Extra Credits mentioned it this week (and I have to say, nearly everything I watch by Movie Bob I end up liking, weird), but looking at the date and then watching it, wow. It's very interesting in light of how Sony has handled the PSN outage (and everything else this generation of consoles):

http://gameoverthinker.blogspot.com/2010/08/episode-39-emperor-has-no-clothes.html

Sorry for the extra topic, I really am interested in the feedback on the primary assertion of said video (I won't spoil it).

Well, it was super overdramatized, but sure. I'll buy into Sony being lucky.

I certainly never thought at the tail end of the PS2 era that In 2011, I'd be sitting here with a PS3 that I've only played two games on over the last three years.

I'm honestly not sure where the future of the console wars is. I don't personally buy into Microsoft vs Nintendo, but that's mainly because I don't find myself all that compelled by any of Nintendo's games. I feel like there's not enough market overlap between the two to make it a real rivalry, at least from the player's perspective. Obviously, it's a rivalry from the business side of things.

Nintendo's problem is they need to snag the hardcore market back if they want to keep selling living room consoles. All those "non-gamers" aren't going to see the benefit of upgrading to the Wii2 just to play Wii Fit HD and Wii Sports HD. Also Nintendo's online offerings have been pretty weaksauce. You take all the bitching about Live or PSN and the worst, legitimate complaints absolutely pale in comparison to just how bad Nintendo's online offering actually is.

I don't know if anyone knew at the beginning of this generation (and I truly suspect Sony didn't, for sure) but online is what has sold this generation of consoles, period, end of story. I doubt that will disappear from the next generation, instead I expect to see phone integration along with some other neat offerings (some of which will actually make sense).

Definitely. I know it's fun to make fun of Xbox Live, but it is the reason why Xbox does so well, and why I never play my PS3 or buy games for it unless it is an exclusive (hardly exists these days) and something I really want to play (this combination has only occurred twice in three years).

Frankly, it's mind boggling how Microsoft got the Xbox down but has failed so bad in other areas aimed at the consumer market. Whether this is an indication that they got lucky, just like the video you linked said Sony got lucky, and aren't actually any good at things, or what, I don't know.

MS didn't get lucky so much as they've been doggedly trying to get a PC-like device as the central living room entertainment device for over a decade now. They pour crap-tons of money into R&D for all divisions. Hell, their payroll of Linux specialists probably exceeds the GDP of some countries and they hate Linux with a passion (rather they hate the spirit that drives it, but I digress).

So, after sinking untold dollars into it they have finally pretty much invented a market that no one knew existed. They turned US college frat boys into hardcore Madden and Halo players. They launched an indie market which is practically free to launch games on (ever wonder why consoles never had indies or small titles before? Because the Japanese console makers demanded 7 USD or more per game royalties). They launched an Arcade market which was perfect for monetizing side projects at big studios.

Kin was an utter, fucking failure, and they paid for it. Windows Phone 7 won't be, want to know why? Because they will doggedly pursue until they have it. They're going to move the entire Zune ecosystem onto it (my prediction, nothing official, afaik).

People make fun of MS, and I can't say I've been a fan of everything they've done (after all, I have a lot of Linux devices and only a handful of Windows devices), but one thing they are good at: learning from their mistakes. Never underestimate MS after you've beat the everliving hell out of them, they will come back knowing how to counter every trick you used previously.

And... I'm drunk, thanks for reading... or sorry or something.

Good drunk post, especially "invented a market that no one knew existed," a great way to look at the situation. It's easy to forget just what MS has accomplished.

And how much of that "luck" was actually lucky? Timing is always a part of business, both good and bad. But Sony also played to one strength it had, and that was expertise and infrastructure in optical technologies. Well, it also had a media division, which probably led to efficiencies in dealing with licensing and marketing the actual content created for the consoles. Maybe a minor factor there.

I don't agree with the attempted baseball / basketball analogy. While handhelds, portable media devices, and phones with apps have a blurred boundary, one can make an obvious distinction between those two sports. One can use a PSP to do some things that an iPod or Droid phone will do. Not so between those two sports. Unless we're talking Baseketball, but that apparently didn't take off beyond one dumb movie.

