Huinehtar: Maybe it's just me, but I am wondering until when people continuing to make their backlog grow will stop buying games, because they're tired of it or because they cannot afford it
RaggieRags: I'd think cheaper prices would cause more people to afford gaming.
I was thinking about people having a mega huge backlog (like > 500 unplayed games). If someone spent $500 in games that he/she hasn't played, he/she could think that it's a waste of money, and couldn't afford of spending more in unplayed games, since he/she has to focus on essential to him/her?
Huinehtar: or even worse: because they're thinking that since the price of games has begun decrease, games should be free (and I'm not talking about freesoftware), so people would want F2P only for ever?
RaggieRags: I see no indication of gamers (and I mean gaming hobbyists, not casuals) wanting to go F2P.
I agree, but gamers are mainly casuals, and since budgets are increasing, the number of devs and projects are increasing, even if the number of gamers is increasing, would the number of hobbyists enough to satisfy everyone?
Huinehtar: How many years until fans buying at full price will stop preventing ambitious games with moderate/big budgets to fall?
expensive[/i]!!! Wanting prices to be very low, and expecting ambitious projects to succeed are incompatible IMHO.
RaggieRags: Ambitious projects don't necessarily require big budgets. Fancy visuals do. How cheaper prices affect the AAA industry is hard to say (personally I don't really care) but I have a feeling people will be willing to pay more money for the Grand Theft Autos and Call of Duties as before.
I agree, when I was thinking about ambitious games, I wasn't refering to CoD or GTA, or any fancy game with same-as-old gameplay or storytelling or both. I was more refering to games like Torment: Tides of Numenera, The Banner Saga or The Long Dark. Graphics can be nice sure, but I am expecting of more games of that kind in 2013: more mature games with not only killing gameplays, with good storytelling or atmosphere, etc... More to games with a real huge Choices and Consequences' tree, allowing the player to explore, to use diplomacy, to fight if he/she has to, to spare life if he/she wants to. And these kinds of games need more budget than linear games with same deepness.
But if you look at KS statistics
here, more than 65% of gaming projects failed to succeed, and if IIRC budgets asking for more than $1M had an very low rate of success, compared to projects asking for less. I think it's a huge rate of failure.
If the "normal price" of games is so decreasing, as many people think that crowdfunding is a pre-order, I'm expecting many people to complain about the first pledge allowed to have the digital game (like
here). So what's next? Having starting pledge at the "
real value" of games of tomorrow, like what, $1 or $2? Sure, there could be more people pledging, but what about the total amount of pledges? What about the total amount of money asked?
So again, if budgets are increasing, if the number of devs is increasing, if the number of projects is increasing, if the price of games is decreasing, if the number of people is increasing, is that rate of increase of hobbyists (since they will always be in a minority) enough? I don't think so.
In the other hand, I disagree with people saying "the KS fatigue", because I think too that there'll still be people want to make projects to succeed.
But if you are a new developper with a small team and you have a great ambitious project, your chances of success of funding are tiny, and you will have to reduce your project to make it happen, hoping to make it happen many years later when you have got sufficient exposure, at best. Or you have to forget it, in the worst case.
What I'm afraid of, is that even crowdfunding games would be focused on what people already use to play, and on big names of the industry who would be the only ones to make ambitious games - if they dare be interested in.