whodares2: UK_John, the 71000 units in October that you were refering to, do you know if these numbers include just retail sales or digital download as well?
They do include some digital download. Although not Steam, as Steam don't give out sales numbers to ANYONE! Steam do however, give out their top 10 sellers. Far Cry 2 was No.1, with Fallout 3 No.2 on pre-order's only. A point and click adventure, however, was number 3, so you have to decide what all that means for sales numbers. I have always thought that if Steam was doing fantastic numbers they would release them. I mean if Steam had more downloads for Fallout 3 than there were retail sales, you would think they'd shout about how they were the future of game selling! The fact they don't and the fact that a point and click adventure can be No.3 in their chart for the month of October tells me their sales are quite low compared to retail sales.
The 71,000 definitely included some digital downloads and a lot of internet retail sales.It does include Amazon.com, for example.
If you are willing to do the math, you can see that Bethesda shipped 4.7 million units worldwide. 17% were PC (799,000 I believe) and that the U.S. market has about 1/3rd of the world PC game market, meaning approx 266,000 units were probably shipped to store retailers and internet retailers like Amazon.com. Now if you say 71,000 is about 25% of that total of 266,000, you could argue that's not bad for 3 days. You have to take account of the fact that as many as 30% of that 71,000 were pre-orders, making 'pick off the shelf' sales around the 50,000 mark. Extrapolate that out for the month of November, I would have thought that Fallout 3 on PC will sell around half a million units on PC in the North American market. Extrapolate that further and you have around 2.5 million sales on PC worldwide for November plus those 3 days in October. It wouldn't surprise me then, sometime in November, that we won't read an article saying 6 or 7 million sales including console sales. 2.5 - 3 million PC sales put's it in the STALKER, Medieval II Total War, Warhammer 40K Dawn of War, The Witcher type of numbers. It dwarfs sales numbers for Far Cry 2, Crysis, Dead Space and the like. Equally it is far from the 5+ million of both Half Life 1 and 2 (with sales ongoing).
In a strong market like the console market, it hard to see what sales might generate for any given title. But the PC games market is now so small in comparison (15-20% the size), with so few AAA title releases, that it's not too difficult to categorize them into approx 1 million, 2 million or 2 million plus sellers. Just read a few professional reviews and a couple dozen gamer reviews and you can get a pretty good idea. Fallout 3, because of the hype and clever marketing, along with the review scores and the Oblivion sales base was always likely to do the 2 million plus figure on PC. Equally, the next Total War Empires will probably do the 2 million whereas Dawn of War 2 probably won't.
It's fascinating trying to figure out what's happening to console and PC gaming, because no one survey lists all the sales numbers and so many download and internet retailers just won;t give out verifiable numbers! Certainly one of the reasons NPD doesn't take numbers from everybody is they insist the unit sales be verifiable!
Even today, for example, rumors still abound that if you sign up to Worlds of Warcraft for 30 days and then cancel. you are still counted as a subscriber until the end of Blizzards financial year! Blizzard have never commented on detailed figures, so nobody knows. Most people believe that their subscriber numbers must go up and down, but all we get is pronouncements of ever higher subscriber numbers!
It makes for a fascinating sub-hobby, this 'number chasing' - like being a detective! :)