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General discussionGOG Forum Mafia #27: Gameshow Showdown - The Game(1646 posts)(1646 posts)
(1646 posts)
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This is my favourite topic
Posted May 29, 2015
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Bookwyrm627: Well, I know that I didn't overlook the possibility that someone might successfully convince others that I deserved to get lynched for vigging a townie out of spite. Maybe you use a different definition of risk than I do.
How could have I overlooked one possibility of many and many in which you could be lynched. How dare I? Especially since that possibility reeks of WIFOM opportunities to not get lynched. Come to think of it. You can also point scum on whom to NK during that time. /endsarcasm

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Bookwyrm627: I did read it, and then I proceeded to explain the different possibilities and how I'd identify a scum vig shot.
So you pretty much just wasted space by noting points that have already been said before and not even being on topic to what I said. Ok.

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Bookwyrm627: Oooooooh. My mistake, I thought you were questioning why I wouldn't worry about a town vig making the shot. I didn't realize you were just in OMGUS mode.
You didn't worry about a town vig taking the shot. That so far is obvious. Why question it? I'll quote JMich in this case and instead attributing your action to stupidity, I'll attribute it to malice. OMGUS? Well, if you think I'm OMGUS, then you're nothing but a copy and paste of yog during the Space Opera game.

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Bookwyrm627: Hunh. Guess you missed the part where I was working on laying down a potential path for them to use.
And I'm sure you would have succeeded. /end sarcasm
Working on and actually making it happen are 2 different things.

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Bookwyrm627: I didn't say you explicitly said it. Your stated intention to vote just seemed geared toward my having possibly risked a doctor or role blocker. "(what if I were doctor or roleblocker? this here is good enough reason for me to vote)".
Do you even read what you write? How does that even correlate to me being sure they are town? How does that make any sense?

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Bookwyrm627: Then call me a liar and place your vote. I'd love to hear what my neferious plan actually was.
I called it at least 12 hours. 2 left.
Posted May 29, 2015
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HypersomniacLive: Are you concluding that yogsloth's scum because he bid 1? Why would town not do the same?
I actually find the bid number reason quite weak if not faulty. I don't see how a random number is a scum tell, but maybe adalia sees something I don't. I need more clarification because the number one doesn't tell me anything unless I know what CSPVG as a mod set as the target number for the Vig role, which of course we don't know, do we?
Posted May 29, 2015
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HypersomniacLive: Are you concluding that yogsloth's scum because he bid 1? Why would town not do the same?
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HijacK: I actually find the bid number reason quite weak if not faulty. I don't see how a random number is a scum tell, but maybe adalia sees something I don't. I need more clarification because the number one doesn't tell me anything unless I know what CSPVG as a mod set as the target number for the Vig role, which of course we don't know, do we?
Wait, what? What do you not understand about the target number for vig?
Posted May 29, 2015
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HypersomniacLive: [emphasis added]
I'm not sure what point exactly you're trying to make here - what does the part I highlighted mean exactly?And what purpose does counting Hijack to the vanilla players serve?

Are you concluding that yogsloth's scum because he bid 1? Why would town not do the same?
There is no real purpose to counting HijacK as vanilla, it was just because he has made a claim and it was easy to count him amongst the vanillas as he basically is now anyway. Basically unless most of the town players bid on Vig I think it's highly unlikely any of the remaining spots are a vig bid (bar the player who actually got it) and I can't see at least one scum player not bidding on vig. Therefore one of the people who bid vig is likely to be scum. We know Sage wasn't, we can reasonably assume the winning bidder isn't, which makes yog highly suspect (in my eyes at least)

As for bidding 1, it's clearly the best bid, but it's risky because others are also likely to have bid it, making it worse than a higher unique bid. But scum will know that at least two other players haven't bid 1, and therefore it's less of a risk and I would imagine they are more likely to have one of the scum players bid 1 in the hopes that all the town players will not have risked it. And it makes sense if you are goig to bid 1 as scum that you would bid it for Vig as that is going to be the most desirable role.

@HijacK - I have no idea what you even mean. I'm not sure you grasped how the bidding system worked...
Posted May 29, 2015
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adaliabooks: There is no real purpose to counting HijacK as vanilla, it was just because he has made a claim and it was easy to count him amongst the vanillas as he basically is now anyway. [...]
You did not answer my question about what you meant with "fills up the roster", and you did count Hijack as vanilla in relation to that. Is your "roster" the list of players still alive? If yes, here's how your "roster" goes:
- Three vanilla players
- One Tracker
- One Vigilante
- One Doctor

That accounts for six players. Now, if I understood you correctly, you either count both of the other two roles (Role Cop and Roleblocker) to get us to eight players, or one of them and one more vanilla player.

