We know Lift is not Hitler, and at this point the safest bet is to nominate someone who's not Hitler as chancellor since the draw is going to be FFF. This is predicated on what ZFR has stated, and he's done nothing to make me doubt his word.

So I Nominate Lift as chancellor

The result of this round will be very interesting, hopefully Trent nominates soon and it's someone I don't consider a potential Hitler and I'll vote for as long as that's the case.

Hello Future Joe....is Navi out in September, how much does it cost and does it beat Vega 56 in benchmarks?

Regarding the game, there's allot of ifs and maybes there. If ZFR is Fascist. If Hitler is unelectable. If ZFR is Hitler.

OK then, so if I was a fascist ZFR I would probably nominate Hitler regardless and worst case is it gets shot down. Best case is he wins. Is Flub unelectable? Is SPF? Maybe as both are very lurky but with a fascist team and 2 unsuspecting Liberal votes it could pass and they win.

But you don't shoot either of Flubb or SPF imo. Because trying to shoot Hitler is a bad strategy anyway. We should be trying to get a confrimed Fascist unless we have a confirmed Hitler. ZFR should have shot you or Pooka imo.

Ultimately Lift's point is very solid. We need to eliminate confirmed fascists from the voting pool so that they have less influence. Shooting Hitler suspects isn't the best for our game chances

Well, believing that Lifthrasil made a slip and I had a chance at convincing anybody gave me some hope which gave me energy. Here's what I've come up with whilst obsessing over the game for the past 18 hours.

INTERJECTION - I just looked up who pushed for Lifthrasil's chancellorship in the 1st government. Trentonlf initially thought to nominate flubbucket, then maybe carr (now pooka) or primalform, so I was excited to see where the Lifthrasil suggestion came from, as I was certain it would be a F. It was blotunga. Then I was the first one to support it. Doh.

Though, of course, that's interesting in itself, if anyone cares to apply reason to it.

Also looked into how Lift got elected as Pooka's chancellor. Pooka said Lift seemed a good candidate based on several people saying he was trustworthy. (https://www.gog.com/forum/general/secret_hitler_2_everybody_is_a_star/post404), which is then supported by Blotunga (who adds that Pooka should hurry up and make the decision), mocked by flubbucket, shown non-support from Joe, ignored by everybody else, and Pooka makes the nomination. Again, not all that insightful and makes me wonder what the hell is going on with this game??

Huh. And before that blotunga was saying we should skip to lifthrasil's presidency and blotunga should be his chancellor. I agreed, saying that Lifthrasil/Blotunga or Lifthrasil/Trentonlf would make a good government. I think this is where Pooka got the idea that Lifthrasil was trustworthy from. Following that ZFR also recommends skipping Pooka and electing Lifthrasil. I can't see any other opinions on it, but please have a look yourselves. Then those three, Joe was the only one not to vote No.

Which doesn't help my cause at all.


Here's a table I've been working on.
PLEASE DON'T SIMPLY TAKE IT AT FACE VALUE.
Query, scrutinise, add to it.


Is Joe L?

- passed L policy as chancellor in 1st government.

- has given people an L feeling for much of the game.

- changes his mind. Uncertain.

- trying to solve the game. Has asked people to help think things through and apply reason.

- No allies. Presidency voted down by all other players. Negligible support in debate.

- Pooka is claimed to be F. Little to suggest Joe & Pooka team.

- ZFR, Lifthrasil, RTCVB are claimed to be F. Little to suggest ZFR, Lifthrasil, RTCVB & Joe team.

Is Lifthrasil L?

- passed two L policies. The second L policy under Trentonlf, and the 4th L policy under ZFR.

Is Lifthrasil F?

- passed FF on his presidency (possibly had no choice)

- tended to be placed on the F side of Joe/Lifthrasil before ZFthrasil government.

- thinks the game can be easily won: Has No doubt.

- hasn't attempted to work out who Joe's teammates are.

- has support from others. Member of 4 governments, has ZFR's trust among others.

- when questioned whether he had suspicion about ZFR, claimed "Well, a bit, of course, since I don't know his allegiance for sure." (post 1204) - doesn't sit right with me when a drunken four-year-old could have seen that Joe and ZFR are not on a scumteam. Did go on to say "But still I think that ZFR is liberal and that he indeed has a good enough reason. I just would like to know which that is. Hence my question." but the initial statement is still interesting. If he had said "no, thinking about it, I don't really have suspicions; there's no way ZFR can be F, but it's a strange thing to do" or "it seems impossible but I'm wondering if I'm being set-up" I would understand. As it is the opening statement is the sort of thing a liberal should say on paper.

Is Joe F?

- proclaimed F by lifthrasil after investigation.

- picked as ZFR's chancellor in first government without discussion.

