Vote Count

Micro 5 - Joe, agent, trent, yogs, Caesar
Flocke 2 - joppo, Lift
yogs 1 - Micro

Everyone else - 0
Not voting - everyone else

13 Players. Takes 7 to lynch.

Micro is closest at L-2

When you see a vote count, please take a moment to make sure your name is against the correct person.

side note - this is not helpful

Please list everyone out

thanks in advance

I list them when they become less than half

That is probably true, but I don't see why specifically there is any basis for its truth other than the fact that a subset of roughly a bit more than 1/3 of the 13 players may contain an element of a group that we suspect has three or even four members. If we were to pick people randomly for both groups... crap I forgot how to calculate that. Way too long since I had to use statistics. The point is, it's a fairly good chance that your assertion is true but it would be so with any random picks. I can't see how it will help us narrow down the pool of suspects.

Also, while math is an interesting subject I am reminded of what poker players say about their game: half the game is math, but the other half is psychology. Knowing statistics can help you but the real good players are those that learn to decipher when the other player is bluffing and those that are able to induce an opponent to believe they are bluffing when they are not and vice-versa.

Now that you mentiont it, you're right. Cedric Diggory as a bodyguard taking the bullet meant for Harry? Fits perfectly.
Percy Weasley a Innocent child? Maybe ZFR saw a link between the character and the role, but I'm not seeing it.

Yesterday you also gave some sort of "mark my last words" warning where you said that Pooka would be a prime suspect once you flip town. Yet today he is barely a blip in your scumreads.
So why should today's advice be considered more true than yesterday's? If you survive D2 and is a suspect again in D3 will you have a different warning? Give enough of those and eventually one of them will be correct.

That said, I will keep your reads in mind if you are killed and flip town. Just don't expect me to believe them as gospel like how RW's read of you is supposed to be infallible.

It can be 100% solved. There exists a Nash equilibrium for optimal play. It's already been (almost) solved for headsup (Texas holdem).
Of course, knowing the psychology of the opponents can help you, but in theory it's possible to turn it into a 100% mathematical game.

Ditto for Mafia.

... Of course solving it would probably require more memory then there are elementary particles in the observable universe, but...

"Someone take this moron off the field." Shouts Dumbledore as two other faculty members drag Professor ZFR back to his seat.

"No talking with participants while the game's in progress. Don't make me open the brig." warns Dumbledore waving his wand.

The Tournament continues.

Ah, a math professor at Hogwarts? I always wondered why nobody ever seemed to take math, or language. Professor ZFR must have an office next to Professor Binns teaching remotely practical things nobody would ever care about.

What? I'm the professor of Advanced Improbability.

You didn't think the faculty mentioned in the Books (whatever they are) are all that Hogwarts has to offer?

Fuck, got home and found out the internet had been disconnected by our provider. We had to phone them and sort it out, I've only just got back online. I'm really tired

Ah, duh. Of course.

So you can go by the collective name of Agentcarradice, right? It's smoother than Joegtrial anyway.

Mmmhm, ok, yup.


Checks out.

*spits tea everywhere*

dafuq?

We all know yogs bribes the mod and takes bets on the side.

This is a good point, the name doesn't remotely fit the role. Cedric Diggory taking the hit for someone else is a very close fit.

Carr!? They're both called Carr!

_____________

Ok, Micro's claim:

Pros - Hasn't been counterclaimed by the real Percy Weasley
Cons - Role is bizarre and conveniently needs time to confirm, doesn't fit the character name

Other Stuff - Thinks that a dead townie thinking he was town on D1 clears him. Bad logic, but NAI. Fishing on D1... probably NAI given how obvious it was (or not fishing at all as Micro claims). The 'just you wait until I'm proven town!' statements strike me as AtE and rub me up the wrong way.

Hey I was the one that said Percy was anything but an Innocent Child, you can’t take that from me! See what happens when we don’t use secret code...

*ahem*

Don't you mean

?

Still very stressed. So no endless quoting. I'll just go through some topics bit by bit. The most important first: Microfish.

@Micro: RW didn't clear you. He couldn't. It was D1 and he was no investigator. So him reading you as Town doesn't prove anything. Townies don't 'KNOW' alignments just like that. That's the entire point of uninformed majority against informed minority. You know that. Selling RW's conviction as 'proof' is really thin! The only way he could have known that you were Town would have been if you were Masons together.

As for your breadcrumbs: weren't you the one who said 'oh yes, I'll do that next time I'm scum' when I suggested to breadcrumb several roles as scum jokingly? So that one would be able to pick a suitable one? So, how many other roles did you breadcrumb?

Also: a D4 innocent child is an awfully convenient claim that could be a scum false-claim intended to ensure your survival until Day 4. If we decide to believe that claim, you become untouchable until D4.
So I'm not sure what to make of this innocent child claim. I don't like it either way. Either it's a false claim or a very crippled role.

But:
about the flavour --> Percy not being an innocent child. I have two thoughts:
1. yes, true. Percy is an asshole and would better fit a traitor.
2. I was berated by trent that I put too much faith in flavour and he was right. ZFR said that apart from the houses flavour isn't going to relate to roles.

@trent: why do you, after berating me for trusting too much in flavour, now use flavour yourself to disbelieve Micro's claim?
You contradict yourself here and that makes you look quite unconvincing and even a bit scummy.

Something else entirely:
agent neighborizing Carradice makes sense, no matter whether agent is Town or not. As Town he would naturally choose one of the towniest players. As scum too, to keep up appearances and work mischief. Trying to use a trusted, albeit new player.


So, the question is how do we proceed with Micro? Neither his claim nor his 'proof' via RW are very convincing. So he might be either still be a decent lynch, if we decide to disbelieve him, or a decent investigation target for the cop.
He wasn't quickhammered either, but that may be NAI, since if he is Town any scum quickhammering him in the middle of the day would have been very suspicious.

But I am also still up for lynching Flocke, who disappeared. He has a grand total of one post Today that just promised that something would be coming - and that was 2 days ago. Maybe it's IRL. But maybe it's a newbie not knowing how to explain the 'not hammering' critique away.

My disbelief has nothing to do with flavor but his name. Let me quote (again) the OP “Finally, even if you don't know anything about Harry Potter, there is one thing you should know: Slytherin are the bad guys. In this game, they are equivalent to Mafia. So if your PM says you're Slytherin (Watcher of or otherwise) do not go shouting about it in your first post. I won't be doing any REDACTED for you. Remember, Slytherin is the new Kalunga.
Same goes for names.“[/Finally, even if you don't know anything about Harry Potter, there is one thing you should know: Slytherin are the bad guys. In this game, they are equivalent to Mafia. So if your PM says you're Slytherin (Watcher of or otherwise) do not go shouting about it in your first post. I won't be doing any REDACTED for you. Remember, Slytherin is the new Kalunga.
Same goes for names.“

To be honest, I find trent's fixation on the flavor and mechanics quite weird this time. Whenever the topic comes up, he always appears on cue to berate whoever was talking about these topics. He is leaving no breathing room. And you do make a good point, once the Percy Weasley name was dropped, he pounced on it with no second thoughts.

Also, I'd like a brief recap of who Percy Weasley is and his accomplishments, things of note, etc etc. I'm feeling real out of the loop about how he fits -or not- with "D4 Innocent Child."