No . I never liked his works . :p

Actually you've hit the nail on head. They are broke, extremists are not. One of the debates that Britain has had to engage in in Afghanistan is whether or not to buy out the mercenaries that the taliban employ. They are well funded, and can offer $10 a day for fighting, whereas the army will only offer $4.

It does work, I mean the US more or less spent the USSR out of existence. The problem is that it can be very expensive. However on the bright side, if you're paying them to put down their weapons rather than join our side, then that can lead to positive change in terms of infrastructure.

New protests are comming up. One Mullah seems to be killed:
http://wieni2010.wordpress.com/2011/02/20/1-esfand-proteste-im-iran-gehen-weiter

I doubt the Egypt protests are going to change much after the dust has settled. Same thing with this.

I don't see topling of all north african/middle east goverments a problem, they are all either dictatorships or despotic monarchies that hoard the wealth of the countries for themselves. I also don't see war between said countries very likely. However there is real threat that some of the countries may either fall into anarchy or worse,spiral into civil war. And I too belive there's real change that religious and other exremist factions may gain more ground in some of the countries so much so that people in those countries may end up in far worse situation than they already are and we may see more terrorist activity as well, both domestic and abroad.

Oh and egyptians should definately continue protests at least until the emergency law is lifted as with that in place it's impossible for political parties to form or function legally. The military's plan to extend it for 6 month is simply unacceptable and stifles any hope of political reform. Also Mubarak's goverment should quickly be replaced by civilian caretaker goverment and military should move to back stage after caretaker goverment is in place and leave the decision making to them. If current situation persists there's high change that protesters will turn against the army, especially if army forcibly tries to put an end to protests.

Don't think anyone really can clearly forsee what will happen [though what is likely that there are a lot of vested interests being fought out behind closed doors.] What IS clear though, it that - if this dies down now it'll die down for a good long time again.

It took 30 years before the Egyptian population started these demonstrations. Gaddafi has been untouched, in Libya, for 41 years now. Rooting for a stop of these revolts will shut down these populations for a good long time again. If we want stability and fair, more democratic societies in the region the West would support this; assist the process / transition. You know - this is how you DO bring democracy to a country assist the popular (and non-secular!) movements rather than "liberating" (i.e. invading) a country and attempt a top-down approach.

Of course - that's not what's really wanted on the West's "political elite" agenda. Democracies, especially based on a popular movements like these, are unpredictable; see South American examples. They are much harder to control and influence, and will very likely focus on their own local interests first.

I'm happy for the people of Egypt, and hope that the result of all this is more personal freedom and democratic elements in the Egyptian society. But on the other hand Mubarak was not nearly as bad as the regimes in Iran and Libya. And that's probably why the rebels won; the Egyptian government did not want a bloodbath, and they realized that it was in the country's best interest that they stepped down.

The regimes in Iran and Libya have shown many times that they don't care very much about the populations best interest, and – as they are yet again proving – they are much more likely to take drastic actions to remain in power. They will not go peacefully just because the people wants freedom. As long as their regimes control the army and police force, they will strike down on any demonstrations with deadly force.