Yes, you did.

However, as for shooting: if we, by accident, get a Liberal, that's bad for us. It's one less vote for our cause. So I would prefer if you shot a confirmed Fascist. I get it that Pooka isn't dangerous anymore and he is confirmed NOT Hitler. So let him live. But I think it would be better to shoot Joe. He still has a non-vanishing Hitler probability and no danger of accidentally shooting a Liberal. I think the chances of getting one of the remaining Fascists is high with one out of flubb, rtcvb or blotunga. However, the last one only makes the list because Joe pushed for making him Chancellor after 3F. Which might be distraction or just an attempt to get flubb into office. And rtcvb acted quite Hitlery. So if you shoot an unknown, I would vote for rtcvb. But I would prefer to shoot the known Fascist Joe.

Assuming blotunga's L:

conflict between F and L in-theory removes two from the pool, making the game 3F v 5L, where the Ls have more control. However in practice the F gets put into another government and passes an L making the game 4F & 5L versus Joe. Pooka wouldn't have known that though.

Or, to think of it another way: why would scum!lifthrasil pass the 4th L policy? Some questions have no logical answer.


Assuming blotunga's F:

I guess this one's straightforward. But if blotunga's F then lifthrasil would have deliberately skipped his government, so I still don't think he is.



I don't see how an F in ZFR's position wouldn't have nominated H-bomb. So ZFR's not F. Unless he's the man himself. fuck. I wanted this to be simple...


Can we please consider how lifthrasil managed to have some doubt about ZFR's alignment? I don't see how an L lifthrasil would have been able to say that. ZFR's just mocked Pooka for the same reasons.

I've been thinking about it for some time now. You're right. You have no motives to do what you outlined as a fascist. You would as Hitler. It makes perfect sense for you to stay away as far as possible from the fascist Joe, and support the Liberal Lift, the one who ousted Fascist Joe.

Your play also checks in just fine. Up until my chancellorship, you had passed L policies. I am surprised the fascists didn't push to place you as chancellor yet. Maybe the final government is your true debut?

However, in my case, you had seen the chance to push for plausible deniability. You had already warmed up to a liberal earlier and gained more trust, and your enacted L policies spoke in your favor. But now that the game's one L away from concluding, you couldn't afford a Liberal win anymore, and you had just the victim to blame.

At this point, it doesn't matter who you shoot. It's not going to be a fascist, and definitely can't be yourself. I suppise the only thing I can ask for is not to kill me or Lift - the two confirmed non-Hitler players.

Also - No way am I getting poofed out of the room without a fight. If I'm going down ZFR's getting a super-sapphire-beam to the reproductive system.

If you've had ZFR confirmed as a liar, what does that suggest to you about some of the other players?

In any order

I think ZFR could've nominated anyone and we would've voted yes, except for Joe.

Now let's do a recap of the governments so far:
1. ZFR/JOE - claimed LLF passed L, 24% chance, 75% for a L draw. (Yes votes: zfr, trent, lift, blo, rtcb, flub, joe)
2. Trent/Lift - claimed LFF passed L, 67% odds (Yes votes: zfr, trent, spf, blo, lift, scene, rtcb, flub, joe)
3. SPF/ZFR - claimed LLF passed L, 14.55% odds, 66% odds of a L draw (Yes votes: zfr, spf, pooka, scene, rtcb, flub, joe)
4. Pooka/Lift - claimed FFF passed F, 62.5% odds (Yes votes: trent, spf, pooka, lift, scene, rtcb, flub, joe)
5. Lift/Blo - claimed FFF passed F, 40% odds (Yes votes: zfr, trent, pooka, lift, scene, blo, rtcb, flub)
6. Scene/ZFR - voted down (yes votes: zfr, spf, pooka, lift, scene)
7. Blo/Flub - voted down (yes votes: trent, blo, flub, joe)
8. Rtcb/zfr - claimed FFF passed F, 38% odds (Yes votes: zfr, trent, spf, pooka, lift, scene, blo, rtcb, joe)
9. ZFR/Lift - claimed LLF passed L, 21% odds, 76% odds of a L draw (yes votes: zfr, trent, spf, pooka, lift, scene, blo, rtcb)
10. Flub/Blo - voted down (yes votes: spf, flub, joe)
11. Joe/Trent - voted down (yes votes: -)
12. ZFR/Pooka - claimed LFF passed F, 50% odds (yes votes: zfr, trent, spf, pooka, lift, scene, blo, rtcb, flub)

If ZFR is scum, we're in deep trouble.

If ZFR's F, why would he lie about passing an L?

- to discredit pooka - didn't need doing.
- to hide a missing L - rtcvb might have lost one, doesn't seem worth it.
- for the lulz - doubt it.


any thoughts anyone?

Well this sucks, I was hoping to come in here to see the game over and most of us congratulating ourselves on a victory instead of the game continuing with more confusion.

Since someone is lying between ZFR and Pooka it looks like one of them is for sure a Fascist, and possibly both. There’s the chance that ZFR and Pooka are both Fascist and they are coming across at odds to make it seem like one of them is Liberal to keep a Fascist hidden. I hope this is not the case because I think that would mean ZFR is probably Hitler and he’s been the one person most have seemed to trust. I’m finding it hard to see that as the case though from ZFR’s play this whole game.

This makes me wonder though about Blotunga. If Pooka really is Fascist why did he “confirm” Blotunga as Liberal? Did he do it to keep Hitler hidden or just to gain Blotunga’s trust?

