Posted December 14, 2013

For your suggestion to make sense, all of the following assumptions need to be true:
1. There must be a statistically significant number of people who do not vote when the outcome seems to be a foregone conclusion. You say that this "this has a bigger occurrence than you might think". That's a rather bold statement considering that no one except GOG is supposed to have the data to come to such a conclusion, and an assumption that I wouldn't expect anyone to make without proper data to back it up - so where is your data?
2. These people (the non-voters) must be dumb or lazy enough to make a wrong prediction. Because if they _correctly_ assume that the vote won't be turned around any more, then your argument is pointless, because the end result of the vote is the same no matter whether these people vote or not.
3. The people who give the first 2000 votes must have significantly different preferences from the people who vote later. If people's preferences are roughly evenly distributed (as one would expect from a mostly random sample such as this vote), then your argumentation is pointless, as the outcome of the vote would not be changed even if everybody voted. I see no reason to assume that early voters have significantly different preferences from later voters - what exactly are you basing this assumption on?
4. The effect described in (3) must be enormous in size. Your argumentation only works if a) early voters produce a difference in votes that is large enough to keep others from voting, and b) late voters prefer the other option by _so much more_ that they would be able to turn the vote around. That doesn't make sense, where should such enormous differences between earlier and later voters' preferences be coming from?
In short, I believe that your argumentation rests on rather bold assumptions which are extremely unlikely to be correct. I believe that instead of resorting to such complicated assumptions, people's behavior (and the voting results) can be explained much better and easier by these statements:
- Early voters and late voters are both random samples and have similar distributions of preferences.
- If there's a clear favorite, then some people may correctly assume that the result is a foregone conclusion, and not vote themselves
- This has no bearing on the outcome of the vote. If they don't vote, then the current leader will win, and if they vote, then the current leader will win as well.
I also think that most of this "let's hide the votes" movement is based on the frustration that one's own preferred choice is currently losing hard, as well as the irrational assumption that it could somehow win if the votes were hidden. There is no way how a bundle of games of which some were discounted on a special sale 3 days earlier, could somehow magically win a vote against a bundle of the consistently highest selling games in GOG's history (which haven't been discounted during the last months) on an 80% discount.
Btw I also would have preferred the "Memorable Dungeons", and I did vote for them, and I'm a bit sad that this offer is doing so badly in this vote. But I see no indication at all that there were masses of people who would have turned the vote, but abstained because of the current tally. I simply see one offer that is (as was to be expected) much more popular than the other. That's life.
TL;DR: You're upset about bad news (we won't get the offer that we both wanted), and you now want to kill the messenger (i.e. the numbers which tell that result). Which does not make sense, and will not have the positive effect that you hoped for, but will deprive others (like me) from useful information.
Post edited December 14, 2013 by Psyringe