Is that what you're doing?


I find it very interesting that both adaliabooks and yogsloth mention the possibility of not all roles being in the game. Unless I got this whole bidding thing completely wrong, the only way for a role to not be in the game is for no-one to have bid for it. Are adaliabooks and yogsloth seriously trying to tell us that not a single person chose to bid for the yet unclaimed roles? But at least one bid for Commuter (assuming that Hijack's telling the truth)?

Am I really the only one thinking that this is quite unlikely to be the case?



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yogsloth: [...]

I have an idea- this will help answer some of adalia’s questions and, quite frankly, would just be fun as hell. Everybody who is unclaimed – you want to tell us what your number was, if you don’t want to put out your role? I think that would be very, very revealing. That way you can keep your precious role safe, but I am nearly 100% certain we could backtrack in later days to root out scum based just on that.

Whaddya say, folks?
I say your idea sounds a lot like fishing.



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HijacK: I actually find the bid number reason quite weak if not faulty. I don't see how a random number is a scum tell, but maybe adalia sees something I don't. I need more clarification because the number one doesn't tell me anything unless I know what CSPVG as a mod set as the target number for the Vig role, which of course we don't know, do we?
[emphasis added]
If you're saying that each role had a number set by the mod that one had to guess right to land the role, then you got the whole procedure wrong.
Then again, the wording in your post #1059 where you claimed doesn't sound like you misunderstood it. So what exactly are you trying to say with this?
Posted May 29, 2015
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HypersomniacLive: You did not answer my question about what you meant with "fills up the roster", and you did count Hijack as vanilla in relation to that. Is your "roster" the list of players still alive? If yes, here's how your "roster" goes:
- Three vanilla players
- One Tracker
- One Vigilante
- One Doctor

That accounts for six players. Now, if I understood you correctly, you either count both of the other two roles (Role Cop and Roleblocker) to get us to eight players, or one of them and one more vanilla player.

Is that what you're doing?

I find it very interesting that both adaliabooks and yogsloth mention the possibility of not all roles being in the game. Unless I got this whole bidding thing completely wrong, the only way for a role to not be in the game is for no-one to have bid for it. Are adaliabooks and yogsloth seriously trying to tell us that not a single person chose to bid for the yet unclaimed roles? But at least one bid for Commuter (assuming that Hijack's telling the truth)?

Am I really the only one thinking that this is quite unlikely to be the case?
Yes. We know for a fact we have three claimed players (me, yogsloth and HijacK) who are all basically vanilla and I know (and so does everyone else if you choose to believe me) that we have two more roles that must be in the game, Tracker and Vig. I would assume at least Doctor has been bid on, and I did actually assume that the two Role roles are in the game (which, by my count, means that all the roles would have been bid on). So I'm not sure what you're getting at.

As to not all the roles being in the game, there is a distinct possibility. If more than one person bid for Doctor (or Role Cop, or Role Blocker) we are one role down, so do you think it's likely three people bid for Vig but only one bid for Doctor?
Posted May 29, 2015
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HypersomniacLive: You did not answer my question about what you meant with "fills up the roster", and you did count Hijack as vanilla in relation to that. Is your "roster" the list of players still alive? If yes, here's how your "roster" goes:
- Three vanilla players
- One Tracker
- One Vigilante
- One Doctor

That accounts for six players. Now, if I understood you correctly, you either count both of the other two roles (Role Cop and Roleblocker) to get us to eight players, or one of them and one more vanilla player.

Is that what you're doing?

I find it very interesting that both adaliabooks and yogsloth mention the possibility of not all roles being in the game. Unless I got this whole bidding thing completely wrong, the only way for a role to not be in the game is for no-one to have bid for it. Are adaliabooks and yogsloth seriously trying to tell us that not a single person chose to bid for the yet unclaimed roles? But at least one bid for Commuter (assuming that Hijack's telling the truth)?

