The Greater Good

Before anything else:

@mods - three questions:

1. Do we get a clear flip on the CL?
2. When the CL goes down and there's a remaining Cultist, do they inherit the CL recruiting ability?
3. Does the freshly recruited Cultist get access to the scum-chat before the Night he's recruited is over?

Yes.

No.

Read only.

Ah thank you, for a horrible human person you're very forthcoming.

What are your thoughts on who the CL might be?

I'm reading through the latest exchanges and revisiting a couple of things, and will be working on exactly that, but wanted some clarification first, hence the questions to the mod and the "before anything else" preface.

May take a while, so patience, please.

I will patiently await your response :-)

Official Vote Count

Lifthrasil - 0 Votes

HypersomniacLive - 0 Votes

Bookwyrm627 - 1 Votes (mchack 437)

trentonlf - 0 Votes

mchack - 0 Votes

dedoporno - 0 Votes

No Lynch - 0 Votes

Not Currently Voting: Lifthrasil, HypersomniacLive, Bookwyrm627, trentonlf, dedoporno

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With 4 votes required to lynch, Bookwyrm627 is closest at L-3

Deadline is undetermined.

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Day 1 Lynch Vote Count
Day 2.1 Lynch Vote Count

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Format:
<player voted> - <# of current votes> Votes (<player voting> <post voted>/<post unvoted, if applicable>)

Underlined votes are currently active.

All values will revert to 0 and/or blank at the start of a new Day/Lynch.

The Greater Good

Yes, I'm not cleared, however that doesn't automatically make me scum, nor makes everything I say and do more likely to be coming from a scum mindset.

I'm Town Vanilla. I have no night-actions to perform, no way of knowing if what others say/claim is true or not, and rely on what is being posted to weigh things, and root out the cult.
You claimed Town Inquisitor, and we have no roles in this setup to confirm or disprove it.

Put yourself in my shoes. At the time that you claimed, was there a way for me to know that you are the Inquisitor? Is it prudent to take your claim at face value right out the gate? Is it imprudent to try to see all possible angles? Is checking if your claim could be coming from a scum mindset (CL/Cultist) an unreasonable angle to look into?

If you can answer all the above with "yes" and give reasonable arguments as to why that is, then yes, you can say it's more likely I was trying to discredit your claim and investigation result (I assume that's what you mean by "read"). Otherwise, you have to consider my overall play from both sides (read me as town and as scum) and see which mindset fits better, and not simply rely on feeling. You said you had/(wanted?) to go over my posts again. Did you? If yes, what did you see? If not, will you?

Regarding the reluctance to hammer flubbucket and the "turn around" - I was trying to avoid bussing him by staying around, exploring angles, posting things and stalling, all things that could get me in trouble instead of cleanly going for the hammer a.s.a.p. and reaping some nice town credit in the process? And it took me that long to realise I had no way around bussing him? You think that the CL didn't give a nudge to flubbucket regarding the possibility of the latter being on the chopping block, and how he'd handle it?
I'll give you that my scum play can use a ton of improvement, but you should give me a little more credit than that; I don't park my brain at the entrance when I'm scum.


I've yet to see flubbucket fight back when on the chopping block, scum or not.


The only case I could perhaps see him make such an attempt is if the CL were a newbie player, but none here are.


Except that at the time flubbucket made that post, mchack hadn't posted yet (according to GOG's time stamps, he showed up about an hour later). So had I hammered before that (Bookwyrm627 didn't show up at all, still hasn't), I'd probably be accused along the lines of "rushing the hammer" for whatever reason.



Interesting.



On to who I think may be the CL.

Didn't Trent claim first?

Everyone had shown up and Flub confessed to being cult. We didn't get any counter-claims or other counter-accusations (which is something I was hoping might happen), so I don't know why he wasn't already dead; I'd have capped him myself were I present and able.

...why would HSL be obvitown? I don't see any fashion in which HSL becomes obvitown in this scenario.

No reason to hold back now.