He posits that it's now a game between Microsoft and Nintendo as Sony lags, but if we look at the past product cycle of the PS consoles, Sony is due for PS4 (or whatever replaces it) in the next year or two. Whether or not they do so is another matter, but we see a similar thing all the time in the auto industry: the newly-released darling in 2008 is a dog, compared to the competition, by 2011 or 2012. So out comes a new version and it regains praise compared to the now-older competition. Rinse, repeat.

So I dunno. For one, I don't follow the industry so I'm certain there's a heck of a lot more to it than I'll ever know. Maybe there was a bit of luck involved but I have a hard time believing that was the dominant factor. I mean, there's "lottery" luck and there's "the market is ready for this now and we happen to have the technology and resources to make it happen and we were kinda thinking about doing something like this, anyway, so let's give it a shot" luck.

I'll believe it when I see it. It seems to me that MS dropped the ball when it comes to mobile OS's. What matters now is software availability, and MS just doesn't have much to offer in that department. They could get away with it before, but with the hasty spread of iPhones and Android phones, and the phenomal amount of apps for absolutely anything at all that is available on these platforms, MS is going to have a hard time wrestling back market shares. (That's just my prediction.)

I don't think he's saying Sony is utterly incompetent and just lucky, I think it's more that they had some luck in that the marketplace didn't have a good offering at the time, so offering anything that didn't completely suck basically guaranteed good fortune. That no longer is true (also I see some parallels between how Nintendo treated devs then and how Sony treats them now).

So, while Movie Bob did say luck, it's important to qualify what the luck was: no real competition won them a lot of great developers pushing games out on their consoles. I have a heavy personal investment in Android and I will honestly tell you: all the benefits of Android are going to the phone carriers, not the phone buyers. The UI on these devices honestly is in its infancy (and that's a kind way of saying: blows), even the much vaunted Apple devices kind of have a crappy and inconsistent UI (though it looks nice and that's a plus).

Realize that what is selling these phones is functionality/apps. The minute people perceive they don't need a really expensive iPhone or Android to get their music and games (remember these are casual gamers and tech users) they are going to jump ship in droves. What made Nokia a powerhouse was the ability to sell a 70 USD phone that didn't suck nearly as badly as the competition. When they can do a 100 USD WP7 phone that does around 40-50% of what Android and iOS does they are going to pull back a ton of buyers who just can't commit to those expensive phones/plans over the long term.

One thing that'd be interesting to know is what the state of internet connectivity was in Japan at the time the PS3 was being envisioned. I know I always hear about internet cafes in China and S. Korea (implying that's where a lot of people spend time on the intertubes), but I know nothing about Japan. Maybe this played into Sony being sort of caught flatfooted with the whole online experience. Just a thought.

Actually Japan has been largely ahead of the US on both cell phones and, afaik, broadband internet. Bansama or some other people actually living there may be able to tell more. I think the problem was console gamers traditionally didn't care about online, if you wanted online you had a gaming PC, that's how it was. 2004 changed all that (imo for the better).

Check out the Mango update for WP7 that is coming this September. Tastes sweet! :)

I feel like an utterly old fart when it comes to phones. Outside of google maps, I just use mine to text or place calls (sometimes check email). I've never felt any attraction to any other type of apps. So, the whole app-driven rush to buy the newest and shiniest and latest phone leaves me totally puzzled.

And, for all the focus on android and iphones, the truth is that most people I know, and most students I teach, don't use smart phones, so I sometimes wonder how much the whole shebang is just artificially pushed into the forefront of our collective consumer consciousness.

But, I'm also well aware that I could just be an old fart about this as well. :p

Yea, I agree here. I think they'll be done with the Zune, since every Zune feature is already integrated into the Windows Phone devices.

That is exactly what I realize, and exactly why I say as I say. There's about a million billion zillion people making apps and games for Android and iPhone, and about 3 people making apps and games for WP7.