rojimboo: Looking at the Google Trends Index, the divergence began once the bill was presented to the National Assembly.
Yes, which was chronologically before the bill was passed. I don't mean that as a bombshell revelation of any sorts, and agree that the data clearly shows changing consumer behavior in response to public awareness of the bill.
rojimboo: The divergence grows, stabilises and remains at a certain level.
I'd disagree with characterizing it as stabilized. The period from Jan-11 through May-11 is relatively stable and overshadowed by noise, but so was the period between Jan-10 and May-10, which was followed by a substantial convergence in the latter part of that year. Did this convergence repeat in 2011? Did the divergence resume as Hadopi notices began to escalate? Did it stay at these steady-state values? I'd like to see more data, because I could see any of those three being the case.
They acknowledge this limitation themselves, but there is some literature to back them up, that mentions former pirates likelier to purchase from digital retailers rather that physical ones (quoted for everyone):
Thanks for the quote. I fully agree that a pirate-turned-consumer is more likely to purchase from digital channels, but that only underscores the point that we'd expect different results from an analysis of physical product sales.
Having an approximate 3:1 ratio of physical to digital sales is also good to know. I was uncertain of what the ratio would have been in France at the time.
If only they would have looked at the PC software industry too, and actually got data from digital distributors and physical retailers - that would have been such an interesting and relevant paper for us. If only the world was ideal, sigh.
Ideally, I'd like to see sales data for music, movies, books, and games, split by digital and physical products. That would be an illustrative comparison across the major classes of entertainment. And yes, I doubt we'll ever see such a study.