Can flop by Witcher 4 damage GoG?

Making a game is risky, it might not make money back.
Cyberpunk already had bad launch.

So what if Witcher 4 just doesnt sell properly?
Can it affect in long term GoG?

It's certainly possible, although Cyberpunk's botched release (on consoles) doesn't seem to have affected GOG all that much.

Why is going to Flop? I mean, if the Witcher 4 is a good game, it is very possible to be a success and profitable. Other Witcher games where successful, so I do not see any significant risk here.

They have probably limited the risk by having a holding company and different subsidiaries. If GOG can sustain itself financially I'd guess the risk is quite minimal.

Cyberpunk made crazy amount of money for them at launch, no amount of backlash could make that game non-profitable. Probably Witcher 4 won't flop due to hype.

Unlaid eggs - nuff said.

Yeah let's hope so. I guess Dragon Age: Veilguard and Star Wars: Outlaws also had a known name and hype.

Oh well, at least my GOG games are DRM-free so I can keep them even if GOG perished.

By just seeing the teaser and the "knowledge", that a lot of people from W3 doing other things now (like people did after 1 and 2), some people already know it will be a "DIE infested wreck of a game with a girlboss in charge" for sure.

Personally I would wait until we know a lot more about what they want to do, but if some people claim to be able to see into the future and already talking about the damage it will do....




About the question.
In difference to the Epic Game Store, GoG is actually self substantiating. Means it does not need money injections from the parent company all the time. GoG doesn't make much money, but it can stay afloat.

And CDPR does now have more then one game in development, so they won't rise or fall with one game anymore.
In addition they build up a reputation to work on their games, even if they got a rough start. And to be honest, all of them got a rough start. Cyberpunks start only looks worse because they hit the wall with the consoles. And nowadays it is one of the big games that still sells well.

GOG only makes a lot of profit when CDPR has a big release. So if W4 flops, then yes GOG sales revenue and net profits will hurt for a long time. When CP77 released on GOG in 2020, GOG had its highest market share of PC digital downloads at 0.3%, but last year was half of that. And in 2021, they had nearly -15% net profit margins.

In contrast, W3 had a good launch in 2015 and sustained them through 2015-2017. So a successful launch and expansions can buy GOG 2-3 years of breathing room. Crucial when the company struggles to make a profit amongst the lack of vision and results seen in execution by upper management despite the increase in number of new hires.

I've compiled a lot of this info in the financial thread here on the forums - https://www.gog.com/forum/general/cd_projekt_strategy_and_development_of_the_company_financial_results_suggestions_by_armchair_ceos/post658

What if a massive meteoroid causes a global extinction event, such as the one that killed off the dinosaurs. Will that affect GOG? I'm fearful for my digital games collection. :-(

Yup very true. It is all about the game. Dragon Age is still active though - a lot of people are playing it on steam. I won't be surprised if it sold enough to be profitable. So the name may have played indeed a big role here (and the big hopes from the studio).

Veilguard really really does a good job of reminding me of Mass Effect 2! And that is a good thing sort of! I don't mind and many others with me. The game self runs more than great! With an engine that is less dependable on raw wattage to paint a nice picture.


Oh, and ehhh, it is literally inconceivable that CDPR will make an oopsie with Witcher 4. How could they? They have such an invested infrastructure. And with their latest release Cyberpunk being a damn good RPG. I can't see how it can go to ruin. OR they really insist on pulling a command and conquer 4 thingy

From my perspective, it's not so much a question of "can Witcher 4 being a financial failure damage GOG" as it is an assumption on my part that Witcher 4, regardless of success or failure, will be damaging to GOG as a DRM-free store. There are any number of what I would lovingly dub "CDPR-isms" that go back several years at this point, thus my conclusion that any big CDPR release spells trouble for those of us who care about offline DRM-free gaming:

Examples of "CDPRisms" that run antithetical to offline DRM-free gaming:

-GWENT being an online-only game with microtransactions

-Thronebreaker, the offline singleplayer GWENT/GWENT spinoff, having GWENT bundled with it (driving more users to the online-only microtransaction gaming)

-Cyberpunk multiplayer having been commented about at some point (not sure what became of that), which would presumably be online-only (see parenthetical above) if not also Galaxy-required (nothing we observe indicates CDPR would focus on DRM-free LAN, split-screen, etc offline multiplayers)

Memory fuzzy on the following, so someone correct me if this is inaccurate in some way:
-Cyberpunk's "My Rewards"; Galaxy-locked content

-Cyberpunk's Piggyback Interactive map; online-only content (and not even for free)

-Witcher 3, which was 100% DRM-free for years, updated with Galaxy-locked content

Games can absolutely be non-profitable and harm the mid/long term stability of studios, especially a triple A that inherently involves a big risk, with lots of investors that expect to get their money back and then some

And even beyond money, the launch of Cyberpunk jeopardized the good faith people had in CD Projekt Red

That said, I doubt they're gonna make the same mistake twice lol TW4 will probably release reasonably polished and feature complete

The question is weird, because it seems as if GoG has been on a downward slope for years. Outdated versions of games, unfulfilled promises, 5 years late for Galaxy Linux, etc...

Yeah, Witcher 4 is a big title made by a different team than any of the other Witcher games, but CDPR doesn't seem to ever be punished by their fans, so I wouldn't be too worried about it. If you are, download your games before Witcher 4 launches. Though I promise it will be hyped and praised in this community regardless of it being a masterpiece or a pile of crap, so you will be fine either way. They would have to spend a stupid amount of money on development for it to be a financial flop. Plus, the Witcher IP is bigger now than ever before (which is probably why they green-lit 4).

Sleep well, everything will be fine.