mrkgnao: On the other hand, what are the chances of her being town three games in a row?
adaliabooks: Well... assuming the normal ratio of scum the we probably have 3 or 4 scum. So say... rounded to about 5 in 7?
Unfortunately statistics don't care about previous results, so being town the last two games shouldn't really have an effect (assuming roles are assigned randomly?)
I think 4 is unlikely. That would give the scum an almost unfair advantage.
If I remember correctly, the "bare bones" mathematical model says the chances of scum and town are equal when the number of scum is the square root of the number of total players (for 13, about 3.6). And that's a very crude model, where everyone votes randomly throughout the game.
I don't expect there to be more than 3.
And I think it's a given that roles are assigned randomly.