I had a bunch of reasons:
1) Get things going. We were floundering in fun when I made Post 80. You'll notice the accusations and discussions got serious very quickly after I made that post.
2) I wasn't a PR, but with careful phrasing maybe the CL will think I am and take a chance on recruiting me. Recruiting vanilla is better for town than recruiting a PR.
3) Try to clear myself as town by acting in a fashion that would ultimately be suicide for the CL. I know that if we're lynching me (at least on Day 1), then we aren't lynching cult.
4) Put myself in a corner that cult me couldn't escape from, especially depending on who is the CL. Town me wants me to get lynched if I get converted.
5) Hopefully convince all non-vanilla in the game to pick someone else that isn't me for their night action. Yes, it slightly increases the chance that the CL hits a PR, but it also increases the chance of blocking the recruitment and of detecting cult (assuming either role exists; and if they don't, then they can't be recruited anyway).

Really, guys? It has been less than 24 hours. I reserve the right to go home, do family things, and play video games. :P

Neither Mchack nor Flub had arrived before I went home. I didn't check in last night while at home; I didn't feel the need since Day 2 had started (at that time) only two days ago and we already had a cop claim with a guilty result.

Additionally, I took the evening to mull over whether Trent and Lift might have been fake claiming. The setup guarantees that a CL will be present, but not one or both town PRs. It would be somewhat risky to make such a claim when they did (especially Trent), but it could also have been a game winner if one of them had recruited the other. Ultimately, I think the claims are legit.

I will happily confirm that as of Post 396, I didn't want the lynch to happen yet; I'm not sure how much more obvious I could be about saying "Don't lynch him yet!" My reason (now provided above) was not provided at the time because doing so would likely have made it useless. I also even provided what I wanted to see happen before Flub got lynched.

-----

Looking at how people have played today, I'm convinced that HSL is the cult leader.

-His questions look to be asked just to have questions (his usual MO).
-His major post today about another player was little more than an attempt at smearing. Granted, I was the target, so maybe I'm biased on this point. I would ask everyone to go back and review his posting (especially Day 2) and see what you think of his arguments. Take some time and actually verify them, and note how many don't work toward scum hunting.
-I notice that the (now confirmed) cultist and HSL started an attack on the same player, and both occurred before we got the claims. Maybe I'm being ego-centric here, but it feels like they looked for someone lynchable, and guess what I set myself up to be on Day 1?
-Trent protecting the CL has no effect on the CL.


Taking a look at other players:
-If you believe the claims, then Trent and Lift cannot be the CL. If you don't believe one of the claims, then you should probably be guessing that the claim you don't believe came from the CL. If you don't believe both claims, then start asking yourself (and maybe them) why town(ies) would lie like that.
-Flub was the convert, which means that no one else could be converted. For me, this means Dedo and Mchack are still town. YMMV on who you'd still be reading as town.

Vote HSL

The Greater Good

My view of dedoporno hasn't changed since D1. Regarding D2:

I squinted when I read this - it's basically a suggestion to forego the chance of lynching the CL on D2 and ending the game there and then in victory, and instead give him the opportunity to regroup and freely recruit among four townies. This comes from the same person that, safely after the fact, argued in his post #370 "For all intents and purposes you can consider me the Hammer" regarding the D1 lynch.
The development at the time made me put it aside, but I made a note to revisit it if we didn't hit the CL with flubbucket, and see if and how he'll return to this himself. I'm having a hard time reconciling this with town-dedoporno.


He revisits it, in the innocuous tone and approach he's adopted all game, expressing doubt, and asking for input from others, but that last sentence can be read as gauging potential support for his initial suggestion.


Then we have:

Second squint.

I agree with Lifthrasil's arguments here, but am taking it a couple of steps further. Let's assume that dedoporno overlooked Krypsyn's confirmation in the D2.1 Lynch flavour, for all the reasons he stated. The question for me is - if he wasn't sure what the "Cult member" flip meant, and since knowing if we lynched a Cultist or the CL makes all the difference, why didn't he ask the mods for clarification? I did, and got a very clear answer, so why didn't he? It's not like he's shy, and I'd have expected town-dedoporno to be a little more inclined to ask clarification on this matter at a crucial point in the game (when on top, it seems he was still considering No-Lynch), more so since Hunter65536'a absence warranted a question to the mods (post #298).

Instead he went into an argument with Lifthrasil:

Given how easily the matter could have been clarified, this reads more like an attempt to confuse the town, and keep the uncertainty live at best, and instil a false sense of security at worst.