- didn't support the ZFthrasil government which passed the 4th L

- ZFR claims his irrational and emotionally charged appeal against ZFthrasil government only makes sense as F.

- Shows support for flubbucket and blotunga.

- went against blotunga's plan to support Pooka's presidency: Pooka is now claimed to be F by ZFR.

- made it look like lifthrasil had claimed to know blotunga was L, when lifthrasil had actually said "if blotunga was L then..."

Okay I voted yes. Lifts voting record combined with Joe's misleading post yesterday makes Lift a much better bet than Joe right now despite Joe's pages of text.

Okay after replying to Joe below, noting his far greater participation this game and thinking about his question in his prior post 'is Hitler unelectable' it made me wonder, is Joe projecting? Is he Hitler? Worryingly though, it'd make it quite likely that ZFR would be Fascist. I mean Liberal ZFR could indeed randomly pick Hitler. Could my concern on day 1 have actually occurred? Why did ZFR kill Blotunga instead of the more likely Fascist Joe? Hmmmm

@Trent if we get FFF I think Joe should be executed because there's still a chance ZFR is fascist and Pooka is Liberal. If he is Joe is probably Hitler. If we get an L and Lift blocks your card, you should go for ZFR or Lift.

Lots of ifs and maybes there I realise.

Do those early game actions make you think Blotunga and/or Trent is scum? And Pooka is Liberal?

All of this analysis is based on the fact no player has backed you. Which could be because you are Liberal so your teammates have no idea of your alignment. However there are Mafia Strategies called 'Distancing' and 'Busing'. So if you were Fascist your teammate doesn't obviously want to support you. If you are exposed they definitely don't want to support you because it reveals their alignment. So they then 'Bus you'. Which means if you are Scum they may even have a fascist or 2 building their own profile by ganging up on you.

This level of re-reading and analysis does make me wonder if you are Liberal or a Desperate Hitler? You haven't made this level of effort in past games.

There is another strong reason for me why I think Lift is L (and by extension you're F), which trumps other reasons. I think scum!Lift would have the guts to smoothly pass the 4th L, but this one doesn't fit:

Confirmed-scum-Pooka selected him as his partner when he knew he was passing an F.
No way a scum would select a fellow scum to get him tainted at this stage.

The only counter-argument is that Pooka made a newbie's blunder. But he has proven to be an intelligent player; I don't think he would.

If that's true why didn't Pooka taint Lift?

If you think that Joe being Hitler makes me "quite likely fascist", then you're essentially saying that:
I as a fascist (being in the top trusted position after passing two L governments), during a confrontation between liberal!Lift, (who was among the bottom trusted position having passed two F governments), and hitler!Joe, selected liberal Lift as my chancellor, cleared him by purposely testing him, thus ensuring Liberal Lift rises to the top trusted position and a 4th L gets passed in the process. Then went on a smear campaign against Joe.

What do yo think?

A) He didn't want to get into conflict with Lift, who at the time was in a decent position having just been part of an L government.

B) He did indeed draw FFF. He couldn't taint L by claiming he passed an L to to Lift, because that lie would be quickly exposed should the L be drawn be the next government.

You're right, my theory doesn't work under that context. If Joe is Hitler and you are fascist you would of elected Joe instead of Lift to position Hitler into power.

So you and Joe are either on different teams or both Liberal. With the level of effort Joe is putting in beyond what he normally does, I still tend to think he's either Hitler or Liberal. So perhaps you randomly picked Hitler, who knows. Or maybe he's a regular Fascist and just has more time on his hands.

I've said numerous times to Joe that I don't know why he'd suspect you if he was truly Liberal because nominating Hitler or a Fascist would make far more sense for a fascist in round 1.

That kind of makes sense and he did get another run in government off the back of it so it worked out for him.

And if you truly know Pooka is scum that increases your confidence in Lift by association.

Yup. I knew there was something I'd forgotten. I'll add it to the list.

Interestingly enough, I was just puzzling over the same thing. See what you think:




If ZFR's F and not H, then the game hasn't ended because H is unelectable, so who is that?



2. Tap-Happy Trent - maybe difficult as he was Joe's nomination, but this choice was partly made by democracy, and can easily be overlooked.
3. Apollo "Prime Form" Jones - easy to elect I reckon.
6. Supple Scene - unelectable?
8. RT-CB (v.3.2) - electable.
9. Flub. - unelectable
10. Captain Sapphire - unelectable

So H is flub or supplementscene. (I'm eliminating Joe).

I'm making the assumption that ZFR is F based on his own argument.

If Pooka is F, why would he have picked Lifthrasil as his chancellor?

:- if Lifthrasil is F, Pooka can't be F

:- if Pooka can't be F, ZFR is F.

HOWEVER as I'm writing this the flaws are standing out.



ZFR, Pooka's government was under pressure when he joined the game. If he valued getting in government over making-himself-and-his-team-look-good, might he not be tempted to go for someone who he thought stood a strong chance of getting him elected, no matter who that person was?

