to be confirmed role which may be of use to us.
3) There seems to be more evidence to suggest he may be lying about his role or actions.

So I think for know I will:
Vote trentonlf

Then yes, you should do a re-read, because I thought I explained why I pushed for a mass claim yesterday (although I usually don't like mass-claims). Early on Day 2, with town having an information advantage for a change and scum having no clue what was going on exactly, it would have been very difficult for scum to claim. So a mass claim would most likely have led to an easy town win. So easy in fact, that many considered it 'game breaking' - which was the main reason some spoke out against the mass claim in this instance. I.e. under the special circumstances, a mass claim would have been such a powerful tool for town, that it would have basically ended the game early.
So I really don't see, why you don't get and don't like an attempt to ensure an easy win for town. Unless, of course, you are scum. Then I would entirely understand, why you didn't like the push for mass-claim yesterday.
As for today: I didn't push for it today, I asked whether you think it would still be beneficial for town today, considering scum knows now what is going on.


Nice summary. I also still think that lynching flubb is the best way to go. Either we hit scum (hopefully) or we basically clear trent. The first would obviously be great, the second wouldn't be bad for town either.

Another reason I prefer flubb over trent is, that flubb utterly refused to claim when he was nominated to go first. So the only way to find out more about him is a lynch - he even said so himself. Categorically refusing to claim, in a situation where a claim would have been beneficial to town and difficult and dangerous to scum, is in itself a scummy thing to do. Trent, however, has already claimed and that claim can be cross-checked with flubb's flip.

vote flubbucket

for all the good reasons given already. (will have more time to comment later)

@HyperSomniacLive: Please, would you write it out for the slow witted like myself what you think flubs might be? Pretty please with sugar on top? You know I won't believe you, when you go "that's what I thought all along" after the flip :P