I seem to have a problem with this every time. I am in Skellige, I have just completed the wake, I beat up Lugos who didn't give me the quest, I went to Arinbjorn where the contract wasn't on the board and I entered the Inn where Jorund was nowhere to be found, I fast traveled over to the lighthouse - no fog.

When I first used to do this quest I could just fast travel to the island and it would just activate without having picked it up, now I can't get it to work whatever I

What is the trigger that stops it?

You have either a corrupt installation, or you have mods that are messing with the quest. Remove all mods and repair your installation.