Also bearing in mind that it's his first action in his first game, and that he might not have a strong understanding of the set-up as it stands.

This is a tricky thing for me, as, on the face of it, your argument that Lift & Pooka are not both F makes sense. Either the argument has a flaw, or Pooka is not F.

Pooka being F explains why Pooka still trusts Lifthrasil over Joe, after having proof that you are F,

and explains Lifthrasil's initial reaction to your nomination of Pooka. Actually there are many things that explain that forget about that one.

scene was electable. I mentioned him as a possibility a few times.

Huh. Then I'm left with the still-hilarious flubbucket-is-ZFR's-H theory. Assuming ZFR's F. Which I might not be assuming no longer. See below.


ZFR, I know there's no real answer to this question, but why didn't flubbucket come up as a possible execution target?
My support of the flubz had not been subtle.


APOLOGIES FOR WRITING LOADS
I know it's draining and doesn't make it easy to follow, and even harder to agree with, but there's lots that doesn't make sense and needs solving. Please forgive me, and if you can, try and stay with me.

I would be dominating less if I weren't forced to do it all by myself


More on the might-F-pooka-have-enchancellorated-F-lifthrasil? debate:

the table was 3L 0F at that point.

The F team wanted to prevent 4L 1F by the time the re-shuffle came round. If that was building a government of two Fs then that was how it had to go.

Remember, Blotunga, Joe and ZFR were all quite clear that Pooka's government should be skipped (If everybody wasn't so impatient to speed the game up we'd have forced others to take a stance as well). In that situation, an F might choose whoever they feel is most likely to get them in government?

And, as it happened, they passed an F.

and HANG ON A MINUTE who was the first out of the box declaiming "yes yes was bound to happen, they had no chance what with the cards that were in the pack, no need to think about this."?

RTCVB that's who.

I'm liking this theory more and more.





TABLE MARK II
Query, scrutinise, add to it.

Is Joe L?

- passed L policy as chancellor in 1st government.

- has given people an L feeling for much of the game.

- changes his mind. Uncertain.

- trying to solve the game. Has asked people to help think things through and apply reason.

- No allies. Presidency voted down by all other players. Negligible support in debate.

- Pooka is claimed to be F. Little to suggest Joe & Pooka team.

- ZFR, Lifthrasil, RTCVB are claimed to be F. Little to suggest ZFR, Lifthrasil, RTCVB & Joe team.

Is Lifthrasil L?

- passed two L policies. The second L policy under Trentonlf, and the 4th L policy under ZFR.

- made chancellor by Pooka in a government with high chance of getting FFF. ZFR claims Pooka is F.

Is Lifthrasil F?

- passed FF on his presidency (possibly had no choice)

- tended to be placed on the F side of Joe/Lifthrasil before ZFthrasil government.

- thinks the game can be easily won: Has No doubt.

- hasn't attempted to work out who Joe's teammates are.

- has support from others. Member of 4 governments, has ZFR's trust among others.

- when questioned whether he had suspicion about ZFR, claimed "Well, a bit, of course, since I don't know his allegiance for sure." (post 1204) - doesn't sit right with me when a drunken four-year-old could have seen that Joe and ZFR are not on a scumteam. Did go on to say "But still I think that ZFR is liberal and that he indeed has a good enough reason. I just would like to know which that is. Hence my question." but the initial statement is still interesting. If he had said "no, thinking about it, I don't really have suspicions; there's no way ZFR can be F, but it's a strange thing to do" or "it seems impossible but I'm wondering if I'm being set-up" I would understand. As it is the opening statement is the sort of thing a liberal should say on paper.

Is Joe F?

- proclaimed F by lifthrasil after investigation.

- picked as ZFR's chancellor in first government without discussion.

- didn't support the ZFthrasil government which passed the 4th L

- ZFR claims his irrational and emotionally charged appeal against ZFthrasil government only makes sense as F.

- Shows support for flubbucket and blotunga.

- went against blotunga's plan to support Pooka's presidency: Pooka is now claimed to be F by ZFR.

- made it look like lifthrasil had claimed to know blotunga was L, when lifthrasil had actually said "if blotunga was L then..."

Ah, turns out he did make an appearance. Ah well.


Good thing I have a new theory to consider!

Let me think... hmmm... I don't know... Maybe because I had a choice of a confirmed-fascist Pooka, a very-probable-fascist-Joe, and a cleared-by-confirmed-fascist blotunga?

I didn't consider anyone else. flub wasn't singled out here.

Well, maybe a tiny piece of rtcvb was there on the table too.

STOP THINKING ABOUT THAT IMMEDIATELY THAT IS OLD NEWS.

Start thinking over how Pooka's government was threatened and Lifthrasil was a popular choice.