Yo, your last post is showing "3 days ago". Please return to the game.

Not paying any attention and not posting is my schtick, and I'm not sharing!!

Really Lift? Of all people, you'd think an experienced player could see the value in a fascist passing a 4th L in order to not have most of the team blackballed for the rest of the game. Especially when there are only 2 L cards available in the next 4 elected governments, meaning at least 2 of them will be 3F and all they have to do is have just one fascist in the remaining two governments to go 4 straight. You are acting like liberals can just take it easy.

I guess that means you can come up with a decent explanation for why fascists would be trying to convince everyone to vote for Dedo and Brasas (who happen to be liberals) for the 3.6% chance they both draw 3Fs? Since that seems to just make so much sense...but that seems to be what Brasas and Scene and Dedo are implying. That somehow 3 experienced players in ZFR, Adalia and I pushed for this without thinking (even though I was the one posting the odds!!!)

Maybe you need to provide some explanation for your one-sided attacks and tunnel-visioned analysis as you now try to declare Brasas clear based on one passed policy and Dedo clear where his only action was to pass a Fascist policy?

Your play this game, and your analysis leaves a lot to be desired this game. You seem to be mis-analyzing situations with regularity. Earlier you were trying to clear people because you didn't think there was any chance fascists would ever choose a liberal as chancellor.

All-in-all, you have been extremely quiet this game and when you provide analysis it is always incomplete, trying to clear or condemn people for one action, and just one angle off that action and seemingly without any real doubt. Just like Scene, and just like Dedo, and just like Brasas. None of you have ever even attempted to discuss the whole picture. Why is that?

So you want my analysis of Greek? Well, it's still possible he did so to protect his team if Brasas is fascist which also keeps him undercover and good to bury one L next turn. Especially if that means a fascist gets to be your chancellor and we start electing fascist presidents after that.

But I think the more likely situation is that you Lift are the secret Hitler and as an experienced player have been trying to shade the game in a way favorable to your side. You are too quiet this game and your analysis seems a lot poorer than you usually give for your Town game. You talk above about keeping in mind that 3-0 (almost - Brasas) unanimous vote, yet here you are ignoring it again. Are you afraid Greek might try to lock you out of the government and you want to stay on his good side? Are you angling to be a chancellor candidate after 3F by taking advantage of the less experienced players? What is your game?

1. Really? One-sided attacks? Just because I question you? First: questions aren't attacks, but that you take them as such says a lot about you. Second: I specifically kept the possibility in mind that Greek is Fascist/Hitler, but now after 4-1 it looks much less likely. That you accuse me of tunnel vision, when you choose to see preferably scumminess in someone who already passed 3L shows a lot of tunnel vision on your part. Third: read again. I did not declare dedo as clear. That you accuse me of doing so is an (intentional?) mis-representation on your part.

2. Again, really? We were, for the most part of the game, following strategies that I suggested. And we are at 4-1. I think that only leaves 'a lot to be desired' if you are fascist.

3. Yes, I am quiet. I hold back and watch you and Scene attacking each other and wait for fascists to get desperate and more aggressive as we get closer to 5L and you do seem quite desperate right now. Perhaps your fight with Scene was only staged? As for not discussing the whole picture, I really don't see that accusation as valid. On the contrary, I provide the second half to your one-sided analysis.

4. No, I'm not secretly Hitler. But yes, I am trying my best to 'shade' the game favourable to my side. And my side is leading quite significantly, so it seems to be working.

5. actually no. I'm angling to be Chancellor in the next government. I.e. the one that has 1F and 4L on the table and has a 45% chance of ending the game.

I agree that no one is cleared 100%, but Greek is close and Brasas looks much more liberal currently than you. And much less desperate. Scene's disappearance looks strange and I wonder if it is RL interfering or if he is frustrated with how the game is going for his side - and his reaction isn't to get more desperate but to disappear. Possible. But who knows.

2 experienced players and ZFR.

Don't play dumb, love. You ain't fooling no one.

Killed it with that double negative!

Again tunnel-vision...
Funny how you accuse me of dodging one of your questions but conveniently have failed to respond to mine...
For example, how you seem to conveniently overlook how silly it would be to push for Dedo and Brasas if we are fascists and know they are liberals hoping for the 3.6% chance they both draw all Fs...I did change my vote to Dedo which made others do the same. Do you want to explain how that makes sense for a fascist who would be president next knowing Dedo is a liberal?

Oh wait...now you seem to be trying to take credit for going the Dedo direction...

Appeal to Emotion (AtE) = a logical fallacy. This is what fascists do...

"I hold back and watch you and Scene attacking each other and wait for fascists to get desperate and more aggressive as we get closer to 5L and you do seem quite desperate right now."