Am I really the only one thinking that this is quite unlikely to be the case?
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adaliabooks: Yes. We know for a fact we have three claimed players (me, yogsloth and HijacK) who are all basically vanilla and I know (and so does everyone else if you choose to believe me) that we have two more roles that must be in the game, Tracker and Vig. I would assume at least Doctor has been bid on, and I did actually assume that the two Role roles are in the game (which, by my count, means that all the roles would have been bid on). So I'm not sure what you're getting at.

As to not all the roles being in the game, there is a distinct possibility. If more than one person bid for Doctor (or Role Cop, or Role Blocker) we are one role down, so do you think it's likely three people bid for Vig but only one bid for Doctor?
Don't forget we've got two dead vanilla townies. Either/both of them could have been the "extra" doctor bids.
Posted May 29, 2015
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Bookwyrm627: Don't forget we've got two dead vanilla townies. Either/both of them could have been the "extra" doctor bids.
True. That's a good point, we've got three dead vanillas if we include flub, so it's probably more likely that the remaining roles are taken, but I think my point still stands.
Like I said, it's not the only reason I suspect yogs, but I think it adds up with everything else to make me pretty sure he's scum.
Posted May 29, 2015
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adaliabooks: Yes. We know for a fact we have three claimed players (me, yogsloth and HijacK) who are all basically vanilla and I know (and so does everyone else if you choose to believe me) that we have two more roles that must be in the game, Tracker and Vig. I would assume at least Doctor has been bid on, and I did actually assume that the two Role roles are in the game (which, by my count, means that all the roles would have been bid on). So I'm not sure what you're getting at.

As to not all the roles being in the game, there is a distinct possibility. If more than one person bid for Doctor (or Role Cop, or Role Blocker) we are one role down, so do you think it's likely three people bid for Vig but only one bid for Doctor?
If all roles were bid on, that would mean that we started out with 8 roles, and 6 vanilla players; 4 of them are dead (trentonlf, Lifthrasil, flubbucket, Sage103082), so we should have 2 more vanilla players tops still in the game. Counting HijacK to them (assuming that he said the truth and had a role) distorts the count and sum of how many players are vanilla (never had a role to begin with) and how many have one (regardless of if used already or not).

With you and yogsloth both claiming vanilla, there are no spots left for other vanillas, unless at least one of the yet unclaimed roles are not in the game. Which is an argument that could be seen as a safeguard in case another, verifiable vanilla claim pops-up - "I was not lying, it's one role not being in the game".

I find it interesting that you both (yogsloth after you) used this argument. An argument I don't find very likely. Again, from my understanding, the only way for a role to not be in the game is if no-one bid for it; it doesn't matter how many bid for it ito be in the game, one big is enough. Given the nature of the yet unclaimed roles, I have a difficult time believing that no-one bid for one of them.

That's what I'm getting at.



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Bookwyrm627: Don't forget we've got two dead vanilla townies. Either/both of them could have been the "extra" doctor bids.
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adaliabooks: True. That's a good point, we've got three dead vanillas if we include flub, [...]
We actually have three dead Vanilla Town players, and one dead Mafia Goon.

I'm starting to wonder if you all purposefully miscount.
Posted May 29, 2015
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HypersomniacLive: We actually have three dead Vanilla Town players, and one dead Mafia Goon.

I'm starting to wonder if you all purposefully miscount.
Sage bid for Vig, so she couldn't have bid for a different role. The question was "Is it likely that 3 people bid for vig, but only 1 for doctor?" Trent's bid and Lift's bid are unaccounted for, so more than 1 person may well have bid for doctor. Flub might have as well, but he might also have gone for a different role with more direct use to scum.

Adalia's count works out above: 8 players, two claimed vanilla and a depleted commuter role (only vanilla actions left). The leaves 5 living players and 5 unclaimed roles. Assuming everyone has told the truth about their claim so far, any more vanilla requires fewer than 8 roles in the game.

I, personally, am inclined to believe that all remaining roles are in the game. I also think someone is lying, but I'm not sure who yet.

Lastly, I am bothered by the idea of every one claiming a bid number. Scum will have all numbers except two of them at that point, while town will have anywhere from 3-5 numbers that are missing or possibly wrong. I'm not sure whether mass claiming numbers (pinning scum to a number, which might help us find a lie) or avoiding such (preventing scum from piecing together likely bid winners) helps town more.
Posted May 29, 2015
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Bookwyrm627: Sage bid for Vig, so she couldn't have bid for a different role. The question was "Is it likely that 3 people bid for vig, but only 1 for doctor?" Trent's bid and Lift's bid are unaccounted for, so more than 1 person may well have bid for doctor. Flub might have as well, but he might also have gone for a different role with more direct use to scum.

