I have just started to read the posts from last night and want to ask this before it goes to a lunch..

You clam to have protected yogs..yet you were starting to build a case for him in day 1. Can you explain this?

I do see above that yogs has hinted at my last statement but can you please explain your change in view on yogs enough that you would protect him? I have a theory but I do not want to put words in your mouth and would like to hear your reasoning.

I am not the one to answer it but why is that even question?

I am curious for CSPVG to respond to above but even if he chooses not too. I am still not sold on him being scum and even less now that he has role claimed. If he is the DR. it is not in the interest of us to lynch him. I think we should go over the votes and talk about this and see if we can come up with anything and I think we should go back and talk about others who we think are scum. If CSVPG is really a DR we should not lynch him..sadly the mafia will do that tonight. This gives us the opportunity to try to lynch scum instead.

Vitek votes
robbeasy votes
hijacK votes
yogslogh votes
trenton votes
vitek unvotes

**CSPVG claims.

yogsloth unvotes
darko unvotes Krypsyn

One thing for me with going over his day one post yesterday that stood was his start of a case for yogs and then posting at all until his hammer for books. I am curious if he saw something to change his mind.

Why?

He didn't vote CSPVG. I believe it's a safe assumption that at least one scum is on CSPVG's wagon.

In fairness, I would have if his defense hadn't rung true to me (and a Doctor claim has to be taken seriously anyway). He was 'Leaning Scum" in my reads list after all, and he hadn't done much to change my opinion since making it.

I hate these assumptions! Why do you think it is a safe one?!

WTH?! I am dead???
That's sad. RIP me.

Have you checked my stat?
I am not saying it is holy grail (maybe a little) and I am not digging Darko's reasoning too much but it indeed showed that out of 40 completed town lynches, only 1 of them lacked mafia player if at least 2 mafia were still alive.
It's true this is not completed wagon, and stat is not warrancy for future, though.

Yes, and I agree that it is a strong probability. I just don't like the "safely assume" remark. It almost seems as if DarkoD13 wants to accept it as fact and gloss over the possibility that it is not the case.

I love gloss.

I will reword what Vitek said above in the way I used to on all my reports: "Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results." Gotta love investment analysists... amirite? heh. :P

I'll hold my breath for days in anticipation of CSPVG's reply.

Seriously. Still not expecting him to help his own case much.

Still, such a fun surprise this morning. CSPVG, who gets as far as L1, is forced into attention and drops the bomb on us all with a Town Doctor role claim. My first reaction was “Oh snazzbucket, he just handed in his death certificate.” I un-voted while trying to sort this out, as did Vitek… so for now he still has three votes (Robb, HijacK, Trent). I’m going to organize some thoughts on the current situation, despite the risk of drawing harsh criticism from the man on the halter himself. Because:

My reputation will just have to take the risk.

So again, we can think of this in terms of a decision matrix. (Yes, Krypsyn, I went to school for this as well.)

Scum/Telling Truth: Not applicable.

Scum/Lying: Of course, if you feel this way, lynch is mandatory. The trick is whether or not the risk is worth it:

Town/Telling Truth: The end result of Hijack's risky play? Many complications here. Let’s assume no counter-claim for now. If he is the Doc and gets lynched, no explanation is needed at just how bad that would be. If we lynch elsewhere, a true WIFOM crisis could arise. Do scum kill the Doc, once ID’d? The logical answer is yes. Again, with no counter-claim, there is probably little reason not to night kill, as there would be little guilt left to pin on him… which might be why they don’t do it. Think of all the confusion that would cause. I believe this would be the worst possible outcome.

Town/Lying: This would be a strange play. If this were the truth, one would have to think CSPVG, feeling perhaps that death couldn’t be averted, takes one for the team in order to draw “scumhammer” and preserve the real doctor, hoping to draw the night kill. Then on Day 3, we analyze the wagon, and the doctor is still in play. It seems barely plausible, but depends on many other pieces fitting together. (“real” doctor doesn’t counter-claim, scum buys the gambit, scum doesn’t night kill elsewhere to create confusion)


Summary: The risk of lynching is that he flips town, and we lose a powerful role. The risk of no-lynch is that we must find a better candidate, and then CSPVG is either NK’d (losing the doc) or not (creating confusion). Lots of risk either way.

Extra monkey wrench if we see a counter-claim, which I am doubting will happen at this point. If it does, tear this up and start all over again.

Before I make my decision to re-vote or move on to yet another candidate, I would like to hear from at least the three still on the wagon as to their plans.