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Temple of Elemental EvilHorrible dice rolls(11 posts)(11 posts)
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Posted November 02, 2010
I'm playing TOEE modded with the latest version of the Co8 addon, and I've been having a horrible time with the first couple fights. Only 5-10% of my hit rolls are 10 or over, with the average around 6. 100 dice rolls in, and it's obviously not random nor fair. Is there something I can do to fix this, or am I stuck rolling low?
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Posted November 04, 2010
Odd, I get pretty good rolls. All spots over 10.
Posted May 03, 2016
I'm right there with ya buddy.
The chances of rolling three 1s in a row is 1 in 8000, and yet I consistently see it happening fight after fight.
Either my luck is worse than I thought, or something is screwy with the dice roller in this game.
Posted May 05, 2016
I see you've taken spell focus (thread necromancy)...ah, well, might as well try to answer.

I realise this may be an obvious question, but are you sure you're looking at the d20 to hit roll and not your damage rolls when you hit? To see the to-hit rolls, click on the little dice in the bottom right hand corner to see a log of your actions. Each time you (or an enemy) attacks it'll say [X] misses [Y] or [X] hits [Y] and the misses or hits will be in blue. Click on it to see the details of your roll. Remember to look for the raw d20 roll rather than the final result, as it'll be affected by modifiers like your Base Attack Bonus.
Posted May 05, 2016
I'm going to add logging to the Temple+ to-hit rolls and settle this once and for all, hehe.
Posted May 06, 2016
I once played a game where it took 50 tries before an event with a 10% probability finally happened. The problem with probabilities is that they are.. erm... just probabilities. Just because something is improbable doesn't mean it won't ever actually happen. Even 100 die rolls with a d20 is a small sample. Sure you should start seeing the law of averages start coming into play eventually, but just because you rolled four 1s in a row with a d20 doesn't change the probability of the next roll also being less than 10.

Another phenomenon is purely psychological. We tend to gleefully overlook game situations when we got just plain lucky, and fixate on the times of bad luck. Believe me, if you play ToEE all the way through to the end, you will see plenty of both. Don't play ToEE in Ironman mode if you can't handle adversity in generous doses early on. I gotta say though some of my best memories of sessions I played were when I overcame bad luck... like the time my newbie party encountered a Groaning Spirit en route to Emridy Meadows (usually a tpk situation), and I managed to kill it using the only magic weapon available... Furnoc's magic dagger. Epic.
Posted May 06, 2016
What you say is probably true, but just for fun I've added logging for to-hit rolls in Temple+ 1.0.10. It will save all the rolls in the modules\toee subfolder, including breakdown for pc/npc and party/enemy. Let the statistic analyses begin :)
Posted January 12, 2017
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ajallan: I'm playing TOEE modded with the latest version of the Co8 addon, and I've been having a horrible time with the first couple fights. Only 5-10% of my hit rolls are 10 or over, with the average around 6. 100 dice rolls in, and it's obviously not random nor fair. Is there something I can do to fix this, or am I stuck rolling low?
I have to second this. I cannot hit the broad side of a barn. I'd think a Fighter with 18 strength or a Ranger with 18 dex could occasionally hit some of these low level sword fodder enemies.
Posted February 14, 2017
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Dreamteam67: I once played a game where it took 50 tries before an event with a 10% probability finally happened. The problem with probabilities is that they are.. erm... just probabilities. Just because something is improbable doesn't mean it won't ever actually happen. Even 100 die rolls with a d20 is a small sample. Sure you should start seeing the law of averages start coming into play eventually, but just because you rolled four 1s in a row with a d20 doesn't change the probability of the next roll also being less than 10.

Another phenomenon is purely psychological. We tend to gleefully overlook game situations when we got just plain lucky, and fixate on the times of bad luck. Believe me, if you play ToEE all the way through to the end, you will see plenty of both. Don't play ToEE in Ironman mode if you can't handle adversity in generous doses early on. I gotta say though some of my best memories of sessions I played were when I overcame bad luck... like the time my newbie party encountered a Groaning Spirit en route to Emridy Meadows (usually a tpk situation), and I managed to kill it using the only magic weapon available... Furnoc's magic dagger. Epic.
There is something inherently screwy about 'digital' probabilities in most games.

Ever played Monopoly on the computer for example?

It never plays like real monopoly with real dice.... hard to explain it, but digital probabilities are almost never natural probabilities. What you see reported as 10%.... i can guarantee that is not the real probability your getting.

You can do all manner of tests, which show in reality, probabilities generally do what they are supposed to do, hence, that is why it is a probability. Computers on the other hand.... in games.... never seem to understand the true nature of probabilities.... imagine asking a heavily intoxicated person to do maths.... that's gaming probability!

That's my general observation.

Edit: where you have proper scientific software, such as for global warming predictions or whatever the case may be.... they have to put huge effort to fine tune the probability calculations.... if they were to use the probability calculations that games use, the results would be utterly worthless.
Post edited February 14, 2017 by mystikmind2000
Posted May 20, 2017
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ajallan: I'm playing TOEE modded with the latest version of the Co8 addon, and I've been having a horrible time with the first couple fights. Only 5-10% of my hit rolls are 10 or over, with the average around 6. 100 dice rolls in, and it's obviously not random nor fair. Is there something I can do to fix this, or am I stuck rolling low?
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unclejoe1917: I have to second this. I cannot hit the broad side of a barn. I'd think a Fighter with 18 strength or a Ranger with 18 dex could occasionally hit some of these low level sword fodder enemies.
You don't hit with Dex(unless you have weapon finesse for that weapon). Look at your dolls and see why you're missing. Be sure not to dual wield.
Posted June 09, 2017
So I've run some statistics on my in-situ to-hit rolls. If anything, it shows that good streaks are more probable than expected, whereas bad streaks ( < 8 to hit roll 3 times in a row) are more or less as you'd expect.

The spreadsheet is here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-9r0jdaeXcfiy2lygZDXESkNCRQ7BLdBAbDDueR06Y8/edit?usp=sharing

If you're using Temple+, it will save your rolls to your ToEE folder under \modules\ToEE, so you can use the above spreadsheet to check your own luck.
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Temple of Elemental EvilHorrible dice rolls(11 posts)(11 posts)
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