I'm not surprised that I'm one of his lynch candidates. He repeats that he doesn't see what others see about me, which is in line with his D1 play, but has me capable of pulling off such a facade (remember his fear of me having recruited trentonlf). Which is quite interesting, as he kind of prided himself in past games of being able to see through my scum game, so did I really get that good this game (note, just a single game after he last commented along those lines)?
I'm also not surprised he's got Bookwyrm627 as town - he knows that the latter will probably be in favour of my lynch, Lifthrasil's also considering it, so all he needs is one more vote, which he might get from mchack if he plays his cards right.

Basically, he fits the "CL hiding in plain side" better than anyone else, so for these reasons, and everything I said on D1, I think he's the better shot at lynching the CL Today.


Next in line would be Bookwyrm627 (not going into details here as to not make this an even bigger wall of text), after that I'd have to (seriously) consider mchack (he's a pretty smart cookie). And if all these are wrong, the paranoid Town Vanilla in me would have to seriously examine the case of a "go big, or go home" play from Lifthrasil.

I think so, too.

-The first question from HSL that is close to game relevant is in Post 91 (asking Lift why he didn't address a question to Flub). We don't get anything else from HSL that isn't fluff or a questions related to the mechanics of the game until Post 161 (asking me about my vote being parked where it was).

-I'm looking through his ISO now, and I'm not seeing much in the way of actual scum hunting. I'm seeing a lot of instances where he's casting doubt on people (like Sage for her absence, indications that asking to be replaced makes it worse).

-The first time we get a statement of who HSL thinks might be town or scum is in post 239, where he has given up on Sage and is indicating he doesn't want to vote Mchack. Around this post, HSL seems to better hit his stride.

-We get some more thoughts on other players in 264. Some of the bits bother me, like "Yet Lifthrasil in his post #233 says that Hunter65536 may well be misrepresenting the whole exchange on purpose (while one could say it's what Lifthrasil does in that post).
And as I said, Hunter65536 accept fault on the matter, which doesn't help clear things up."

I don't see how whether Hunter accepted fault or not would clear anything up. If he didn't accept fault, then what would have been different in HSL's read of the situation?

-Where did Flub's end of day lynch conviction go? He started with me on D2; who was he wanting to lynch by the end of D1?

What? You agree with HSL that lynching you has the better shot at lynching the CL? ;-)

@HSL: don't worry, I also consider the possible town angles of your posts. Which is why I'm not voting you. I just point out all the possible scum angles to be thorough. If you are town, explaining your actual (town) reasons is something you can do better than I. And which you just did. So yes, I do focus on possible scum motivations in everybody's play ... and I do get the impression, that we had this conversation before.

@Bookwyrm: sorry, yes. You weren't gone that long. It just felt that way. How dare you to have a private life? ;-)

@trent, what do you thing? dedo or HSL? Both make good points about the other and I think there is a good chance that one is the CL. Of course, it might be a case of two townies at each other's throat. But I was going back over Bookwyrm's play on D1. And while I hated it, I must admit that he did play in this way as town too in the past (where I hated it too). So his D1 play isn't enough to condemn him. Or do you see something I don't?

I'm agreeing that I'm not the worst lynch, even though I'm certainly not the best.


[emphasis added]

That has exactly what to do with the suggestion of no lynching?

It can also be read as asking for input from others, given that we have a better chance not screwing up if we go through our actions together.

I read the opening post and the rules page it contained. I consider things present there in a specific manner as things I can count on and things not present there as something that is not disclaimed by intention.

It's hard to be surprised when the options grow thinner constantly. Still, even though I'm not as certain as Wyrm seems to be in your guilt there isn't much disproving it, either. You are just as conveniently stuck on myself following Trent from D1 and seem to take every possible chance to chip a bit more where able.

Of course not.

Now this is getting interesting. You mean to say that after you lynch me and I flip Town the next best choice is Wyrm and after he also flips Town then you'll be examining the Lift case? Will you be examining said case post-game as that would be over by then?


As I said earlier it might not be the worst idea to lynch me - if we are mislynching I am definitely the best choice since a big question mark get erased and everything that was being thrown dirt on because of not knowing better or by design will have to be re-considered. Also, if HSL is in fact the CL I'd like to see how he plans to continue the game from that state on. Going with the next best choice who is Wyrm?

To be honest I’m torn at the moment. I protected HSL last night because I felt he was town and possibly the inquisitor, and if he’s the CL and not dedo then I must really re-evaluate my thinking process. I want to think on this more and will post my thoughts later this evening (in about 6 hours or so). I also hope mchack will have shown back up by then as well.