I would like to participate in the next game.

Assume the probability of having a boy and a girl are equal (50%).

From a given population, pick at random a family that has exactly 2 children, one of whom is a boy. What is the probability that the other child is a girl?

50%?
or word trickery?

Sorta.

The correct answer is 66.7%


Families with exactly 2 children are going to be equally distributed among the following groups

Group A: Girl, Girl
Group B: Girl, Boy
Group C: Boy, Girl
Group D: Boy, Boy

Since group A is excluded, we randomly pick a family from groups B, C and D. Therefore the probability of picking a family with a girl and a boy is twice as big as the probability of picking a family with 2 boys.

Notice how the question says the probability of "the other child" being a girl. In case of B and C, we only have one option of picking "the other child". For D, either of the children could be the "other".

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This question shows the importance of correctly picking a sample from a population when doing statistical analysis. If somebody were to pick a sample of families as described above, he might reach the incorrect conclusion that girls are more common than boys.

Consider this question instead:

"From a given population, pick at random a boy from family that has exactly 2 children. What is the probability that the other child is a girl?"

In this case, the answer is 50%.
We're picking a boy at random, and not a family, so for a family of two boys, each boy has a chance of being picked. Meaning that picking a boy from family D will be twice as likely as that of family B or C.

So, with that out of the way, shall I start a new Mafia signup thread?


I need 12-13 players ideally, but if we don't get that much, I'll try to rebalance with less.

Please!

Bold ambition.

Well you know the saying:
Shoot for the stars and maybe you'll make it a couple of feet off the ground.

word trickery!

Signup thread is up
https://www.gog.com/forum/general/looking_for_volunteers_for_a_deduction_game

You're added.

I already got 2-3 inches off, but I can't do this without you.

Folks, I don't know if any of you care, but my aunt needs prayer. After 5 or 6 days of double pneumonia, she is now in respiratory failure (not always fatal but far too often it is). She is on 11Liters per minute of 80+% pure oxygen, and Monday will undergo a test which might kill her but is a Last Resort to find out what this infection is so they know how to treat it...
assuming that
a) she lives through the bronchoscopy (due to the high oxygen flow they want it done in under 5 minutes--so they won't take time to drain the lungs...they are that concerned about lack of oxygen--and the general effects of anesthesia shutting stuff down.) and
b) that she wakes up afterwards. she might be in a medically induced coma afterwards, and will be in ICU if she survives.

So, if any of you are Christians and pray, please pray for her to both survive and get better. The doctor or specialist is scared she won't live through the usually routine test.

Of course we care. I'm sorry to hear she isn't doing better. I'm not one for prayers but I do hope she manages to pull through.

I'm very sorry to hear that, I hope she pulls through and they can figure out how to help her. I don't have anyone to pray to but hopefully my thoughts are enough.

Done, and will continue.