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General discussionSecret Hitler 3 - Beyond Stardom!(800 posts)(800 posts)
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This is my favourite topic
Posted January 26, 2020
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RWarehall: I guess I'm making a decision, because we should get the game going.

I choose ZFR as President for the Special Election.

He should have a 80% chance to draw an L if all is reported correctly.
Due to my absence i didn't have a chance to discuss, but I like this selection. I would avoid ZFR as a chancellor by now, on the chance that his liberalness is due to him being Hitler. But I am fine with him being president, since I rather believe him to be liberal.

I guess the fascists are scene and micro.

Let's see whom ZFR nominates
Posted January 26, 2020
@ZFR I hope you're Liberal. You need a none Hitler pick. Its very likely Hitler was in the first 2 governments given we still haven't had a single conflict. Hitler typically silent drops in order to apear Liberal.

IMO this is the time when you choose someone who isn't currently in play using your own social reads.

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supplementscene: This is a fascist action. The Special Election was always ZFR

You're done this without consulting the table and it's your soft conflict who investigated Rager. So right now you either made a bad pick or it's all 3 of you in a fascist team
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RWarehall: Given I drew 3F, it's hard to blame GameRager for that...
You've been questioning every decision all game just looking for an excuse to seize control. Using every excuse under the sun and most of them make no sense at all, from quoting completely inaccurate odds to the poorest strategies that would gain us the least information. Even as 4Ls were going into play, you were complaining and passing shade.

Now you seem very very desperate because you know the cards are there. Top decking is dumb, top decking twice is even dumber when you are accusing people of already discarding Liberal policies from a deck that is already Fascist heavy.

There are exactly 12 cards in the deck this set. So we can be sure someone screwed it up if no one claims an L. Hold your horses. Or maybe you don't want us to be sure...hence your top decking suggestion.

I'll call it right now...2 of the 3 Fascists are in the Lift, Scene, Microfish group...
I mistakenly thought you'd nominated Rager as Special Election.

From your perspective if you did get 3 fascist policies, top deck is a good strategy, so:

A. Hitler doesn't get elected
B. If you believe Joe, that means top deck likely turns over a liberal policy.

However the time to top deck was probably at the start of this deck. Not after either yourself or Joe burried 1 or 2 L cards.

Personally I think theres 2 fascists in play because the odds of 3 fascist policies is very low. Its quite possible a fascist duo double dropped 2 Liberal policies. It's most likely Hitler silent dropped though. You should be suspicious of Joe from your own perspective.

ZFR seems least fascist so far though but I stated before - the Special Election isn't yours to choose it belongs to the table - you must discuss it. You didn't. You probably choose the most logical choice however

As for me throwing shade - I was the player who advocated skipping everyone who wasn't in the first 2 governments - that's the opposite of casting shade. That doesn't mean fascists aren't in play, it's very unlikely there aren't.
Posted January 26, 2020
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supplementscene: B. If you believe Joe, that means top deck likely turns over a liberal policy.

However the time to top deck was probably at the start of this deck. Not after either yourself or Joe burried 1 or 2 L cards.

Personally I think theres 2 fascists in play because the odds of 3 fascist policies is very low. Its quite possible a fascist duo double dropped 2 Liberal policies. It's most likely Hitler silent dropped though. You should be suspicious of Joe from your own perspective.

ZFR seems least fascist so far though but I stated before - the Special Election isn't yours to choose it belongs to the table - you must discuss it. You didn't. You probably choose the most logical choice however

As for me throwing shade - I was the player who advocated skipping everyone who wasn't in the first 2 governments - that's the opposite of casting shade. That doesn't mean fascists aren't in play, it's very unlikely there aren't.
Your insistence on top decking is weird. At the start of this deck, there are just 2 Ls in 12 cards, and you think THAT was the time to top deck? So if the 2 Ls are both between the 6th and 12th cards we lose...that is not a good strategy, especially not with a 4L to 1F lead. As it turns out, we very well might have had 6 Fs at the top of the deck. I know for a fact cards 4-6 were...

Even now, there are at most 2Ls and 4Fs, but the whole reason to top deck is you believe one has already been discarded meaning 1 in 6 left or a 50% chance we could top deck 3 times and lose. When there are this few Ls in play, you cannot rely on top decking, you have to try to put trustworthy people in as President to properly report the cards.

