mchack: even if he'll get converted like adalia seems to think,
that's still one nightaction used that they can't use to nk town then)
ZFR: But that's one nightaction they used to convert town, which is worse than nk town.
It's like saying you're happy your leg got amputated because at least now it won't be broken.
nope. it isn't when you just lynch the townie before scum having to nk or convert him. and then they either convert or kill
another town. nothing gained.
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mchack: [...] Scumhunting is doubly the way to go this game. [...]
HypersomniacLive: Scum-hunting and tunnelling are not the same thing.
true. but I'm not the only scumhunter around. others will hopefully pick up the truckloads of stuff that I missed. there is 8 townies in game you know. And scum is probably also scumhunting.
mchack: [...] give the man a chance to talk before lynching at least. if indeed town vanilla he shouldn't be lynched (which would be saving scum a nk - even if he'll get converted like adalia seems to think, that's still one nightaction used that they can't use to nk town then) [...]
HypersomniacLive: Two questions for you:
- Why would either of the scum team waste a perfectly good NK on a confirmed Town Vanilla when they can convert them and increase their numbers?
- Which is worse for town, to have two NK-ed, or to have one converted and one NK-ed? In the first scenario, town's down by two, but scum numbers remain the same; in the second one, town's still down by two, but one scum team is now up by one. Which scenario brings town closer to victory?
- They wouldn't. but then we know where to look. he'll be suspected till end game but how is that worse than lynching him while he's town thereby wasting a chance to hit scum that day, which gets even higher if you can rule out a "confirmed town vanilla" (which flub isn't by a long shot) and giving scum the chance to convert someone else entirely that is not suspected in endgame
-the first scenario is better for town I suspect. but I don't really see how it applies here, because both scenarios can happen whether we lynch flub or not. if flub is town, then let me ask you: which scenario is better for town a) lynching a known townie b) lynching someone else with the (then even higher) chance of hitting scum and learning something new by the flip.
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mchack: Don't do scums work for them! (unless you are actually scum, then go right ahead and lynch someone you "in fact do believe is town")
also again: the advertising as being a good knowledgable recruit that will bring new tactics to his buddies once they recruit him...
adaliabooks: I'm not. I'm doing our work for tomorrow so we don't have to.
Let's say we don't lynch flub and we lynch someone else. They're likely to be town too, might even force a mason to claim, so we don't really gain much there.
oh that's where I think you are wrong:
I already did post a bit on chances before and said that the masons are much harder to lynch D1 (they know each other) so they shouldn't be forced to claim in that case and if you also take a known townie (which flub isn't in my book) from that then there's only 4 vanilla vs 4 scum left. 50% chance. In no way more likely a town lynch than scum lynch.
adaliabooks: Then in the night flub is recruited (or even worse case, scum guess correctly and convert a different townie in which case we lynch flub tomorrow assuming he's been converted when he hasn't) and we lynch him tomorrow. We gain no info from tomorrow's lynch because of course everyone will vote flub if we assume he has been converted.
if we assume that. But if we do or don't will be our choosing based on the information we have tomorrow. (we'll maybe see that there a 2 nk and so know that flub was not converted) who knows. I'd rather have someone I suspect around that I can question, than killing him of while believing him town for the off chance he might become scum next day. Also flub was converted last game after going "suicidal" town and he was indeed our first scum lynch then and the game was over with the next lynch D2 Town win. Don't know how this game would have went if we had lynched flub D1
mchack: I totally agree thats the case when scum.
But if you try to look at it from a town perspective, where does the info come from? ok the flip which will be 2 town vanilla dead in most games (lynch + nk) and in this it might be 3 town vanilla dead (lynch + 2 nk). So how is this better information to get to a
town game winning state if looking at the wagon helps noone because noone bothered to scumhunt or put reasons or stances down for his vote but just voted the next best person, because he felt like it. or just voted whoever was prettiest at the moment?
adaliabooks: The flip.
We have no investigative roles so the only info we ever get is the flip (and masons claiming, which in this game is solid confirmation if all of them do).
Right now we have to choose 4 from 12, including a lot of noise like flub and Krypsyn and the lurkers like Leonard and Sage.
Tomorrow we may only have to choose 4 from 9. If the masons all survive the night and claim then it's 4 from 6. Plus the record of today to root out the townies from the bunch.
How is that not a better winning state?
Well we don't loose the info from the flip by continueing to scumhunt, do we? What changes by not piling up on flubs reaching for a fast lynch of someone you believe to be town, other than having less information to go on day 2?