And me to you as well; I knew then I was OMGUSing your vote, and tunneling you to an extent (didn't prevent me from posting walls though!). No big rush, I've been taking a short break from the thread too re: baz's comment about personal dialogues!

After all there are (three-ish) scum that need rooting out, so other suspects are needed regardless.

Yes and no. The cop investigation part would only work if they were in it together, true (or the variation you outlined -- I thought of that, too). And even though I formulated that post fairly confidently, it was something of a long shot; I do not quite have the hubris to claim I've correctly identified two members of the mafia on day two (it would be nice, though). I got my reactions, now I'm in the re-evaluation stage.

As for the theory outlined in The Death of Jailer Jack back in post #191, that only relies on Orryrro being mafia, and even that not very strongly, so it stands. I'm still fairly sure about that one.

Roosh's editing has been noticed. I will decide how to deal with it, and get back to you later today. Also - votecount.

@Damuna: While I recognize that you care about players following the rules, I would appreciate it if you stopped backseat-modding my game.

Fair enough. I didn't know if you'd thought about what I said there, since you did put a FoS on jess for your cop investigation theory alone. I agree with you that Orryrro's insistence for an investigation can be seen as odd and therefore suspicious (hence my modified version of your theory above). I really have no reason to suspect jesskitten though.

Anyway I had some more stuff I wanted to say, but I have to go to work unfortunately.

My request for an investigation on me was under the assumption that damnation was indeed mafia, that way you could lynch one of the two he named in his "confession" had I known he was a vanilla townie, or he didn't make those claims then I wouldn't have seconded the request for an investigation.

Hmmmm - lots of new stuff to go at.

I've been looking back at Damnations lynch, and have a couple of things to say about it.

My reasoning here is based on at least one Mafia member being on the Damnation Bandwagon. It was a very strong Bandwagon lead by ghost, but I reckon at least one
Mafia would be on. Takes a strong will not to help a mis-lynch along at some point, I would think..

So, 7 voters. I'll look at them in turn.

Roosh - 99% sure Town - doublevoting Mafia? I dont think so, and other players have pointed oiut its a very rare role in a relatively newbie game.

Jesskitten - I'm having lots of trouble with you this time round, because (for reasons im coming to) I do quite strongly believe Ghost to be town, and the attack on her you made was out of character for you - #209. Baz picked up on it and for me post 228 confirms it - you realise it was a slip of sorts and tried to cover your ass.

nMillar - Town, dead

Orryrro - voting for you, and stays with you - nothing you have said or done, day one or two, has made me doubt my suspicions one bit. In fact you dig yourself further into trouble with every post - I dont buy your last explanation, I think it was a draw for cop investigation.

Robbeasy - Me! I'm Town, I know I'm town.

Damnation - Town , Dead.

Ghost - Somewhat a loose cannon, but a much stronger Town read than Mafia for me - it would take a gutsy Mafia to go out like you did first day, and your reactions second day still fit character - even though you are almost pleading with yourself to calm down, you still cant resist posting up your mafia 'team' as you see them (#198). No Mafia would indulge in that much boat rocking...

So, where am I going with this? Im thinking there were at least one if not two Mafia votes on Damnation yesterday, and with two dead, one outed as a doublevoter so 99% town, and me out, it leaves Jess, Orryrro and Ghost. Ghost I'm putting to one side for reasons above, so all my attention is on Jess and Orryrro for the foreseeable future....

I'm aware theres other ways of looking at Damnations lynch, and that my theory also puts me in the frame, if you buy the supposition of one or two Mafia voters.

Thoughts, anyone?....

Yes, mainly that I'm failing to get why people think Ghost led the attack on Damnation because she never voted on him up till the very bitter end. That's classic 'waiting for others to mislynch and do your dirty work for you'.

What slip was there in #209? #228 was me realising that after the post war we had going there, a good portion of the rest of the town went silent - and that's not productive for the town. I think my points on her are still fairly strong.

Sorry, how can you remotely claim that Ghost didnt lead the attack on Damnation? Just a quick reread of yesterday shows us Ghost was loudest and longest in her hounding!! As for the ' waiting for others to mislynch and do your dirty work for you' - that is also for me a pointless argument, as all could tell Ghost was sure 100% Damnation was Mafia. Ghost knew if Damnation flipped town she was going to be under scrutiny - it matters not a jot that she voted for him early, late, or indeed not at all.

Blimey - looking at what I wrote, it looks like some sort of Ghost appreciation society ramble. But I do think your argument doesnt stand up here.

Yes, and that's the thing.. she did vocally lead the attack on him at first, but did not put a vote on him until the end.

Vote analysis time:

The votes on Damnation were:
Roosh #40
Baz #75
Baz #96 unvote
me (jess) #105
nmillar #117
Orry #123
you (Robb) #128
Damnation himself #129
Ghost #156

If you were townie and grilling a suspect and reasonably sure he was Mafia, especially when others were starting to gather on the wagon as well, why would you purposely stay off the wagon?

She was on a wagon with 0. Zero. Zilch other people, except YOU for a good portion of the day, while arguing against Damnation.