You seriously overestimate the chances of drawing Ls and top decking them are 3x less likely on any given draw!!!
Posted January 26, 2020
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supplementscene: B. If you believe Joe, that means top deck likely turns over a liberal policy.

However the time to top deck was probably at the start of this deck. Not after either yourself or Joe burried 1 or 2 L cards.

Personally I think theres 2 fascists in play because the odds of 3 fascist policies is very low. Its quite possible a fascist duo double dropped 2 Liberal policies. It's most likely Hitler silent dropped though. You should be suspicious of Joe from your own perspective.

ZFR seems least fascist so far though but I stated before - the Special Election isn't yours to choose it belongs to the table - you must discuss it. You didn't. You probably choose the most logical choice however

As for me throwing shade - I was the player who advocated skipping everyone who wasn't in the first 2 governments - that's the opposite of casting shade. That doesn't mean fascists aren't in play, it's very unlikely there aren't.
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RWarehall: Your insistence on top decking is weird. At the start of this deck, there are just 2 Ls in 12 cards, and you think THAT was the time to top deck? So if the 2 Ls are both between the 6th and 12th cards we lose...that is not a good strategy, especially not with a 4L to 1F lead. As it turns out, we very well might have had 6 Fs at the top of the deck. I know for a fact cards 4-6 were...

Even now, there are at most 2Ls and 4Fs, but the whole reason to top deck is you believe one has already been discarded meaning 1 in 6 left or a 50% chance we could top deck 3 times and lose. When there are this few Ls in play, you cannot rely on top decking, you have to try to put trustworthy people in as President to properly report the cards.

You seriously overestimate the chances of drawing Ls and top decking them are 3x less likely on any given draw!!!
If we had top decked the end of the last deck we are guaranteed to find out if someone dropped.

If we TD 4 times at the start of this deck and then played the most Liberal pairing we probably win. If you top deck 4 fascist policies you're more likely to get 2 Liberal in the hand so even if 1 player is Fascist a Liberal policy is often passed

Like I say it's quite possible 1 or 2 Liberal cards have been dropped, so there is no point in top decking at this stage of the game.
Posted January 26, 2020
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RWarehall: ...
Whom do you think I should pick?

Ditto for everyone else.

I'll post my thoughts after breakfast.
Posted January 26, 2020
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Microfish_1: ugh.

I would say that we should go with scene as I no longer trust any of those 4. Maybe I barely trust ZFR as chance, but if scene is F this is bad.
I no longer trust any of GR RW & Joe to be clean.
Lift seems cleaner than those three, so maybe Lift should be pres.
That was sudden....you seem to have gone from more trusting of those who went before to much less....why the sudden shift, if I may ask?

(Though to be fair I again agree with not trusting anyone but one's self when playing, so the shift is also somewhat understandable from my pov/preferential style of play)


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Microfish_1: Then again I know that Dawn Perry (me) is L, so i would be okay with being in gov.
Unless you are F, then it'd have bitten us big time.
=============================================================

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supplementscene: This is a fascist action. The Special Election was always ZFR

You're done this without consulting the table and it's your soft conflict who investigated Rager. So right now you either made a bad pick or it's all 3 of you in a fascist team
When are ya gonna get we're not all playing by your meta/table based style of play.....hence the actions, even if you find them suspect, are not necessarily indicators of those doing them being fascist.

(Pre post edit: I read Post 588 and know you mistook who was elected....my stance on your meta play & how you view others based on it still applies, though)

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supplementscene: ZFR seems least fascist so far though but I stated before - the Special Election isn't yours to choose it belongs to the table - you must discuss it. You didn't. You probably choose the most logical choice however
Show me the rule that says they must discuss it. You say the word must a lot in this game......I don't think you know what that means. o.0

Inb4 you or someone else says "inconceivable" ;)

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supplementscene: Like I say it's quite possible 1 or 2 Liberal cards have been dropped, so there is no point in top decking at this stage of the game.
Wait, didn't you say before that we SHOULD go to topdeck? Pick one or the other, my man.
Posted January 26, 2020
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ZFR: Whom do you think I should pick?

Ditto for everyone else.
Well I dunno who to pick, but here's who I think shouldn't be picked:

Me: I don't wanna flub it yet again, though it'd be nice if I got L if I was picked.