See how this works? There is no actual content to the statement. Just a straight appeal to emotion claiming desperation equals faction. One can find a whole lot of similar comments from Scene, Dedo and even Brasas. All of the comments about ZFR "having a meltdown", classic (AtE). To the last couple liberals. THINK! Consider all of the possibilities. And be careful of the people trying to deceive you with Appeals to Emotion.

If you don't see how Brasas might benefit by passing a liberal policy as a fascist in that situation, you aren't thinking hard enough. If you can't see how a fascist Hitler Lift would be worried about getting locked out of future chancellorships or might be worried he doesn't get to be in government 2 times in a row, you aren't thinking hard enough.

The converse of this, is consider that maybe it's just Scene and Dedo with either say Kusu or Blotunga as a partner which makes Brasas a liberal all along. Consider that maybe it is Greek, who thought as Hitler, he wants to avoid a dispute with Brasas so he can be sure to get to his turn where he can discard a liberal card secretly and maintain his cover. If you are closing these options in your mind, then you are not thinking.

Again, to all other liberals, I see two situations that are telling...

1) Why did the Lift/Greek government pass unanimously (with the exception of Brasas and his "No" policy) and without any discussion whatsoever when the fascists knew the result would get them behind 3-0?

2) Why would I (and others) be pushing for going Dedo and Brasas as fascists if they are liberals knowing they are 96.4% likely to be able to pass a liberal policy?

As you consider who makes sense as your scum teams, you need to figure out how this makes sense with the above as well as the actions taken by each player in the game. Don't dismiss options out of hand and assume people are liberal just because they passed a liberal policy or visa versa. Don't trust other people to do all the thinking for you. Because there are 4 people in this game who are trying to confuse you.

1) I don't know. I don't know what the fascists were thinking - and maybe neither did they. They can't coordinate. Maybe it was a mistake and each one thought to hide in the crowd and let the others do the 'NO' voting. Yes, you got me thinking that Greek might be the Hitler, before the last government. But I don't think he would have passed that liberal policy even as as fascist. He didn't need to. Not even as Hitler. Sure, he might be taking that 'play like a liberal' principle to the extreme, but that would be a big risk for the fascists at this point.

2) It's still possible that Dedo is fascist. I didn't deny that. If you would read what I write completely and not only selectively, you would have noticed that by now. So yes, perhaps the fascists (maybe including you) voted yes because there was one fascist in the government. But I don't think it's Brasas.

What I still do see, however, being aware that you will try to attribute that to tunnel vision is you getting agitated and making up reasons against the Greek/me combination. You know what the only two remaining plays are for the fascists, if Greek is a liberal? Either they try to make up liberal seeming reasons to vote no (what you are doing currently), or they stay quiet and trust in that 54% chance of Greek drawing 3F.

1) Yeah, like really? Your thinking, the fascists just didn't have a plan at all and the non-plan they had backfired on them. You should listen to yourself...

2) A lot of people leading up to Brasas' decision felt he could go either way as a fascist, including Greek. Why is it after he chooses a liberal policy that now he's strongly liberal? What changed exactly?

And to your ancillary...I don't think anyone is going to oppose that government. Those who believe in Greek believe we have a 45% chance to expose you as Hitler when you are forced to dispute him.

What I am thinking is that you are hoping you don't have to reveal yourself based on the 55%. Your path to victory is burying both liberal cards by making sure each government has at least one fascist in it which guarantees 4 straight fascist policy wins assuming you cannot convince someone to take a chance on you as chancellor.

Let me guess your government preferences for the next 4 governments:
1) Greek/Lift - where you are ready to sabotage it as necessary.
2) Lift/anyone where you then hand pick someone for your special election.
3) Your special election choice.
4) Since obviously you cannot trust ZFR or I, you will push it to Dedo who you are now trusting so much more.
5) And if your special election gets voted down, you go to ol' trusted Brasas for the 4th, right?

And when you do, the last two governments assassinate liberals where we won't even get a chance to choose a government because it will be 4 to 4. So that even if we agree, we will be stuck voting no for the cards with a 1 in 8 chance to get the last liberal policy.

And since Brasas knows you would be Hitler, doesn't that provide him a little extra incentive to keep the charade going with pushing a liberal policy?

Ahem, if I am government with Lift and I draw FFF, isn't the best play to investigate Lift? In this case, if people trust me, they will trust my investigation and things will clear about Lift in any case.

That is an interesting idea. Although I'm sure if you find him fascist, he'll just claim you are setting him up. But at least we'd be forced into a dispute which gives us options. That doesn't sound like a bad plan.

I agree. That makes sense.

You got it partially - apart from the snide remarks.

1) is obvious. 45% chance that the game ends.
2) better chance, that the game ends (7F 2L left --> 58% chance that I draw L and that the game ends, if I have a liberal chancellor)
3) would probably be Greek again, 4F2L left --> 80% chance that Greek draws L
4) will probably not be necessary.