[...]
That was not my point though when I first brought this up, adaliabooks stirred the discussion in that direction, and never addressed the obvious - a role is not in the game if no-one bid for it. Of do I have this wrong?


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Bookwyrm627: [...]

Adalia's count works out above: 8 players, two claimed vanilla and a depleted commuter role (only vanilla actions left). The leaves 5 living players and 5 unclaimed roles. Assuming everyone has told the truth about their claim so far, any more vanilla requires fewer than 8 roles in the game.


[...]
I must be the only one seeing the fundamental flaw in counting HijacK both as a player with a role and as one of he vanilla players.


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Bookwyrm627: [...]

Lastly, I am bothered by the idea of every one claiming a bid number. Scum will have all numbers except two of them at that point, while town will have anywhere from 3-5 numbers that are missing or possibly wrong. I'm not sure whether mass claiming numbers (pinning scum to a number, which might help us find a lie) or avoiding such (preventing scum from piecing together likely bid winners) helps town more.
And the part I highlighted is exactly what made me call "fishing" on yogsloth's idea.
Posted May 29, 2015
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HypersomniacLive: That was not my point though when I first brought this up, adaliabooks stirred the discussion in that direction, and never addressed the obvious - a role is not in the game if no-one bid for it. Of do I have this wrong?
As far as I know, this is correct. I seem to recall taht CSPVG confirmed this early on, but I don't remember for sure.

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HypersomniacLive: I must be the only one seeing the fundamental flaw in counting HijacK both as a player with a role and as one of he vanilla players.
I can't speak for others, but I do not understand your concern on this point.
Assuming he's being truthful, then he has a role but he has used everything it can give him. Vengeful is gone, so the protection of having a role is no longer needed, and he has no more shots of power to use at night. Commuter wasn't being counted as an outstanding role, and no one has seen fit to either claim they have commuter or even claim they bid for commuter.
Posted May 29, 2015
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Bookwyrm627: [...]

I can't speak for others, but I do not understand your concern on this point.

[...].
I already explained [url=https://www.gog.com/forum/general/gog_forum_mafia_27_gameshow_showdown_the_game/post1121]my concern is.
The number of players is finite. So is the number of roles, hence the number of vanilla players as well. Double counting one player leads to erroneous conclusions, and the "need" to introduce special conditions to get a correct count. Not sure how else to explain it.


Who do you think more likely to be lying and why?
Posted May 29, 2015
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yogsloth: I have an idea- this will help answer some of adalia’s questions and, quite frankly, would just be fun as hell. Everybody who is unclaimed – you want to tell us what your number was, if you don’t want to put out your role? I think that would be very, very revealing. That way you can keep your precious role safe, but I am nearly 100% certain we could backtrack in later days to root out scum based just on that.

Whaddya say, folks?
(emphasis added)
If a claimed vanilla has a unique bid, then the player who successfully bid for the same role must have a smaller unique bid. Depending on how the numbers fall, this could potentially reveal that player’s role. How is that keeping the role safe?

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Bookwyrm627: I never expected scum to go "Hijack died to a vig shot, Wyrm must have done it!" That is, as you stated, stupid. But consider something like "Hijack is dead, and 2 kills occurred so the vig took a shot last night. You know, wyrm was talking about vigging him yesterday..."
(emphasis added)
Isn’t it possible that town could make the same observation?

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HypersomniacLive: I must be the only one seeing the fundamental flaw in counting HijacK both as a player with a role and as one of he vanilla players.
For clarity and consistency, I think it helps to only count vanillas who are actually vanilla. I didn’t see any malintent by talking about Hijack as now having the same power as a vanilla.


@Hijack – Congratulations on graduating. Here is the text to card that is likely appropriate:
“Congratulations! You worked late into the night, concentrating hard and never giving up!.........And when you weren’t playing video games, you graduated! Way to go!” ;-)
Posted May 29, 2015
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cristigale: For clarity and consistency, I think it helps to only count vanillas who are actually vanilla.
I also think this would be best. So, while technically, HijacK has no power anymore, in terms of calculating probabilities and such I think we should count him as a power role.
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This is my favourite topic
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General discussionGOG Forum Mafia #27: Gameshow Showdown - The Game(1646 posts)(1646 posts)
(1646 posts)