Joe: I dunno....his picking of me likely was just his choice and he might be liberal, but then he could've seen me as an easy pick(many were suspect of me it seems...though I could be wrong) to investigate and verify as Liberal so he could be seen as liberal by association.

Scene: His meta play seems a bit too tacked on....again this is likely just him being him, but it bothers me a bit due to his insistence on his play style even though most of us aren't playing that way.

Besides the above anyone else is fine.....though it's your call as always.

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ZFR: I'll post my thoughts after breakfast.
Lucky bastard....i'm still hungry....all Pooka gave me was some condiments via PM(as flavor text).
Posted January 26, 2020
I'm thinking you pick Joe. I don't trust Lift or Scene as they have been trying hard to appear Liberal. I don't trust Micro because he's in that 2-5-8 triangle Scene originally proposed, although I guess Joe is...

RedFireGaming is a 2nd option. If Joe had not checked GameRager, I was seriously considering RFG as a potential bypass of GameRager. Down side is even if RFG isn't Hitler, he can still be a Fascist. I'm not convinced we necessarily have a problem in the Core group. First 5 governments we passed 4L, and 4L is really the best you can expect from the first set of cards and that is without a Fascist interfering.

As such, for the reshuffle, with only 2L in the deck, it's not that long of odds to draw 6F to start.
Posted January 26, 2020
OK,

So my first thought was to actually pick one of the two Secret Hitler newbies: micro and RFG. Because it's their first Secret Hitler game and they never got to experience it properly. Feels a bit boring for them. Then I remembered that I was killed last 3 games on D1 and no one had any consideration for me. So screw that. If it's your first Secret Hitler game and you never got into government, I have three words for you: hahahahaha (x3).

Scene struck me as liberal early on, but now I'm not so sure about him. He made some odd comments lately, but I can't tell if they're alignment indicative. Also, last game he played pretty well as Hitler; I can't definitely say he isn't one now.

Lift is my top pick if I'm to go with someone new, outside the Big Four (the Biggest of whom is president, and two of whom are term-locked anyway). He struck me as most liberal of the outside group. Though of course he's also the most experienced, so it could be an act.

I think if Hitler was not one of our four, there would have been more pressure to get him into office by the Fascists. While Liberals win fairly often either by passing 5 policies or by executing H, Fascists usually win by getting the fuhrer as chancellor. It's rarely they win by policy-passing. So they knew they should try and get credibility for Hitler early on. Yet no one seems to have tried to do it.
... or did Micro try? Lately his posts seem to try to throw shade on the Four.

Joe doesn't seem vanilla fascist. Could he be Hitler? I suppose. Confirming GR so as not to enter into conflict. Passing FL to me as a President.

I'm not sure.
Posted January 26, 2020
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ZFR: OK,

(snip)

I'm not sure.
Westley at 1:36, and then again at 2:10
Posted January 26, 2020
@ZFR: well, as you said yourself, out of the big 4, Joe would be your only choice. GR and RW are term locked (@Pooka: please update the OP!). Hmmm. If you're not Hitler, he could be. Possible. But activating one of the non-tested players is dangerous too. Maybe Hitler hid in obscurity to try exactly that angle, when it became clear that it would be difficult to get in the first governments. "Let's not use one of the liberal seeming players. Hitler would seem liberal. So let's take someone who didn't get tested at all..." makes me uneasy too.

But if I'm your top pick, I would be happy to accept your chancellorship. Actually I would rather be chancellor myself than that you pick Joe. But any of the non-4 would probably say so. But I definitely would vote NO to any government involving Scene or Micro.
Posted January 26, 2020
All the actors and cast were sat at a large table. "Alright gentlemen. Choose an actor." Grimsby drew an arc on the dusty table.

Befuddled by the question, all of the actors pointed at themselves. "No no." Grimsby wagged his finger disapprovingly. "Choose an actor OTHER than yourselves."

The fingers pointed everywhere. Dawn and Xtreme were ignored. Scene pointed at two actors instead of one. The rest simply pointed at like four of the dudes. Grimsby threw an 8-face dice he got from his set of Dungeons & Dragons, and the number came up as 3. He looked at Roberts, who was pointing at Zenefredi.

"Next up for test screenings is Zenefredi!" Grimsby excitedly announced. Most of the table scratched their heads and looked at Grimsby in confusion, but they didn't question the wisdom (or lack thereof) of the giant man.
----

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ZFR: ...
ZFR is the Specially Elected President! He must nominate a chancellor.