Her votes were:
Baz #30
Baz unvote #35 (it garnered 1 vote - Vitek - by the time she unvoted)
you (Robb) #37
you (Robb) unvote #63 (garnered 0 votes by the time she unvoted)
Orry #63
Orry unvote #156 (garnered 1 vote - Robb - by the time she unvoted)
Damnation #156 (HAMMER).

What the hell is that? If she were interested in lynching him, and supposedly leading her attack, can you explain her voting pattern? Arguing vehemently against a player is all well and nice, but arguing and not voting for them nor voting for a remotely viable alternate bandwagon is a strong scumtell because what she essentially did here is try to make that early case on Damnation, but stay off the wagon on other ABSOLUTELY SAFE wagons, with ZERO percent chance of mislynch, until the very end. Keeping her hands mostly clean of blood while trying to look like the "leader".

More and more likely I'm beginning to suspect she voted a couple of her Mafia partners on Day 1, and "cleared" them all on Day 2 by virtue of that argument about refusing to suspect D1 suspects any longer because a couple were wrong.

hmmmmmm - ok you have a point. Still think shes Town though - just the act of bringing down the hammer herself on Damnation would be risky for Mafia, no ? Be interesting to get her comments on this exchange....

ok back to the drawing board i go.....

Jess, Robb: I don't know if you just lost yourselves in the heated argument, but if you looked at your premises more carefully, you'd see they are plain wrong.

The fact that someone was voting for someone is important.
The fact that someone was aggressively attacking someone is just as important.

Jess, you seem to be working with a strange idea that voting for someone is more suspicious than verbally attacking them. It's not. It's just another thing the players do, and carries as much weight. This is why some of us keep saying Ghost was attacking Damnation -- because she plainly was. The fact that she didn't vote for him as well is interesting, yes, but not voting for him doesn't make her attacks any less noteworthy. There very clearly is "blood on her hands" even if she didn't vote for Damnation until the last minute. Voting patterns are not the be-all and end-all.

At this point, I feel I have to repeat what I said earlier to prevent misunderstandings: in my book, Ghost is not cleared of suspicion, not even remotely. But to base your assessment of her, or anyone else for that matter, on votes only is a gross oversimplification.

Reading back, my strongest suspicion today is still Vitek. He actually told Ghost she should lynch Damnation on two seperate occasions during D1 even though he claims he didnt think Damnation was mafia. Also, he claims that hammering Damnation would have seemed less suspicious than pushing Ghost to do it. Then why not do just that?

vote Vitek

Some other food for thought, I noticed both JessKiteen and Orryrro said that the cop should investigate Orryrro. This seems suspicious to me as it could indicate that Orryrro is a godfather and Jesskitten is collaborating with him

I also have to agree with what others have said that Typhoon seems dodgy. He claimed to be focused on a major project that was preventing him from writing long posts both before and after his decently long post #205. Unfortunately, this is one of the complications of forum mafia over the real-life version. There is no way to prove or disprove how much someone's life is interfering with the game.

Well you seem to be misinterpreting my point there, with that summary. The closest compromise I can change your starting sentence there to match what I mean is that "verbally attacking them and not voting them" is indeed more scummy than "verbally attacking them and voting them," in this context. Hell, she called him an outright scum here early on, but deigned to place her vote on him until after he had claimed scum, despite the size of Damnation's versus Orry's wagon as the day went on.

If you think X and Y are both scum and a bandwagon is forming on X, and no one's currently voting with you on Y, why wouldn't you switch and push X? She was actively posting after the Orry bandwagon fell apart and the Damnation one built, and yet was orchestrating it from afar, arguing her case on him without voting, safe on her 1-vote bandwagon until after he had shot himself with his claim. Doesn't strike me as a townie based on the interpretation of her actions.

I could go back and point out her D1 attack on Damnation really started with a defensive argument and a veiled threat when he attacked her for the exact same reason I am now, vote wagon analysis (by the way while she defended that argument there in #78 just fine, I am reusing it here in a totally different context). But I doubt anyone (including myself) wants to have another wall of quotes from me to rip apart Day 1 posts so I'll just ask people to read back with my viewpoint in mind. But to be clear, I'm not basing the attack on votes only, her actual votes by themselves are not at all scummy. I'm trying to show the wishy-washiness, and how she contradicts herself with her votes as opposed to her writing of things like her declaration of him being scum, and how that does not seem townie.

@Robb, there was absolutely no risk in voting or hammering after Damnation had claimed scum. Regardless of her alignment, it was more than a fair move and foregone conclusion by then. I don't find that inherently scummy at all, except the way she's using that to justify being on the Damnation bandwagon, when she damned well was not.

@Rest of the town that haven't chipped in. Any thoughts? You sure as hell don't have to agree with me either. Baz isn't but I think his posting style is fairly town so far for various reasons.

Anyway lunch. :)

I think I did lose myself a little - did you notice?...;o)

I find it interesting Jess jumped straight in after my theory post, but not to defend herself, to attack someone else. I still got a beady eye on you, somethings not sitting quite right.

No doubt Ghost will return at some point to put her own viewpoint on things - still believe she is town, but shes not entirely off my radar, I think I may have given that impression with the defending I've been doing of her...;o))

No, its Orryrro for me. Slipped easily onto the Damnation Bandwagon, made some slips in posting, not doing anything to convince me he's anything but Mafia.