*sigh* I don’t know who is what anymore. From the way things look right now I would say shoot either Pooka, Blotunga, or Joe.


How do you know it’s not going to be a Fascist?

So if pooka and lifthrasil are F team, who are the other two?


rtcvb still likely, though not as certain if I'm assuming ZFR's not FR. If I had time to read I'd look over pooka's election again. (and cringe over Joe falling for pooka's 'but it's my first game!' tactic.) Anybody got time?

I made a spreadsheet with the votes so far and here are some interesting conclusions:
rtcb voted yes for all passed governments, but against all voted downs - seems to be going with the crowd (prime Hitler candidate for me)
scene/zfr was voted down because of me basically
blo/flub I probably blundered nominating flub, but rtcb had Hilter vibes and I wanted to confirm/test someone if possible

Amongst the F passing governments only trent, pooka, lift, scene and rtcb voted for all of them. Assuming some coordination between scum, we can't dismess this combination.
Joe and spf voted against lift/blo (with a high chance of 3F)
zfr and me voted against pooka (same high chance, I got investigated).

As for the L passing governments, only zfr, trent and rtcb voted on all of them.
Pooka voted only for one.

What worries me is that my conclusions of this analysis are towards zfr being scum, in trio with rtcb, lift and either trent or scene. Though why would a scum ZFR confirm a liberal lift. Also why has zfr then voted against the pooka/lift combo.

What? How? You just listed the governments and ZFR passed 3 of the 4 L we have on the table now. Including the quite crucial 4-th one. That would be a bit much even for a Hitler. And shouldn't a Hitler-ZFR try to become Chancellor instead of repeatedly being President? No, I think with his track record, ZFR is very unlikely to be Fascist. It's much more likely that Pooka is the Fascist and that he cleared you to buddy up to you, if you're Liberal. Or he cleared you because you are Fascist too or even Hitler.

Just to complete my proof before commenting on all the other stuff people posted.

I've proven I can't be scum. I'll prove I can't be Hitler. If I were Hitler why would I create conflict with you now? I could easily say I passed FFF which would be believable since rtcvb could be easily accused of hiding it. Aside from some crazy WIFOM conspiracy gambit on my part, why would I do it?

No, my friend, as the game progresses we get infor, and from the info available it's so easy to see who's the scum from the two of us.

@blotunga, thanks for the analysis.

*sigh* There is a meta-reason I don't want to execute Joe. Of all people here, he hasn't uttered once a complaint about this game and has been very involved in it. Even when odds stacked against him. He gave deep analysis, posted a lot.
I'll feel like a heel for kicking out someone who's enjoying the game.

Then again, I can't not do what's best for us to win because of such a thing.

Before I make a decision, can you do two things:

1) Given that Pooka is proven non-Hitler scum (or if by chance you still have doubts about it, assume it's true), what do you think of his investigation of blotunga?
He went with the consensus on whom to investigate, though the consensus wasn't strong and he did have wiggle room without arising suspicions. So what do you think a scum given the game state at the time do in his situation?
(an idea struck me: His investigation was done to check whom to go next with. If he has hidden the last L, he might have investigated and "cleared" a liberal so that the liberal goes to government and is stuck with FFF; without realizing that by the time blotunga does it, the cards would be reset. Very weak argument though...)

2) Do you think Joe is Hitler? You know he's fascist, but given the way he played all along, do you think he's H? I need you to be honest with yourself here.


=======================================================

Now, I've thought a bit: could Lift be the fascist? Or more specifically, would Lift fascist pass the 4th F?

And I've reached the conclusion that: Yes, it's possible.

Let's assume for the sake of argument Lift is fascist. Putting myself in his shoes when he received FL from me.
First of all, he doesn't know I discarded a second L. In fact he has more reason to believe that if I did get LLF, I'd play it safe and give him LL. So he has reason to think there are still two Ls left in play.
"So", he reasons, "If I pass the F, Joe gets confirmed and the next two governments are Joe's and ZFR's for their win. Plus, ZFR gets execution powers and he might hit Hitler. I'm going to risk it and pass the 4th L; discredit Joe and play it so ZFR chooses a fellow fascist as a chancellor."

Would a newbie fascist player in that situation do it? No. He'd never risk passing a 4th L. But scum!Lift has good experience and definitely has the intelligence and foresight to pull this off.

So, yes, scum!Lift could still pass the 4th L when tested.

But...

Two things don't fit

1) Joe's reaction. I'll admit I might have still suspected Lift even after passing the 4th L, but Joe's reaction pre-government, his inexplicable 180 degrees turn, really struck me as a fascist who realized he's in deep crap and was doing his best to prevent the government. I just don't see lib!Joe doing it. Lib!Joe would have known it's a good plan and went along with it.

2) Pooka's subsequent reveal as fascist bring's me back to my theorem. There is no way, barring a blunder on his part, that fascist!Pooka who knew that as President who's going to pass a fascist policy, is going to select a fellow fascist as his chancellor and tarnish him further.

So, Joe. The above is so you see I do try and consider all options. I don't take it for granted that you're fascist. But with all the above in mind, I just don't see Lift being anything but liberal.

I meant to write above: "Now, I've thought a bit: could Lift be the fascist? Or more specifically, would Lift fascist pass the 4th F?"

I never said ZFR is hitler. I said that RTCB is Hitler. And this was just a voting analysis, taking no other factors into account. Still I cannot dismiss it. Scum know who they are so they can coordinate voting (one says I will vote no, the others follow), liberals don't have that.