...also the OP will be updated shortly.
Posted January 26, 2020
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ZFR: OK,

So my first thought was to actually pick one of the two Secret Hitler newbies: micro and RFG. Because it's their first Secret Hitler game and they never got to experience it properly. Feels a bit boring for them. Then I remembered that I was killed last 3 games on D1 and no one had any consideration for me. So screw that. If it's your first Secret Hitler game and you never got into government, I have three words for you: hahahahaha (x3).

Scene struck me as liberal early on, but now I'm not so sure about him. He made some odd comments lately, but I can't tell if they're alignment indicative. Also, last game he played pretty well as Hitler; I can't definitely say he isn't one now.

Lift is my top pick if I'm to go with someone new, outside the Big Four (the Biggest of whom is president, and two of whom are term-locked anyway). He struck me as most liberal of the outside group. Though of course he's also the most experienced, so it could be an act.

I think if Hitler was not one of our four, there would have been more pressure to get him into office by the Fascists. While Liberals win fairly often either by passing 5 policies or by executing H, Fascists usually win by getting the fuhrer as chancellor. It's rarely they win by policy-passing. So they knew they should try and get credibility for Hitler early on. Yet no one seems to have tried to do it.
... or did Micro try? Lately his posts seem to try to throw shade on the Four.

Joe doesn't seem vanilla fascist. Could he be Hitler? I suppose. Confirming GR so as not to enter into conflict. Passing FL to me as a President.

I'm not sure.
Consider the following, either 4 Liberals are in play (unlikely after 3 fascist policies are passed) or we have a silent dropper or 2. That means Hitler is very likely in the 4 players in play because otherwise a regular fascist would conflict to get Hitler into play.

Do you think I'm likely to be Hitler? Because you have the gun and get 2 shots at government here if you can pardon the pun.

I don't think Lift is Liberal, his chat strikes me as off. Although you've played more games with him that I have.

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Lifthrasil: @ZFR: well, as you said yourself, out of the big 4, Joe would be your only choice. GR and RW are term locked (@Pooka: please update the OP!). Hmmm. If you're not Hitler, he could be. Possible. But activating one of the non-tested players is dangerous too. Maybe Hitler hid in obscurity to try exactly that angle, when it became clear that it would be difficult to get in the first governments. "Let's not use one of the liberal seeming players. Hitler would seem liberal. So let's take someone who didn't get tested at all..." makes me uneasy too.

But if I'm your top pick, I would be happy to accept your chancellorship. Actually I would rather be chancellor myself than that you pick Joe. But any of the non-4 would probably say so. But I definitely would vote NO to any government involving Scene or Micro.
Good to know that Joe is your Hitler Lift. Why would Hitler be outside of the current set of player? The only possible way is if you think every player who's played is Liberal. Because fascists go into conflict to get Hitler in play.

Voting no to the most Liberal player is outing fascist btw.
Posted January 26, 2020
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supplementscene: Good to know that Joe is your Hitler Lift. Why would Hitler be outside of the current set of player? The only possible way is if you think every player who's played is Liberal. Because fascists go into conflict to get Hitler in play.
Good reason for thinking such, speculation, or casting shade on liberals?

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supplementscene: Voting no to the most Liberal player is outing fascist btw.
Who? You or Micro? If you...why should we think you liberal based on your claim alone?
Posted January 26, 2020
Also Lift says 45% chance that Joe got 3F, so is that the same odds for RWarehall or does it increase (I think it increases)

But 0.45 x0.45 = 20.25% chance that

So nearly 80% chance either Joe or RWarehall ditched. So given Joe investigated RWarehall as Lib that means 80% chance Joe is fascist

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supplementscene: Good to know that Joe is your Hitler Lift. Why would Hitler be outside of the current set of player? The only possible way is if you think every player who's played is Liberal. Because fascists go into conflict to get Hitler in play.
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GameRager: Good reason for thinking such, speculation, or casting shade on liberals?

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supplementscene: Voting no to the most Liberal player is outing fascist btw.
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GameRager: Who? You or Micro? If you...why should we think you liberal based on your claim alone?
Because the only way Hitler isn't in play is if ZFR, Rager, RWarehall and Joe are all Liberal.
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This is my favourite topic
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General discussionSecret Hitler 3 - Beyond Stardom!(800 posts)(800 posts)
(800 posts)