Seriously. Still not expecting him to help his own case much.

Still, such a fun surprise this morning. CSPVG, who gets as far as L1, is forced into attention and drops the bomb on us all with a Town Doctor role claim. My first reaction was “Oh snazzbucket, he just handed in his death certificate.” I un-voted while trying to sort this out, as did Vitek… so for now he still has three votes (Robb, HijacK, Trent). I’m going to organize some thoughts on the current situation, despite the risk of drawing harsh criticism from the man on the halter himself. Because:

My reputation will just have to take the risk.

So again, we can think of this in terms of a decision matrix. (Yes, Krypsyn, I went to school for this as well.)

Scum/Telling Truth: Not applicable.

Scum/Lying: Of course, if you feel this way, lynch is mandatory. The trick is whether or not the risk is worth it:

Town/Telling Truth: The end result of Hijack's risky play? Many complications here. Let’s assume no counter-claim for now. If he is the Doc and gets lynched, no explanation is needed at just how bad that would be. If we lynch elsewhere, a true WIFOM crisis could arise. Do scum kill the Doc, once ID’d? The logical answer is yes. Again, with no counter-claim, there is probably little reason not to night kill, as there would be little guilt left to pin on him… which might be why they don’t do it. Think of all the confusion that would cause. I believe this would be the worst possible outcome.

Town/Lying: This would be a strange play. If this were the truth, one would have to think CSPVG, feeling perhaps that death couldn’t be averted, takes one for the team in order to draw “scumhammer” and preserve the real doctor, hoping to draw the night kill. Then on Day 3, we analyze the wagon, and the doctor is still in play. It seems barely plausible, but depends on many other pieces fitting together. (“real” doctor doesn’t counter-claim, scum buys the gambit, scum doesn’t night kill elsewhere to create confusion)


Summary: The risk of lynching is that he flips town, and we lose a powerful role. The risk of no-lynch is that we must find a better candidate, and then CSPVG is either NK’d (losing the doc) or not (creating confusion). Lots of risk either way.

Extra monkey wrench if we see a counter-claim, which I am doubting will happen at this point. If it does, tear this up and start all over again.

Before I make my decision to re-vote or move on to yet another candidate, I would like to hear from at least the three still on the wagon as to their plans.