It is by the way quite funny how you now focus on me as your 'scum of the day', because I was the one to question you. When scene attacked you, you were all over him for being scummy and I'm sure the next person who asks you a critical question will be seen as scum too, by you. IF you are liberal then you really need to take a step back, draw a deep breath, calm down and have a critical look at those hiding in silence. Asking you critical questions is not a sign of scumminess, no matter how much you wish for it to be. But if you are scum, I totally understand that you are irritable. In that case: carry on.

You know Lift, at least as I read it, you have been giving bad advice all game. Even starting with your first "information" post #125, where you are saying "Scene has a very high probability to be liberal" just for passing one liberal policy. I've mentioned the downside to a fascist passing a fascist policy day 1 assuming a liberal president (namely that you are giving a liberal an investigation).

Furthermore, "greek probably is liberal too, but with a lower degree of certainty" based on the first play. Is rather funny since I'd imagine it's actually easier for a fascist to pass a bad policy 1st turn as president since they get the added benefit of eating an investigation.

This is rather funny considering, you contradict yourself in your next post #141 where you state...
"Fascists sometimes DO enact Fascist policies in the first round. Especially if the President is a Fascist"

That seems to be in direct contradiction to your "very high probability to be liberal" for Scene when you basically admit that it is less likely a fascist chancellor will pass a fascist policy first turn.

Then in #144 you are the first to pass shade on ZFR...

Just saying, it did not escape me about all of your early "guidance" playing the part of the expert telling the rest of us how we should think. I've had my eye on you ever since that 3-0 vote, but waited until crunch time to talk about my suspicions. It was too early to discuss Hitler options too much.

As to Greek, given he's the other side of the coin, I did question him deeply. While I didn't like his "trap" for Brasas as he claims to have tried to convince him to vote liberal anyway (because liberals shouldn't lie or deceive), his explanation solidly fits his actions. I was not expecting such a good explanation for his tunneling. He passed the test, so far you do not.

You seem awfully eager to dismiss the significance of two key votes and seem rather unwilling to budge for "some reason".

@Lift, consider a hypothetical situation where Brasas is fascist and Greek is Hitler

Scenario A - the current situation (4L-1F)

The next government is Greek and you. No one will question in any way if F passes. After all it's a greater than 50% chance that president gets FFF. Whom should the next president kusu choose? Brasas the "probably liberal" of course. If they pass a fascist vote and it's his word against kusu's he's much more believable. After all, he passed an L vote making it 4-1, while kusu is a hidden fascist making a last frantic attempt. And if Greek has hidden an L policy, then there is a good chance kusu gets FFF anyway.
Now it's 4-3, and we have to be extremely careful not to select Hitler. So "quite surely liberal" Greek, who has passed 3L policies and even made it 4-1 is the best choice, right? Right?


Compare with:
Scenario B - Brasas+Greek passed F policy last hand (3L-2F)

Brasas, and dedo and scene are all exposed. Whether we believe them or not, they're not likely to take parts in any more governments. The next government Greek + you, greek can pass an F policy, but it's less believable now since chances of FFF are smaller. It's 3-3, but Greek is much less likely to be chosen as chancellor now, not with the suspicions around him. He'd have an extremely tough time getting the votes from liberals (and fascists voting for him cause him to be exposed even more).

So here is a question for you, Lift: which of these scenarios is better for our hypothetical fascist Brasas and Hitler Greek? And don't you think they're quite likely to have taken the above into account when choosing their last policy?

@ZFR: OK, put like that it actually makes sense. So yes, I agree, the combination dedo+Brasas fascists and Greek=Hitler is still possible. But what would you propose how to proceed? My suggestion would still be stick to the plan and then if Greek passes me 2F and says that he drew 3F, we talk about options. At that point we would still not be in the Hitler-win area.

But keep in mind an alternate scenario: Brasas+greek are all Liberal. So the next planned government will be L+L (since I am Liberal too). You know what fascists would have to do in such a situation? Raise doubts about the most liberal-rated players. Break up the block of consecutive liberal governments, otherwise they don't have any chance of winning this game. And then take a look at what RW is doing, quite desperately so.

You raise similar concerns, valid points actually, in a much calmer fashion. Now the question is: are you just the better scum-player who stays calm in a situation like this? Or are you an actual liberal worried about a possible well-coordinated play between the fascists (who don't have a night-chat to coordinate by the way). Of course nothing is ever 100% sure in this game, so at least I play it partially by feeling, since every read is tainted by WIFOM. And right now RW feels desperate and very, very scummy. A liberal in the current game-state, which is quite favourable for us liberals, would not have any reason to be that aggressive.