Nmillar's 301 (and some earlier posts by Robbeasy and others) inspired me to update my vote count spreadsheet. So I did some vote analysis of D1 so far, and here's something potentially damning, though it may be more something to keep watch of for future days. It's not strong enough to change my vote yet because I do think Baz is Mafia, and I have only done a partial post analysis of the person. But it's not always whom they vote for as when they choose to vote for the person and hop on the wagon, so to speak, that can be very telling.
The following votecounts are from my spreadsheet, not Damuna, and are unofficial. FoS: Ubivis
First bandwagon: Zchinque. Azarr votes him in #26, Baz in #46, and this at this point the first 2-long bandwagon in the game (there are two others that are 1-long).
After post 52, the votecount looked like this:
Zchinque - 2 - Azarr, basilisek
bazilizek - 1 - Pazzer
Al1 - 1 - Zchinque
Ubivis is the next voter, in [
http://www.gog.com/en/forum/general/gog_mafia_2_sweet_gogville_high/post53]#53[/url], to hop on to make it 3-long. It becomes 4-long in #111 when Typhoon votes, 5 long when Robbeasy votes, so Ubi seems unsure, jumps off a bit (
) then back on again ([url=http://www.gog.com/en/forum/general/gog_mafia_2_sweet_gogville_high/post175]#175).
The only voting post in between was me starting the baz bandwagon (#168). Then when Robbeasy jumps off at #178 to vote baz, nmillar follows on baz in #179, and this is what the vote count looks like after that.
After post 180, the votecount looked like this:
Zchinque - 4 - Azarr, bazilisek, Typhoon45, Ubivis
bazilisek - 3 - jesskitten, Robbeasy, nmillar
Al1 - 2 - Zchinque, enterprise2004
Suddenly Ubivis jumps off Zchinque's wagon again at
. This could be trying to bail out of a failing bandwagon, closely followed by baz at #187. Tellingly, Ubivis does not get onto baz's wagon. He also claims in #181 that he will sit down and come up with his final decision, which while isn't accurate since he does change votes later (and is well entitled to do so), is a strange viewpoint for a townie who isn't aware of other peoples' alignments to have.
Fast forward to post 235. Where baz is in trouble, so he tries to restart the wagon on Typhoon. After post 234, the votecount looked like this:
bazilisek - 4 - jesskitten, Robbeasy, Damnation, enterprise2004
Azarr - 1 - nmillar
In #235, baz votes Typhoon (Ty: 1), and Damnation unvotes baz (baz: 3) and follows in #237 (Ty: 2). Now instead of a 4-long wagon, there is a 2-long and a 3-long one, and so Ubivis votes Typhoon (
#238) to make both wagons 3-long, and offer an alternate wagon to the baz one (in theory, if they're both scum).
Fast forward to post 280, where Typhoon is on L-1, just before Robbeasy unvotes him so he doesn't get to quick lynch.
After post 280, the votecount looked like this:
Typhoon45 - 6 - bazilisek, Damnation, Ubivis, Azarr, Pazzer, Robbeasy
bazilisek - 3 - jesskitten, Enterprise2004, Typhoon45
Azarr - 1 - nmillar
Robbeasy unvotes in #281, and Typhoon claims, then after the claim Damnation unvotes in #296, and Ubivis in #297. Of course at this point everyone's unvoting because he's a claimed power role, so that in itself isn't scummy (although it is a bit weird both his vote and unvote on Typhoon follow 1 post immediately after Damnation. Likely just random coincidence that both are exactly back to back posts.)
The exchange between nmillar and him is enlightening though,
#297:
Ubivis: I hope Typhoon is telling the truth (we will know tomorrow morning, if he get killed by the mafia or not?).
Unvote Typhoon45 #298:
nmillar: Wow, good thing I fell asleep earlier, otherwise I would probably have thrown down the hammer.
Like Robbeasy, however, I'm starting to believe that Azarr, Bazilisek and Ubivis are indeed the three mafia members.
#299:
nmillar: Wow, good thing I fell asleep earlier, otherwise I would probably have thrown down the hammer.
Like Robbeasy, however, I'm starting to believe that Azarr, Bazilisek and Ubivis are indeed the three mafia members.
Ubivis: a reason why?
with the knowledge of Typhoons innocence, I am absolutely fine by voting my second big suspect, which even would kill your thesis :)
Vote bazilisek I absolutely don't have a clue yet. Btw: My Role is: School Nurse
This post already struck me as scummy or an incredible townie gambit. Why did he claim? He had 0 votes on him. It smacked of a panicked move there just because a finger was pointed his way. But if you look at the other bit of the post #299, this question arises: Why didn't he vote immediately but had to wait for prompting, before then voting his other main suspect, which also happened to be on nmillar's list? If he only had one other main suspect it should have been automatic.
A possible reason was that they are scumpartners but he didn't want to encourage the wagon, but figured once nmillar called him out that it was better to gain town cred for himself, since Typhoon's wagon was deflating and there was no other wagon for miles, so he hopped onto the convenient bandwagon. IF true, this is
bussing.
Also note here that in #297 Ubi says we'll find out if Typhoon is innocent by tomorrow, and in #299 suddenly he has "knowledge of Typhoons innocence". It could be just a phrasing thing (especially since other people have been mislynched in other games for such things ><) or language thing, but nonetheless suspicious phrasing.
Anyway that made him the 4th person to jump onto the bandwagon. Nice and secure in the middle.
Lastly, Ubivis says in
#226 that:
Ubivis: - bazilisek: Already explained, I am just not convinced yet, that he is Mafia
when he was giving his reads. He mentions in #238 when he votes Typhoon that "I think Typhoon is more suspicious than bazilisek", when commenting on the two big bandwagons at the time. But I don't see at what point between #226, and #284/#299 when he claims both are suspicious/his main suspects, that his read on baz changes.
tl;dr All this is partly an extension of what others have mentioned already abouyt voting patterns. I don't know yet if that all together makes him scum, but I propose that
if bazilisek flips scum, pay very close attention to Ubivis. They have been voting as a bloc together all game, and Ubivis passed on voting baz when there was a bandwagon on him, instead staying with no vote between his #181 unvote on Zchinque, and #238 vote on Typhoon, so he did not think baz was vote-worthy suspicious before voting Typhoon. bazilisek had 3-4 votes on him in that time period and Typhoon had none until #235.
If they both turn out to be scum, lynch Azarr. His voting patterns have been for the exact same people, although it's a much weaker case.
Ok that's it. I'd say to lynch baz today anyway, for better or for worse. So my vote goes back to where it was:
vote bazilisek